Schlagwort: crypto markets

• A French Trader “Théo” made nearly $50M betting on Trump using the “neighbour polling” method on Polymarket.
• Théo’s private polls and unconventional data use raise transparency concerns.
• French regulator ANJ is investigating Polymarket’s compliance with gambling laws.

The crypto betting platform Polymarket is facing potential regulatory action in France after an anonymous trader, known as “Théo” or the “Trump Whale,” made headlines by netting nearly $50 million wagering on Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.

Théo’s remarkable success has raised questions about prediction market methodologies, data reliability, and the transparency of such platforms.

How Théo made approx. $50M wagering on the US presidential election

Théo, a former bank trader from France, used four anonymous Polymarket accounts to place more than $30 million in bets on Trump winning the popular vote. His strategy, as disclosed in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, revolved around what he termed the “neighbour polling” method.

Unlike traditional polling that directly asks individuals who they would vote for, this technique asks respondents who they believe their neighbours support. This approach can reveal hidden preferences, especially when voters may be reluctant to disclose their true choices.

Publicly released neighbour polls conducted in September, which Théo cited, showed that support for Vice President Kamala Harris was significantly lower when respondents were asked about their neighbours’ preferences compared to direct questioning.

Théo viewed this as an indication that conventional polling underestimated Trump’s support, leading him to make a high-risk bet when Polymarket odds suggested only a 40% chance of Trump winning the popular vote.

To bolster his confidence, Théo commissioned private surveys with a major pollster, which reportedly yielded “mind-blowing” results favouring Trump. However, these findings were kept private due to a confidentiality agreement, fueling speculation about the accuracy and impact of such data on prediction markets.

Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) investigating Polymarket

The success of Théo’s wager has drawn increased attention to Polymarket’s role in election betting. French authorities, particularly the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), are reportedly scrutinizing the platform’s compliance with local gambling laws.

Although Polymarket operates from the US, it only permits non-US users to participate following a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The ease with which VPNs can bypass geographic restrictions adds to the regulatory challenge.

Experts are divided on the efficacy of neighbour polling. While the method has sometimes outperformed conventional surveys, studies indicate that it can also lead to misleading predictions, especially when the public lacks sufficient context or understanding.

Théo’s story exemplifies how unconventional strategies and private insights can disrupt markets, yet underscores the need for transparency and regulation as the landscape of prediction markets evolves.

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• Avalanche has repurchased 1.97M AVAX tokens from the defunct Luna Foundation Guard.
• The buyback, valued at $53M, strengthens Avalanche’s ecosystem and long-term goals.
• AVAX price has surged 4.0% in the past week, reflecting strong market confidence.

In a significant move to strengthen its ecosystem, the Avalanche Foundation has successfully repurchased 1.97 million AVAX tokens from the now-defunct Luna Foundation Guard (LFG).

This buyback, valued at approximately $53 million based on current market prices, marks the conclusion of a strategic effort to reclaim tokens originally acquired by LFG in 2022 to support the Terra blockchain ecosystem.

The tokens were initially purchased by LFG for $100 million with the aim of stabilizing Terra’s TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin, which was pegged to the US dollar.

Terraform Labs, the parent company of the Terra blockchain, had established LFG as a reserve to protect UST by accumulating both Bitcoin and other altcoins like AVAX.

However, following the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May 2022, triggered by UST losing its dollar peg, the value of LUNA plummeted, and the once-promising strategy unravelled.

In the aftermath of this crisis, the Avalanche Foundation moved to negotiate a deal to buy back the 1.97 million AVAX tokens. By doing so, Avalanche ensured that LFG would not violate its original agreement with the Foundation, particularly regarding the use of the tokens.

The buyback also protects the tokens from potential bankruptcy proceedings, safeguarding them from being liquidated in court.

At the time of the repurchase, the AVAX tokens were valued at $26.84 each, pushing the total worth to $53 million, up from the original purchase price of $45.5 million. This action highlights Avalanche’s commitment to the long-term sustainability of its ecosystem.

Repurchased tokens will support Avalanche ecosystem’s initiatives

The reclaimed tokens will be used to support various initiatives within the Avalanche ecosystem, such as grants, events, and incubators.

The strategic buyback represents a crucial step in maintaining the stability of AVAX and bolstering the foundation’s efforts to drive innovation and growth in the blockchain space.

By completing the buyback, Avalanche not only mitigates risks from the Terra collapse but also reaffirms its position as a leading force in the blockchain industry.

AVAX token on a strong bullish momentum

The token repurchase comes at a time when AVAX is experiencing a surge in value. With a current price of $26.84, AVAX has been steadily gaining momentum, reflecting growing investor confidence and the continued strength of the Avalanche ecosystem.

The token has gained 4.0% over the past week and has seen a remarkable 108.8% increase over the past year.

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• Dogecoin (DOGE) is soaring after Donald Trump’s win, driven by the proposed role of Elon Musk’s government.
• DOGE’s path to $1 depends on sustaining momentum and breaking resistance.
• Vantard (VTARD) offers diversified meme coin investment through its VTARD token.

The cryptocurrency market has erupted in excitement following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election. The win has triggered a wave of optimism, pushing Bitcoin (BTC) to a new all-time high and lifting several other cryptocurrencies, including Dogecoin (DOGE).

With crypto enthusiasts speculating that Dogecoin could reach the $1 mark, a new memecoin project dubbed Vantard (VTARD) has emerged as a noteworthy contender. Through its innovative index fund model, Vantard offers investors a unique opportunity to engage with the promising world of meme coins.

