Ripple back under pressure, bears eye major support area

  • Ripple erased all the gains following the July federal court ruling
  • Dynamic resistance held
  • All eyes are now on the major support area seen at $0.3

Crypto investors cheered Ripple’s price reaction in July following news that the XRP token is not a security when sold to the general public. The price spiked from the $0.4 area to close to $1, and finding a single bearish trader following the news was impossible.

But markets often mislead traders.

As it turns out, the SEC (Security and Exchange Commission) wants to appeal the federal court ruling in Ripple’s case. Investors did not wait and sold, sending the XRP/USD rate back to where it was before the July news.

The round trip was completed recently when Ripple fully retraced the move following July’s announcement.

One can build both a bullish and a bearish case for Ripple by looking at the technical picture. But the main thing is that Ripple is back in the range, unable so far to break above or below major resistance and support areas.

Ripple chart by TradingView

The bullish case for Ripple

In 2021, Ripple’s price surged to over $1.8 as investors hurried to get exposure to the cryptocurrency market during the COVID-19 pandemic. But sellers quickly emerged, and a bearish triangle formed.

The triangular consolidation held until 2022. In the first half of that year, Ripple’s price broke lower. It did so by breaking support given by the lower edge of the triangle, and since then, it has not looked back.

Until this July.

Previous support turned out to be dynamic resistance. It is this resistance that kept bulls at bay following the July news.

However, despite the rejection, one can build a bullish case for Ripple. The $0.3 area acted as a major support in 2022, and the market has built a series of higher highs and higher lows ever since. As long as it holds above support, Ripple’s price might recover and attempt to break and hold above dynamic resistance again.

The bearish case for Ripple

On the other hand, the recent selloff alone has scared many traders. Optimism vaned, and with it, capital fled, too. If Ripple’s price drops below $0.4, the momentum then builds for further downside toward the major support area seen at $0.3. A break there, and it is game over for bulls that were so sure that Ripple’s time has come.

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JPMorgan analyst says weakness in Bitcoin ‘appears to be at its end phase’

  • Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou is convinced that worst is behind us in Bitcoin.
  • He agreed that there recently have been positive news in crypto market.
  • Price of a Bitcoin has declined nearly 17% in less than two months.

A JPMorgan analyst is convinced that the worst is behind us as far as the ongoing decline in the price of a Bitcoin is concerned.

Bitcoin is not the only one taking a hit

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou attributes recent weakness in the world’s largest cryptocurrency to a bunch of long positions that were liquidated as positive news, including the pending approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF continued to fade but added:

This unwinding of long positions appears to be at its end phase rather than its beginning. As a result, we see limited downside for crypto markets over the near term.

Note that Bitcoin is not the only risk-on asset that has had a tough few weeks. China-related concerns and higher real yields in the U.S. have been hitting the tech space at large.

Nasdaq Composite is now down about 7.0% versus its recent high.

Why are investors staying on the sidelines?

Panigirtzoglou agrees that there has been positive news in the crypto market including PayPal Holdings introducing its own dollar-pegged stablecoin (read more) and the launch of “Base” by Coinbase Global Inc.

But investors are staying on the sidelines and waiting for regulatory clarity partly because the Securities & Exchange Commission has appealed the recent decision in Ripple’s favour, as per his research note today.

Appeal could result in a trial with outcome not expected until next year, inducing a new round of legal uncertainty for crypto and making them sensitive to any mid-process news.

On Friday, Fed Chair Powell also said at the Jackson Hole symposium that rates may go even higher from here and signalled no near-term intent of cutting rates which doesn’t bode well for the cryptocurrencies either.

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Optimism Foundation proposes a 118M OP grant to Base

  • The Optimism Foundation and Coinbase-backed layer-2 platform Base eye shared governance of OP Chains.
  • Base will receive 118 million OP token spread over six years.

The Optimism Foundation and Base, a Layer 2 on the OP Stack, are looking to cooperate further in the quest to enhance security, scalability and decentralisation in the Optimism Collective – the Superchain.   

For this, the Optimism Foundation has outlined a proposal that could see Coinbase-backed Base receive a grant totaling 118 million OP tokens.

This grant is meant to retroactively reward Base’s contributions thus far to scaling Ethereum and the OP Stack, ensure Base’s long term alignment and commitment to the ecosystem, and critically, give Base a meaningful voice in the system of Optimism Governance, to which they’ve entrusted the future of their chain,” the announcement read.

Optimism’s revenue and governance proposal also details a commitment that the Base team has to make with regard to distributing the greater of either 2.5% of its sequencer revenue or 15% of net on-chain profits, to Optimism Collective. The 118 million OP tokens will be spread over six years and come with a cap of 9% on votable supply.

Base and Optimism to share upgrades

The move to agree on a Base/Optimism Foundation collaboration comes after last month’s “Law of Chains” proposal that seeks to transition Optimism governance from focusing on just the OP Mainnet to all chains on OP Stack. This is what’s dubbed the Superchain.

The Foundation plans to have a governance vote on the transition in place in early 2024. On what happens next, it noted:

Base and OP Mainnet will share upgrades, so the chains’ blockspace remains compatible, homogenous, and eventually interoperable in a Superchain future.  How those upgrades evolve is up to Optimism Governance.”

If the “Law of Chains” is ratified, some of the key steps to be executed will include upgrades across Base, the OP Mainnet, and other chains on OP Stack. The teams will also work on a decentralised Security Council and “Pessimism,” a cybersecurity monitoring tool.

Base launched on August 9 and is seeing growing traction with total value locked (TVL) up 9% in the past week to $183 million. DeFiLlama data shows Optimism currently ranks sixth among top chains with over $715 million in TVL.

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