BTC price forecast: Bitcoin stays below $112k ahead of Powell speech

TL;DR

  • BTC is down 3% in the last 24 hours and trading around $111,200 per coin.
  • The negative performance comes amid the ongoing U.S.-China tariff war and Powell’s speech later today.

BTC dips to $111k

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down 3% in the last 24 hours and is now trading around $111,200 per coin. The bearish performance comes amid rising US-China trade conflict, with traders expecting further volatility in the market.

In addition to that, the spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded an outflow of over $320 million on Monday, indicating that investors are taking a cautious approach to the market. 

Fed chair Jerome Powell is set to speak later today, with market participants focusing their attention on the event, which could spark fresh volatility across risk assets, such as Bitcoin.

Investors will be looking for fresh hints on the possibility of an interest rate cut later this month. However, with the ongoing US government shutdown limiting new economic data releases, Powell might offer little information on the upcoming FOMC meeting. 

Finally, on-chain data reveals that the wallet, referred to as BitcoinOG, which shorted BTC right before Friday’s dump last week, has increased its open short position earlier today. This latest development brings the total short position to over 4,394 BTC. 

Two other whales with significant profits on Hyperliquid have also opened large short positions in the market as they expect a further dump in the near term. 

BTC remains bearish as traders adopt a cautious approach

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and inefficient as Bitcoin has underperformed over the last 24 hours. BTC slightly recovered on Monday, hitting the $115k mark following Friday’s sharp decline. 

However, it has failed to maintain the momentum and is now trading at $111,200 per coin. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 42 on the 4H chart, which is below its neutral level of 50. The RSI indicates momentum is gaining traction. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover on Friday, remains bearish, suggesting further selling pressure. 

BTC/USD 4H Chart

If the BTC correction continues, the coin could dip lower towards the next major support level at $107,245. However, if the bulls regain control of the market, they could push the price towards the $115k resistance level once again.

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BNB faces pullback risk after 10% drop as charts signal overbought levels

  • BNB falls 10% as overbought signals suggest a short-term pullback toward the $1,000 level.
  • Technical charts show a bearish divergence, hinting at profit-taking and near-term weakness.
  • Analysts still see upside, with long-term targets up to $2,100 if bullish momentum resumes.

BNB (BNBUSD) has fallen 10% over the last 24 hours, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

The Binance-linked token, which recently hit a record high of $1,300 on Monday, has since seen a 13% drawdown, prompting speculation about whether its latest rally has run out of steam.

BNB enters overbought territory

The recent surge in BNB’s price has pushed technical indicators into overbought zones, suggesting potential for a short-term correction.

The token has recorded multiple all-time highs since late July, driving its weekly relative strength index (RSI) to 81 last week before easing to 71 — still above the overbought threshold of 70.

Historically, such elevated RSI readings have preceded steep corrections.

In 2021, a similar pattern led to a 70% drop, while another overbought signal in July 2024 resulted in a 44% pullback.

Analysts now believe a retreat toward the psychological $1,000 level is increasingly likely if these patterns repeat.

The 20-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMA), currently positioned between $730 and $860, could serve as key support zones in the event of a deeper decline.

These levels have previously helped cushion BNB’s price during market corrections.

Analyst Saint, in an X post, noted that BNB’s RSI “is currently in the overbought range across multiple periods,” suggesting “potential for price correction, which could lead to a consolidation or a pullback.”

Technical signals point to $1,000 target

Short-term charts further indicate potential downside.

A double-top formation visible on BNB’s four-hour chart projects a return to the pattern’s neckline at $1,000, implying a total decline of about 17% from current levels.

Adding to this bearish outlook, analysts have observed a growing divergence between BNB’s rising price and its falling RSI readings.

Between October 7 and Monday, the BNBUSD pair formed higher highs while the RSI posted lower highs — a classic bearish divergence.

Such divergences often hint at weakening bullish momentum and increased selling pressure as traders lock in profits.

If this trend persists, the $1,000 mark could become an important test of buyer strength in the coming days.

Long-term outlook remains bullish

Despite the latest setback, analysts remain broadly optimistic about BNB’s long-term prospects.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show that the token maintains a bullish structure on higher time frames.

The monthly chart continues to display a bull flag formation that has been in place since October 2023, signaling potential for an extended rally toward $2,100 — representing a 73% upside from current prices.

Several market watchers, including analysts Henry and CoinCentral, have reiterated their bullish outlooks.

