Ethereum price prediction: ETH derivatives data shows weak momentum

  • ETH derivatives show weak momentum despite strong ETF inflows.
  • Ethereum’s network activity and TVL continue to decline.
  • Technical analysis hints at long-term upside, but traders stay cautious.

Ethereum (ETH) has seen a strong price surge in recent weeks, gaining more than 54% over the past month and trading at around $3,755 at press time.

However, despite this rally and strong spot ETF inflows, derivatives market data paints a very different picture, casting doubt on whether Ethereum can break through the psychologically significant $4,000 level any time soon.

In essence, the disconnect between bullish institutional inflows and weak derivatives metrics raises several questions for market participants.

Is Ethereum’s recent rally sustainable, or is it merely a reflection of speculative optimism driven by ETF hype?

Furthermore, are investors losing confidence in Ethereum’s network fundamentals amid rising competition from rival blockchains?

Derivatives market tells a cautious tale

While Ethereum’s spot market has been energised by inflows into exchange-traded funds, futures data shows traders are hesitant to commit to leveraged bullish positions.

As of Thursday, the annualised funding rate for ETH perpetual futures had fallen back to 9%, down from 19% earlier in the week, with the ETH OI-weighted funding rate dropping to 0.0043% from 0.0163% on July 21.

ETH OI-weighted funding rate

This suggests waning demand for long positions, even after a near 46% gain in ETH price since early July.

This behaviour is unusual. Historically, rising prices coincide with stronger futures premiums, yet the current trend indicates hesitation.

The 3-month ETH futures premium has also softened slightly to 6%, down from 8% just days ago.

While this still sits within a neutral range, it reveals a reluctance among whales and market makers to bet aggressively on further price appreciation in the near term.

Ethereum network weakness frustrates investors

The cautious tone in derivatives is likely being fueled by stagnant on-chain activity.

Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) dropped to a five-month low of 23.4 million ETH, falling 11% in just 30 days.

That sharp decline comes despite ETH’s rising dollar value and highlights a significant reduction in the volume of assets being deployed within the ecosystem.

In contrast, Solana’s TVL only fell 4% during the same period, while BNB Chain’s TVL rose 15% in native token terms.

These shifts show that competing platforms are either maintaining or growing their utility at a time when Ethereum’s activity appears to be plateauing.

Even more concerning is Ethereum’s decline in dominance among decentralised exchange (DEX) volumes.

According to DefiLlama, Ethereum recorded $81.32 billion in DEX activity over the past month.

Solana surpassed that with $82.9 billion, while BNB Chain led with a staggering $189.2 billion.

These figures highlight that Ethereum is no longer the go-to platform for certain core DeFi activities.

Technical analysis signals a mixed ETH price outlook

Despite lukewarm derivative activity, technical analysts remain divided on Ethereum’s future trajectory.

Popular investor Ivan On Tech has pointed to a symmetrical triangle pattern that could lead to a breakout toward $7,709, more than double the current price.

Meanwhile, another analyst, Mikycrypto Bull, has identified a long-term ascending triangle formation dating back five years, which could theoretically launch ETH as high as $16,700.

Adding to the bullish sentiment is a recent MACD crossover on the monthly chart, a signal that has preceded major rallies in previous cycles.

However, while long-term technicals hint at explosive potential, short-term forecasts are more cautious.

ETH must first break through $4,100 and hold above $3,700 to sustain its upward momentum.

Corporate confidence grows amid market doubts

Institutional and corporate adoption of Ethereum continues to grow.

Firms such as SharpLink Gaming and World Liberty Financial have accumulated substantial ETH reserves in recent months.

SharpLink now holds over 438,000 ETH and actively stakes its assets to generate passive income.

World Liberty Financial has acquired over 77,000 ETH, with recent purchases near $3,294 per coin.

These moves suggest that some institutions are positioning Ethereum as a long-term strategic asset.

Their investments reflect confidence in Ethereum’s evolving role as foundational infrastructure for decentralised applications and finance.

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Solana DEX volume dips 20% after co-founder slams meme coins

  • Solana’s DEX volume has lost nearly $700 million since Monday.
  • The downside follows comments from its co-founder criticizing meme tokens and NFTs.
  • The remarks sparked debates, especially since meme cryptos have fueled Solana’s growth.

The latest comments from Solana’s co-founder, Anatoly Yakovenko, left speculative trading enthusiasts shaken.

Meanwhile, the blockchain reflects the impact on the decentralized exchange (DEX) front.

Yakovenko dismissed NFTs and meme coins as assets without intrinsic value in a July 27 X post.

He compared them to a mobile game loot box, which serves speculative individuals.

Meanwhile, the comments dented sentiments as Solana’s DEX volume has seen a 220% decline from Monday’s $3.071 billion to $2.374 billion today.

While sudden dips are not uncommon in the cryptocurrency industry, some participants are connecting the dots.

Meme cryptos have fueled Solana’s growth

It is the irony that grabbed the community’s attention. While meme tokens lack traditional utility, they have been vital in Solana’s latest boom.

Nearly all themed cryptocurrencies that have dominated trends in the past few years launched on the SOL blockchain.

