Who regulates prediction markets? Coinbase forces a US legal test

  • Coinbase argues the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive authority over event contracts.
  • Earlier cases involving Kalshi show courts have yet to settle the issue decisively.
  • The rulings could shape how prediction markets and related financial products develop nationwide.

Coinbase has taken its dispute with US regulators to court as it expands into prediction markets, filing lawsuits against authorities in Connecticut, Illinois, and Michigan.

The legal challenge centres on a fundamental question facing financial markets in the United States: whether prediction markets should be regulated at the federal level as financial derivatives or treated by states as gambling products.

Coinbase argues that the answer has already been set out in federal law.

State regulators disagree, setting up a clash that could redefine oversight for event-based markets tied to finance, politics, and real-world outcomes.

A jurisdictional battle takes shape

The exchange’s case is built around the Commodity Exchange Act, which grants the Commodity Futures Trading Commission authority over derivatives, including event contracts.

Coinbase maintains that prediction markets listed on CFTC-supervised platforms fall squarely within this framework.

From the company’s perspective, state efforts to apply local gambling laws amount to regulatory overreach.

Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, has positioned the lawsuits as a response to what the company sees as a direct conflict between federal authority and state enforcement.

Coinbase argues that allowing individual states to intervene risks creating a fragmented regulatory system that undermines national consistency. In that scenario, stricter jurisdictions could effectively block federally approved products across the country.

Gambling labels under scrutiny

A central issue in the lawsuits is how prediction markets are defined.

State regulators have moved to classify them alongside sports betting and casino-style gambling.

Coinbase rejects this comparison, arguing that the mechanics are fundamentally different.

Prediction markets operate as marketplaces that match buyers and sellers who take opposing views on future events.

Prices are set by market demand rather than by a house that manages odds.

Coinbase says this structure aligns prediction markets with derivatives trading, not wagering, and places them within the scope of federal commodities law rather than state gaming statutes.

Federal oversight and compliance claims

Coinbase has also pointed to the regulatory obligations attached to CFTC-supervised markets.

These include monitoring for manipulation, position limits, and ongoing compliance requirements designed to protect market integrity.

According to the exchange, these safeguards already address many of the consumer protection concerns cited by state regulators.

Ryan VanGrack, Coinbase’s Vice President of Legal, has argued that state-level intervention risks duplicating or conflicting with federal oversight.

The company maintains that pulling prediction markets under local gambling rules ignores how federally regulated derivatives markets operate and threatens uniform supervision.

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Terraform Labs liquidator sues Jump Trading for $4B in damages

  • Terraform Lab’s liquidator alleges Jump secretly propped up UST while misleading markets.
  • Court filings claim Jump gained billions through discounted Luna deals and early exits.
  • Jump denies wrongdoing as US courts revisit accountability beyond Do Kwon.

Terraform Labs’ bankruptcy estate has filed a sweeping lawsuit against market-making giant Jump Trading, accusing it and its executives of secretly manipulating the Terra ecosystem and profiting while the project unravelled.

The administrator overseeing Terraform’s liquidation is seeking $4 billion in damages, arguing that responsibility for one of crypto’s most destructive failures extends well beyond founder Do Kwon.

A collapse that reshaped crypto

The lawsuit revisits the dramatic implosion of TerraUSD and its sister token, LUNA, in 2022.

Terraform Labs built TerraUSD as an algorithmic stablecoin designed to maintain a one-dollar peg through trading incentives, rather than relying on reserves.

When that mechanism failed, confidence evaporated almost overnight.

Within days, LUNA entered a death spiral and more than $40 billion in market value was erased, sending shockwaves through the digital asset industry.

The fallout contributed to subsequent failures at major cryptocurrency lenders and hedge funds, ultimately deepening a crisis of trust across the sector.

Terraform Labs filed for bankruptcy in early 2024 and later agreed to pay roughly $4.5 billion to settle civil charges brought by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Do Kwon, the company’s co-founder, who pleaded guilty to criminal charges, was recently sentenced to 15 years in prison.

Secret deals behind the scenes

According to the bankruptcy estate, the story did not end with Kwon.

Todd Snyder, the court-appointed administrator managing Terraform’s liquidation, alleges that Jump Trading played a hidden and central role in propping up Terra long before its final collapse.

Court filings claim that Jump and Terraform entered undisclosed agreements as early as 2019.

Under those deals, Jump allegedly gained access to millions of Luna tokens at steep discounts.

One agreement cited in the complaint allowed the firm to buy LUNA for about $0.40 per token when the market price later exceeded $110.

The administrator claims these arrangements laid the groundwork for massive profits once Luna surged.

The lawsuit also points to an informal “gentlemen’s agreement” between Jump and Terraform.

According to Snyder, Jump secretly committed to supporting TerraUSD’s peg during periods of stress while Terraform publicly attributed any recovery to the strength of its algorithm.

The arrangement was allegedly concealed to avoid regulatory and market scrutiny.

The May 2021 warning signs

The lawsuit places particular emphasis on events in May 2021, when TerraUSD briefly lost its dollar peg.

At the time, Terraform said the stablecoin’s recovery proved the resilience of its design. The lawsuit now alleges a different reality.

Snyder claims that Jump intervened by purchasing large amounts of TerraUSD, masking fundamental weaknesses in the system.

Investors, he argues, were misled into believing the mechanism had worked as intended.

After that episode exposed flaws in Terra’s design, Jump allegedly negotiated to remove vesting and lockup provisions from its contracts.

Those changes allowed the firm to receive monthly Luna allocations and sell them immediately.

The administrator says this intensified selling pressure and positioned Jump to exit profitably as risks mounted.

Jump pushes back

Jump Trading has categorically rejected the allegations, and it intends to defend itself vigorously.

A company spokesperson has described the lawsuit as an attempt to shift blame away from Terraform Labs and Do Kwon.

Earlier in 2024, the SEC accused Jump’s crypto unit, Tai Mo Shan, of intervening during the May 2021 depeg and later profiting from unlocked LUNA sales.

Tai Mo Shan settled those claims for about $123 million without admitting wrongdoing.

During SEC questioning, both DiSomma and former Jump crypto president Kanav Kariya repeatedly invoked their Fifth Amendment rights.

For Snyder, the current lawsuit is about accountability. Even with Kwon behind bars, he argues that courts must still determine who knew what, who intervened, and who ultimately profited from Terra’s rise and fall.

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