Henry wrote that “BNB is still looking strong after the crash,” adding that the token could “flip ETH soon if it goes at the same speed.”

CoinCentral pointed to Binance’s recent $283 million payout to affected users and strong network activity as supportive factors that could sustain the uptrend.

For now, traders are watching whether the $1,000 support level holds — a key test that may determine whether BNB’s correction deepens or the next leg higher begins.

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Binance nears return to South Korea as regulators revisit Gopax stake review

  • Binance holds a 67% stake in Gopax, acquired in February 2023.
  • A $4.3 billion US settlement eased regulatory concerns in South Korea.
  • Gopax faced a $47 million liquidity shortfall linked to Genesis Global Capital.

South Korea is moving closer to allowing Binance back into its crypto market after nearly two years of uncertainty.

The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) has resumed its examination of Binance’s controlling stake in the domestic exchange Gopax, signalling that the world’s largest crypto platform may soon regain a foothold in one of Asia’s most tightly regulated markets.

The process centres on an executive-change filing that acts as a substitute for a direct ownership review. If cleared, Binance could regain full access to South Korean traders by late 2025, marking a critical milestone in its Asia strategy.

FIU’s assessment centres on leadership and control

Under South Korean law, regulators evaluate key executive changes rather than shareholder applications for crypto firms. This approach means the FIU’s scrutiny of Gopax’s leadership structure effectively doubles as a test of Binance’s suitability to own a controlling stake.

Binance purchased a 67% interest in Gopax in February 2023, becoming its largest shareholder. However, the approval process was paused amid concerns about anti-money-laundering compliance and the exchange’s legal challenges in the United States.

Those concerns were eased after Binance agreed to pay $4.3 billion in settlements with US authorities in 2023, which has since helped restore regulatory confidence in multiple jurisdictions, including South Korea.

The renewed review suggests regulators are now willing to evaluate Binance’s governance record rather than its legal past. Approval from the FIU would formalise Binance’s control and allow it to re-establish operations under Gopax’s licence.

Gopax’s liquidity crisis and Binance’s rescue effort

Gopax is among the limited number of South Korean exchanges permitted to handle won-denominated crypto transactions, which requires stringent Know-Your-Customer and anti-money-laundering safeguards.

The company faced severe financial strain in early 2023 when its decentralised-finance partner, Genesis Global Capital, halted withdrawals connected to Gopax’s GoFi yield product.

Around $47 million in customer assets became locked, eroding user confidence and liquidity.

Binance’s stake purchase was positioned as a stabilisation plan designed to replenish user funds and restore market trust.

Yet the prolonged approval delay forced Binance to consider selling part of its holding to local technology firm Megazone to meet domestic ownership expectations. The talks eventually fell through in late 2024, keeping Binance’s majority stake intact.

With the FIU now re-examining Gopax’s executive changes, Binance’s role as both investor and potential operator is once again under the spotlight.

Market analysts say the outcome will test whether global crypto exchanges can meet the compliance expectations of a country known for some of the world’s toughest digital-asset rules.

Policy tightening reshapes South Korea’s crypto sector

The FIU’s latest action coincides with a wider regulatory overhaul in South Korea. Authorities recently directed all crypto platforms to suspend retail lending products until a clear legal basis is introduced.

The government is also drafting frameworks for stablecoins linked to the Korean won and preparing to authorise the country’s first spot crypto exchange-traded funds.

Meanwhile, local market leader Dunamu—the operator of Upbit—has launched an institutional custody business that stores client assets exclusively in cold wallets to reduce exposure to cyberattacks.

These shifts highlight how South Korea is moving towards institutional-grade oversight while promoting investor protection through stricter governance.

By resuming the Gopax review, the FIU is signalling that foreign exchanges such as Binance may participate in this maturing landscape, provided they align with domestic compliance standards.

Potential breakthrough for global exchanges in Asia

A successful conclusion to the review could reshape Binance’s position in East Asia.

South Korea remains one of the region’s most active crypto markets by trading volume, and re-entry would strengthen Binance’s regional network following recent regulatory challenges in Japan and the Philippines.

For the South Korean market, a green light for Binance would also mark a symbolic shift—from exclusionary caution to selective engagement with global players that demonstrate regulatory cooperation.

The decision is expected later in 2025 and could serve as a benchmark for how international crypto companies are assessed in other jurisdictions with similar scrutiny requirements.

If approved, Binance’s full return through Gopax would underline a broader transformation: a move towards transparency, tighter controls, and restored confidence in an industry that continues to evolve under government watch.

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