PNUT, WIF, FARTCOIN, and the current PENGU, you can name them.

Furthermore, Solana boasts the largest meme launchpads (Pump.fun and Raydium).

At times when top chains like Ethereum and Cardano were quiet, Solana flourished due to viral meme assets and NFTs.

Moreover, leading Solana DEXs like Jupiter thrived during meme coin seasons.

With these trends, Solana attained a strong community, culture, profits, and growth momentum.

Thus, many equate Yakovenko’s comments to biting the hand that fed their ecosystem.

Solana-based exchanges have experienced substantial slowdowns days following the controversial comments.

Whether the 20% slide is a usual cool-off or a reaction to Yakovenko’s remarks, Solana’s ecosystem took a hit.

The tone might have discouraged some participants, who are likely considering alternative meme launchpads.

For digital assets enthusiasts, meme tokens and NFTs represent culture, accessibility, and creativity in the crypto industry.

Moreover, they lower entry barriers into Web3.

Meme tokens lack value, but drive excitement

Yakovenko’s comments weren’t unfounded. Most meme tokens lack utility beyond attention.

They face criticism since they lack legitimate backing, use cases, and the fact that most creators launch them as speculative plays.

Projects can record staggering surges overnight and crash within minutes.

You probably remember the controversial LIBRA case.

Libra surged to $224 million market capitalization project before crashing within hours, leaving its investors with massive losses.

Its current market cap is $3.94 million.

Hype, not fundamentals, dictates the life cycles of most meme coins.

However, they also work. While themed cryptocurrencies lack substance, they attract attention and excitement in the digital currency markets.

Also, they onboard retailers who want to join the market without navigating complex protocols.

This phenomenon has benefited Solana, putting it in the spotlight during periods when top blockchains felt dormant.

Though Yakovenko’s remarks appear true, they exposed the fragility between market behavior and logic in crypto.

Besides decentralization, the fun side of the blockchain industry remains vital for the sector’s liveliness.

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IP token jumps 12% as Grayscale launches Story Trust

  • Grayscale Investments has launched the Grayscale Story Trust to offer accredited investors exposure to IP token.
  • Grayscale’s announcement saw IP price jump 12% to hit highs of $6.41.
  • Bulls could target a new all-time high.

Grayscale Investments, the world’s leading digital asset management firm, has launched a new crypto investment product, the Grayscale Story Trust.

The product, announced on July 31, 2025, is designed to offer accredited investors access to a digital asset product allowing for exposure to Story Network’s native token IP.

Grayscale launches Story Trust

On July 31, 2025, Grayscale announced the launch of its Grayscale Story Trust, a product the asset manager says will expose investors to a project set to play a key role in the global intellectual property economy. Currently, the IP economy stands at over $80 trillion.

The Story network’s programmable IP focus aims to revolutionize the management, licensing, and monetization of intellectual property. Artificial intelligence (AI) and digital rights management are a major part of this growing market.

“Grayscale Story Trust gives investors exposure to a protocol shaping the foundational intellectual property layer for the information and AI era,said Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary, head of product & research at Grayscale.That includes not just creative content, but real-world data — the force powering one of today’s most advanced intelligent systems.”

IP price jumps 12% amid Grayscale news

Grayscale Investments has launched over 30 crypto investment products. Story Trust is the latest offering. It expands the firm’s diverse crypto offerings. However, there’s more.

The product also signals a pivotal moment for the integration of blockchain technology into the global IP market.

Story (IP) could be poised to lead this transformation, a scenario that could augur well for the native token’s price.

“The launch of Grayscale Story Trust reflects growing recognition that intellectual property, in all forms, has the potential to become one of the most important assets of the AI era. With $IP now available via a Grayscale Trust, investors can gain exposure to the infrastructure layer that enables programmable licensing and attribution across AI and creative applications,said SY Lee, chief executive officer and co-founder of PIP Labs, a core contributor to Story.

As the Grayscale news broke, IP price jumped 8% to hit highs of $6.35 at the time of writing.

With sentiment bullish and altcoins looking to extend upside momentum, Story’s native token could edge towards February 2025 highs of $7.12. Currently, the token is looking at a five-month high and could allow bulls to target the all-time high of $7.33 reached on February 26.

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SUI price outlook: bulls on edge as $173M token unlock looms

  • Sui gained 7% in the past day to $3.94 intraday high.
  • A massive unlock on August 1 sparks fears of potential bearish pressure.
  • Holdings above $0.275 could support imminent breakouts.

Digital currencies saw mild gains on Friday as the global crypto market cap increased by 0.55% the previous 24 hours to $3.9 trillion.

While most alts signal recoveries, SUI led today’s gainers with an over 7% surge to $3.94.

The uptrend has excited enthusiasts who are watching for new breakouts.

Nevertheless, the upcoming $173 million SUI unlock on August 1 has dented investor confidence due to potential selling pressure after the massive token release.

Can the altcoin withstand the bearish storm?

SUI’s August 1 unlock

Token unlocks are usual in the cryptocurrency market, but they often trigger anxiety as they can influence short-term price actions.

Sui’s upcoming unlock isn’t an exception.

