MicroStrategy is better than Coinbase for crypto exposure: Berenberg

  • Berenberg analysts sees upside in MicroStrategy to $340.
  • They explain their bullish view in a recent research note.
  • Coinbase stock has a “hold” rating only at Berenberg.

MicroStrategy Inc is a better pick for exposure to cryptocurrencies than Coinbase Global Inc, as per the Berenberg analysts.

MicroStrategy stock has upside to $340

Mark Palmer and Hassan Saleem see upside in the technology company to $340 a share – up another 20% from here. In a recent research note, they said:

MicroStrategy which features a unique business model focused on the acquisition and holding of bitcoins, represents an attractive alternative to Coinbase in the current environment.

At writing, the Nasdaq-listed firm owns about 140,000 BTC in total. Earlier in May, MicroStrategy said it took an impairment charge of $170 million on its bitcoin holdings in the first quarter.

Its stock price has already nearly doubled since the start of the year.

Why is Berenberg dovish on Coinbase stock?

On Coinbase, Berenberg analysts have a “hold” rating with a price objective of $55 a share – roughly in line with where it’s currently trading.

They’re dovish primarily due to the ongoing regulatory scrutiny. In March, the crypto exchange received a “Wells Notice” from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Coinbase’s revenue is at risk in the event of an enforcement action are disproportionately profitable relative to its total revenue.

In comparison, MicroStrategy focuses on bitcoin that’s already been classified as a commodity and not a security thereby insulating it from such risks. The correlation between MSTR and COIN currently stands at about 0.96.

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Why is the crypto market up today? Imminent debt ceiling vote boosts the market

Key takeaways

  • The cryptocurrency market is up by more than 2% today after underperforming for the best part of May.

  • Bitcoin topped the $28k mark for the first time this month.

  • The rally comes as President Biden and the House leadership reached an agreement on the debt ceiling.

Crypto Market Cap Reaches $1.16 Trillion

The cryptocurrency market performed well over the weekend, with most coins and tokens trading in the green zone.

For the first time this month, the total cryptocurrency market cap reached the $1.16 trillion threshold for the first time this month. 

The rally comes following an agreement between President Biden and the House leadership on United States’ debt ceiling. President Biden and congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement to suspend the federal government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling over the weekend. 

However, the deal still has to pass through Congress later this week. The vote is expected to take place on Wednesday before the United States runs out of money to pay its debts in early June.

The deal sparked optimism amongst investors that the United States would not default on its debt. If the US default on its debt, a recession would likely follow, and this could see the financial markets experience massive losses. 

Bitcoin Rallies To $28k 

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency by market cap, touched the $28k level for the first time in three weeks. Bitcoin started May trading above $29k per coin but plunged to a low of $26,008 last week. At press time, the price of Bitcoin stands at $27,953 per coin. 

The leading cryptocurrency is now slowly recovering, thanks to the positive news from the United States. 

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency in the world, also moved past the $1,900 level for the first time in weeks, adding more than 3% to its value in the last 24 hours. At press time, the price of Ether stands at $1,904. 

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Bitcoin supply in loss at 68% after BTC price drop from $31k local top

  • Bitcoin supply in loss has risen to 68%, with 6.67 million BTC under water water at current spot price.
  • Indeed, on-chain data shows 2.71 million BTC has fallen into loss as Bitcoin price dropped from the $31k local top.
  • With sell-side risk ratio approaching its all-time lows, Glassnode analyst James Check says BTC could see a big move to either side.

Bitcoin’s price has dropped about 14.6% since rejecting at the local top of $30.9k, and the result has been a sharp rise in the total amount of supply in loss.

The leading cryptocurrency’s current spot price is around $26.4k, after the week was spent in a tight range below the key resistance level of $27.6k. Although Bitcoin retested levels above $28k multiple times this month, the drawdown below $27k has bulls staring at a potential dip to support at $25k or lower.

But even as this outlook materializes, about 2.71 million BTC has drifted underwater. The BTC supply in loss, according to data shared by on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, is equivalent to about 14% of the benchmark crypto’s circulating supply.

This raises the total supply in loss across the aforementioned period from 3.96M to 6.67M BTC, a 68.4% increase,” Glassnode noted.

$45k or $20k? Analysts weigh in on BTC price movement

Earlier this week, Glassnode lead analyst James Check said Bitcoin could see a “big move” in coming weeks amid seller exhaustion. Pointing to on-chain-data, Check explained:

Bitcoin Sell-side Risk ratio is approaching all-time lows. This indicates that investors are reluctant to spend coins which are in profit, or loss within the current price range. This usually occurs when sellers are exhausted on both sides, suggesting big moves are coming.”