Analysts optimistic that Dogecoin will hit $1 after Donald Trump’s Victory

Dogecoin (DOGE), known for its playful origins and affiliation with Elon Musk, is experiencing renewed momentum. With Trump’s election win sparking market-wide euphoria, DOGE jumped by up to 16% before settling at an 8% gain.

Dogecoin is currently trading at around $0.1916 up from around $0.14. The 14-day RSI, however, indicates an overbought condition at 70.17, suggesting potential near-term price corrections.

This surge is largely attributed to Elon Musk’s involvement with Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and his anticipated role in heading the proposed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—a name that resonates with Dogecoin’s native token. The DOGE commission, reminiscent of the Reagan-era Grace Commission, aims to audit federal government efficiency and spending, with Musk adding his signature flair to the initiative.

Historically, Dogecoin’s value has been heavily tied to Musk’s endorsements, dating back to his public support in 2021. His declaration that DOGE is “the people’s crypto” and active participation in development efforts have consistently impacted its price.

Despite its rollercoaster history, including a peak at $0.73 during the 2021 bull run followed by steep declines, Dogecoin remains a key asset in the meme coin sphere.

The technical analysis presents a mixed outlook: while Dogecoin is positioned above all major EMAs, the overbought RSI hints at a possible retracement. Nevertheless, long-term forecasts appear optimistic, projecting potential price points of $1.34 by 2025.

The current market enthusiasm fueled by Trump’s political climate and Musk’s influence may well support Dogecoin’s path to $1, especially if it sustains upward momentum and surpasses crucial resistance levels.

Vantard offers a new frontier in meme coin investment

While Dogecoin (DOGE) commands attention, the relatively new Vantard project is carving out its place in the crypto world. Vantard presents a compelling opportunity for investors who seek diversified exposure to the high-volatility meme coin market without constantly managing their portfolios.

Branded as a Meme Index Fund, Vantard strategically invests in a curated selection of top-performing meme coins, capitalizing on the cyclical trends observed in the sector.

The ongoing presale of Vantard’s token, VTARD, has already raised more than $808,546.69, highlighting growing investor interest. The current presale stage is priced at $0.00013, with an imminent increase to $0.00014, signalling early momentum.

Vantard’s appeal lies in its model that mimics traditional index funds but applies it to the dynamic meme coin landscape. This approach enables investors to tap into the potential upside of meme coins with minimal effort while benefiting from the fund’s expert selection and allocation strategy.

Vantard is poised to ride the wave of the “memecoin supercycle,” where meme coins periodically surge in popularity and price.

By holding a diversified basket of these assets, Vantard reduces the risk inherent in betting on a single coin while leveraging the market’s overall growth. This strategy may be particularly attractive in the current bullish climate, further fueled by heightened interest in memecoins following Trump’s election and Musk’s potential policy involvement.

As Vantard expands its portfolio, it aims to encompass newer, high-potential meme coins and potentially establish itself as a benchmark for meme-based investments.

For investors looking to gain exposure to meme coins without the legwork of tracking individual tokens, Vantard’s index-like structure offers a promising solution. The project’s fee structure and plans for expansion further underline its commitment to transparency and sustained growth.

Conclusion

Trump’s victory and Elon Musk’s reemerging influence have set the stage for significant developments in the cryptocurrency market, with Dogecoin poised for a potential rally and Vantard offering a novel investment pathway.

Whether Dogecoin will reach $1 remains a hot topic, but with the current landscape marked by high engagement and shifting dynamics, both DOGE and Vantard stand as intriguing opportunities for investors navigating the crypto space.

For those interested in Vantard, they can visit the project’s website for more information.

The post All eyes on Dogecoin and Vantard after Trump’s victory: DOGE eyes $1 appeared first on CoinJournal.

• COW and CETUS tokens spiked after Binance added support for spot trading.
• Gains also came as  Bitcoin led crypto prices higher amid markets bounce on Donald Trump election victory.

The price of Cow Protocol (COW) and Cetus (CETUS) have spiked sharply in the past 24 hours after crypto exchange Binanace made a huge announcement.

Cow Protocol offers a fully permissionless trading and automated market maker. On the other hand, Cetus Protocol is a pioneer decentralized exchange and concentrated liquidity protocol on Sui and Aptos blockchains.

Binance lists COW and CETUS

COW and CETUS were up 76% and 85% respectively in the 24-hour period as the broader crypto market celebrated Donald Trump’s win in the US election.

While this bullish sentiment across the altcoin market helped the two tokens higher, it’s Binance’s announcement that the exchange will list COW and CETUS that likely catapulted prices higher. According to Binance, spot trading for the two coins will go live at 12:00 UTC.

Binance Will List @CoWSwap $COW and @CetusProtocol $CETUS with Seed Tag Appliedhttps://t.co/xbEtrGoxzZ pic.twitter.com/DgOyPT8fBV

— Binance (@binance) November 6, 2024

Market reaction to the news saw both tokens explode, with Cow Protocol price rising to $0.47 and Cetus Protocol to $0.33.

Daily trading volume for CETUS jumped 1,236% to over $181 million. Meanwhile, COW recorded a staggering 3,860% spike in daily volume, and was seeing about $13.7 million at the time of writing.

Binance has applied the seed tag to the COW and CETUS tokens, indicating that the cryptocurrencies are likely to witness wild volatility. This is notable given the market conditions and the potential for some traders to seek profits.

However, with Trump’s win, experts say crypto may yet go parabolic.

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