Monat: August 2023

• LTC/BTC has been in a bearish trend for the last five years
• Bitcoin’s outperformance is likely to continue
• A descending triangle keeps the bearish bias intact

One of the most interesting markets to trade are cross pairs. Crosses are less liquid than major pairs and often move in tight ranges. This is a general rule for the classic currency market but also valid for cryptocurrency.

LTC/BTC is such a cross. It moves based on the differences in the prices of Litecoin and Bitcoin.

Since 2018, the market has been in a bearish trend. It means that Bitcoin has quite outperformed Litecoin in the past five years.

Litecoin chart by TradingView

The chart above shows that the cross formed a series of lower highs and lower lows – characteristic in bearish triangles. Also, the bearish bias remains strong due to the presence of a descending triangle.

A descending triangle is a bearish continuation pattern. Its measured move equals the size of the longest segment of the triangle, projected from the horizontal base.

Therefore, traders may want to wait for the triangle to break lower before shorting the cross with a stop at the previous lower high.

What moves a cross?

Other rates influence a cross pair’s movements. In this case, the LTC/BTC cross pair reflects the differences between the LTC/USD and BTC/USD pairs.

Because the cross is in a bearish trend, Bitcoin outperformed Litecoin in the last five years. In other words, it means that Bitcoin was a better investment than Litecoin. Given the bearish bias for the cross, Bitcoin’s outperformance should continue.

The post LTC/BTC bearish trend continues, as Bitcoin outperforms appeared first on CoinJournal.

• DOT/USD is in a triangular consolidation
• The bias remains bearish
• Conservative traders might want to wait for the market to move first

There is nothing positive in the DOT/USD chart for bulls. The price action remains constrained by a triangular pattern that formed in the last twelve months.

Sure enough, the triangle may break in either direction. But the bias is bearish while Polkadot’s price action holds inside the pattern.

Polkadot’s price collapsed after the triple failure at the $50 area. The dollar’s strength was one reason, but surely some other factors contributed to the selloff.

Not even the renewed optimism in the cryptocurrency market that was seen in 2023 was enough. After a small bounce, Polkadot gave away all of its 2023 gains as the market was (and still is) unable to break the lower highs series. At the same time, it pushes for another lower low – a bearish development.

Polkadot chart by TradingView

The bullish case for Polkadot

The only way to construct a bullish case for Polkadot is to wait for the market to move first simply. For a “proof of life,” if you want.

Such proof that the market turned bullish will appear only if the price moves above $8. And, if it holds there.

It would mean that the previous lower high is broken, and the bias turned bullish. Until such a move is seen on the daily chart, buying DOT/USD is risky.

The bearish case for Polkadot

It is easier to build a bearish case because of the descending triangle mentioned earlier. If the market makes a new lower low, the triangle’s measured move points to a drop toward the $1 area.

The post DOT/USD price forecast: A descending triangle keeps bulls at bay appeared first on CoinJournal.

• The US dollar is at an inflection point
• Core PCE data today is key
• The NFP report might miss expectations

Today marks the last trading day of the month. As usual, it means that volatility in financial markets will increase, especially during the London and North American sessions.

The US dollar’s volatility was a main driver for the cryptocurrency market this year. For instance, the dollar weakened since last October, as reflected by the EUR/USD bouncing from 0.95 and rallying to 1.12. At the same time, Bitcoin rallied too.

But as the EUR/USD could not hold above 1.12, nor did Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies hold at their 2023 highs. In some cases, some cryptocurrencies reversed all of their gains against the dollar – and some more.

Therefore, it is clear that what happens with the US dollar also moves the cryptocurrency market. This week, despite having just two trading sessions left, the US dollar might move aggressively on two pieces of economic data:

• Core PCE Price Index m/m
• August NFP report

Core PCE Price Index

The PCE data is the Fed’s favorite way of interpreting inflation. It shows the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers but leaves out food and energy prices. The data will be released later today in the North American session.

The market expects it at 0.2% MoM, but the risk is that it will be lower. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, stated at the Jackson Hole this August that he believes inflation has peaked. If that is the case and the PCE data confirms it, the dollar might take a hit.

August NFP report

The second part of the Fed’s mandate deals with job creation. For the Fed to stop hiking the funds rate, it must see a softening labor market.

So far this week, both the JOLTS report and the private employment have disappointed. Therefore, the bias is that the NFP report will also come on the soft side. In such a case, the dollar’s weakness should accelerate.

The post Key US data to move the cryptocurrency market this week appeared first on CoinJournal.