On Wednesday, JPMorgan lead strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said Bitcoin could rise 25% in the next 12 months. In a note to clients, Panigirtzoglou highlighted the price of gold rallying to a new multi-year high above $2k as the potential lead for BTC to hit $45k.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin and gold have often traded in sync. Bitcoin’s upcoming halving will also play a role in ticking up prices of the digital asset. Recently, analysts at Standard Chartered predicted a 70% gain for BTC price, outlining the $100k as a target.

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Binance CEO says “it’s a big deal” after China broadcast crypto on state TV

  • Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao says China’s state TV crypto broadcast is “a big deal.” 
  • He notes that previous coverage has historically been bullish for crypto.
  • His comments come as Bitcoin price struggled to stay above $26k on Wednesday.

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, popularly known as CZ, says China broadcasting a crypto segment on state broadcaster China Central Television is “a big deal” and that such broadcasts have previously coincided with a subsequent uptick in crypto prices.

According to CZ, the broadcast has “Chinese speaking communities buzzing,” given how such coverage of Bitcoin have ended with crypto price rallying.

“It’s a big deal. The Chinese speaking communities are buzzing,” he tweeted on Wednesday. “Historically, coverages like these led to bull runs.”

He however, noted that his comments do not mean that the “past predicts the future.” The Binance CEO, who is one of the biggest crypto proponents in the world, added a disclaimer that his remarks did not constitute financial advice.

Bitcoin features in Chinese TV broadcast

The referenced broadcast shows a Bitcoin ATM in the increasingly crypto-friendly Hong Kong. The crypto teller machine also shows a bitcoin logo and a “Buy Bitcoins” inscription. The TV segment also featured commentary on NFTs.

But it should be remembered that China banned bitcoin (again) in 2021.

As highlighted here on Tuesday, Bitcoin price rose briefly to touch the $27,500 resistance area as Hong Kong announced retail investors would from 1 June be able to buy and trade bitcoin and Ethereum on regulated exchanges.

Experts hailed Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC)’s announcement as a potential game changer for crypto adoption. The framework comes as Hong Kong looks to position itself as a leading crypto and blockchain hub, while at the same time offering guidelines and rules that target greater protection for consumers.

Bitcoin has not had a major reaction to the latest China related news, and was struggling to remain above $26k as at 1:50 pm ET on Wednesday. According to data from CoinGecko, BTC was perched at $26,300, down 3.2% in the past 24 hours. 

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Bitcoin on-chain metric suggests “big move” is incoming, expert says

  • Bitcoin could see a volatile phase within the $40k and $22k price range, James Check, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode says.
  • BTC’s sell-side risk ratio is approaching an all-time low, with traders on both sides showing exhaustion after recent price action.
  • The flagship crypto traded at $26,400 on Wednesday, about 3% down in the past 24 hours.

On-chain metrics for Bitcoin suggests the flagship cryptocurrency could be looking at massive price moves in the short term.

After struggling to break the $27,600 resistance level following dips from above $28,000, crypto experts have opined BTC could flip to new support. On the other hand, fresh impetus could catapult the asset past its year-to-date high of $31,000.

The outlook is down to on-chain data suggesting traders on both sides are exhausted, Glassnode lead analyst James Check says.

Also going by the pseudonym “Checkmate” on Twitter, the analyst noted:

Bitcoin Sell-side Risk ratio is approaching all-time lows. This indicates that investors are reluctant to spend coins which are in profit, or loss within the current price range. This usually occurs when sellers are exhausted on both sides, suggesting big moves are coming.”

What next for Bitcoin price?

Realized Profit and Loss metrics provide somewhat an understanding of the Bitcoin market, according to the analyst. It is these indicators that offer BTC price outlook from the point of holders’ sentiment, capital flows and behaviour patterns.

That’s what currently suggests Bitcoin price could be setting up for a prolonged reaccumulation phase.

Bitcoin usually has a 12ish month reaccumulation period after a bottom (if that is indeed what is in place),” Check tweeted.

According to him, Bitcoin price could see some volatile action between the $40k and $22k range. For traders looking for a definite signal, the analyst says it’s largely “directionless.” Checkmate said:

This is somewhat directionless, it suggests volatility is coming. Note that Nov 2018 also saw a very low value. [It] indicates traders are exhausted in this price range, and doesn’t tell us which price range they want to move towards.”

Bitcoin was trading around $26,400 on Wednesday morning 9:53 am ET, and was about 3% down in the past 24 hours. 

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