According to Tokenomist, Sui will release 44 million tokens, worth around $173 million at current prices, on August 1.

That’s a massive figure, especially considering the prevailing broad market uncertainty and SUI’s market dynamics.

Significant token unlocks flood the markets, possibly introducing substantial selling pressure when recipients offload part of their balances.

In Sui’s case, the $173 million unlock could test its current momentum.

The altcoin trades at $3.95, and participants would now closely watch the ‘reliable’ support barrier at $3.75.

The foothold has previously held strong amid pullbacks.

If SUI holds $3.75 throughout unlock-driven volatility, it would be an optimistic signal.

Healthy performance after token release will indicate impressive demand despite the surge in supply.

Such an outlook would position Sui as a maturing blockchain unbothered by short-term events.

Bulls could hold the line after July’s robust performance

The primary question remains whether buyers can maintain control amidst the supply shock.

The latest uptick to $3.94 has renewed optimism about another breakout.

However, SUI should hold above the support at $3.75 to absorb the upcoming token supply without panic selling.

Meanwhile, SUI heads into August after an impressive monthly performance, which will likely add upside steam.

Sui’s total value locked closed July with a fresh all-time high above $2 billion after stable uptrends since late June.

A surging TVL is crucial since it confirms the chain’s overall financial health, highlighting increased adoption and growth.

It is a key liquidity indicator.

More total value locked makes it easier for individuals to execute trades without substantial price slippages.

Also, SUI’s decentralised exchange (DEX) volume hit record highs of $14.3 billion in July.

SUI’s current price outlook

The altcoin displayed impressive recoveries after hitting a low of $3.69 yesterday.

SUI trades at $3.94 with a 15% uptick in trading volume, demonstrating a possible momentum shift to the upside.

Short-term technical indicators suggest a buyer comeback.

The MACD has just made a bullish crossover with the signal line on the 3H timeframe.

Moreover, the RSI at 52 suggests neutral sentiments as bulls look to flip the script.

Holding $3.75 amid the looming unlock might support uptrends to the Monday high near $4.35, opening the path to $5.

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PENDLE token goes live on BeraChain and HyperEVM to expand cross-chain utility

  • The coin has expanded its presence beyond Ethereum.
  • Users can now enjoy streamlined cross-chain swaps through Stargate Finance.
  • Pendle boasts the highest positive sentiment in all DeFi coins in the past seven days.

Digital tokens painted price charts red on Wednesday as markets brace for the Fed’s rate policy.

Pendle extended its weekly losses to over 6% after losing 2% in the past 24 hours.

Intensified profit-booking after the recent growth contributes to PENDLE’s weakness.

However, the altcoin appears poised for a significant rebound as bullish catalysts emerge.

The team has confirmed that PENDLE is officially live on HyperEVM and BeraChain.

It represents a key step in Pendle’s multi-chain ambitions as it aims to push boundaries in decentralized finance (DeFi) yield trading.

Meanwhile, the expansion comes as the altcoin experiences bullish sentiments.

Data show PENDLE had the highest positive sentiments across all DeFi currencies over the past week.

With more individuals exploring Pendle, is a significant breakout on the horizon?

Pendle smoothens cross-chain access

The best thing about this development is the Stargate Finance integration.

It allows users to bridge between Ethereum, HyperEVM, and BeraChain smoothly.

That means users can access Pendle’s flourishing ecosystem regardless of their chain.

Moreover, the integration promises less friction, faster access, and fewer fees.

This is a game-changer for investors and DeFi enthusiasts.

Stargate’s bridge promises smoother capital flow across chains to solve one of the primary bottlenecks in DeFi – interoperability.

Furthermore, the move unlocks more utility for the PENDLE token in new liquidity hubs as HyperEVM and BeraChain protocols navigate Pendle’s yield markets.

Positive sentiments dominate the Pendle ecosystem

Multiple tracking platforms show PENDLE was the most positively discussed DeFi project over the past week.

It is beyond price actions.

The trend reflects the depth and tone of conversations about Pendle on crypto forums and social platforms like X and Telegram groups.

Such sentiments often indicate market direction.

It shows smart money watching the assets and possibly repositioning before bullish catalysts surface.

Rising bullish chatter and listing on new platforms shows Pendle is attracting attention and confidence as it solidifies its presence in the DeFi industry.

PENDLE price outlook

The altcoin traded in red, losing over 2% in the past 24 hours.

PENDLE hovers at $4.37, with a weakening trading volume reflecting dominant bearish tendencies in the broad market.

Also, it experienced considerable profit-taking after the latest rally from $3.2633 on 4 June to last week’s $4.8747.

Nonetheless, PENDLE hasn’t ruined its bullish structure. It trades well above the key support barriers of $3.60 and $2.80.

Continued declines to these levels could catalyze massive buying interest, if history repeats itself.

Bullish bounce-backs may clear the path for stable rallies toward $5.20 before extending to the psychological barrier at $7.

That would be an approximately 60% increase from PENDLE’s market price.

However, the $6.0 – $6.5 region will be a vital breakout area.

A decisive weekly closing above this zone could trigger intensified buying and propel PENDLE to the target at $12.0 – $14.

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