Analyst: ‘main market-native risk to crypto is contagion’

While Bitcoin (BTC) remains perched above $20,000 amid the crypto winter, digital asset market analyst Marcus Sotiriou says the main risk for the market is the contagion linked to the crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) and crypto lender Celsius Network.

For 3AC, today’s notice of default from Voyager Digital all but confirms the demise of the hedge fund, whose problems go back to the collapse of cryptocurrency Terra Luna in May.

Multiple companies exposed to 3AC

Crypto brokerage Voyager’s exposure to 3AC is via a loan of over $675 million – in $350 million of USDC and 15,250 BTC. Three Arrows is unable to repay the loan and hence Voyager’s attempt to explore legal means of getting the funds repaid.

And it’s not just Voyager, the rot affects multiple crypto firms that have had exposure to the crypto hedge fund, whose not-so-good investment practices could see it sink with others. Sotiriou says the contagion could be deeper. This is what the crypto market currently faces.

As every major lender has been severely impacted by the demise of Three Arrows Capital, including BlockFi, Celsius, Voyager and Genesis, it is clear that the main market-native risk to crypto is contagion,” he said in emailed comments.

Together, these firms could see billions of dollars worth of investments go up in flames.

Notably, though, FTX founder and CEO, billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried is emerging as a ‘lender of last resort’ with his multiple bailout credit facilities. SBF noted last week that the key reason to help some of these firms is to “prevent contagion.” But he notes some may have to be left to die.

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Bitcoin, Ethereum price levels to watch

The crypto market is coming off one of its worst months as June draws towards a close, with the crypto market capitalization once again moving closer to the $1 trillion mark thanks to fresh resilience among buyers.

Bitcoin and Ether, the top two cryptocurrencies by market cap, currently trade around $20,850 and $1,190 respectively. The leading crypto assets have an intraday high of $21,469 and $1,245 and both have managed to stay above the key support levels established over the week.

But where do the two cryptocurrencies go from here? What levels should investors watch on the downside?

Analyst says the 200-week moving average is key

According to Bloomberg analyst Joanna Ossinger, the key price levels are at the 200-week moving average. For Bitcoin, that is currently around the $22,000 level, while for Ether, it’s near the $1,100 mark.

However, the “round levels of $20,000 for Bitcoin and $1,000 for Ether are still a big deal,” she said during Monday’s Bloomberg Markets and Finance show

These levels provide the critical support zones for BTC and ETH respectively in case of fresh selling. If BTC/USD and ETH/USD hold above these zones, then buyers could be looking at new momentum above their 200-week moving averages.

On the downside, crypto analyst Rekt Capital says BTC could drop to prices near $16,000.

For Ether, il Capo says a drop to $700-$800 is possible.

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Tether co-founder on crypto risks: investors have a ‘fair warning’

The cryptocurrency market is still navigating a severe crypto winter that has wiped off billions of dollars in market value in the past few weeks, with most digital currencies trading at price levels in the 80%-90% loss bracket.

In some cases – and LUNA’s collapse is a standout example – investors have hit massive losses. Worries persist with more projects likely to fall away amid broader contagion.

But Tether co-founder and CEO of BlockV Reeve Collins says the crypto market has offered more than enough in terms of warnings about risks involved in crypto investing. 

He also believes there has been enough from the broader investment space, including regulators.

It is tragic when people lose their money. However, our industry has done all it can to warn people that they could lose their money. But not only has our industry done that, all the other industries – all the financial experts and all the advice out there,” he told CNBC in an interview.

According to him, people have been warned against crypto, including via tags such as “Bitcoin is a scam” and that blockchain does not work.

Investors have “fair warning” of crypto risks

The BlockV CEO says that people have indeed been warned of the potential to lose their money if they invested in crypto. 

He says all the ‘naysaying’ out there provides “fair warning” to anyone looking to put their money into crypto that the market is risky and extremely volatile.

Collins also says investors going for the “fringe coins” and applications due to the attractive high yield should know that it comes with risk.

Also, investors need to know that the new projects that offer these ludicrous yields could either work or fail – as has been witnessed over time.

But overall, Collins is bullish about the crypto industry, noting that the current problems are just growing pains. The market will mature and offer great financial products to the ecosystem.

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Highlights June 27: Terra Classic USD is pumping, Dogecoin adds 11%

The crypto market as a whole is mixed with most top 100 coins relatively flat at the time of writing. 

Top cryptos

The crypto market was mostly flat this morning, with the majority of top 10 cryptos registering small losses. Bitcoin was down less than 1% at time of writing, trading above $21,000. 

Ethereum was around 1% lower%, XRP registered minor losses, and Cardano remained flat. Closing out the top 10 was Dogecoin, which was up around 11%.

Dogecoin’s gains are likely due to Elon Musk’s unwavering support. Despite accusations that Dogecoin was a pyramid scheme and the lawsuit against him, Musk has stated repeatedly he would always support it. 

Cryptos outside the top 10 were mixed. Tron added 8% to its value, perhaps finally getting back on track. Uniswap was up around 6%. 

Top movers

Most coins outside the top 20 were mixed. Notable standouts include Ethereum Classic, up 6%, and Stacks, up 20% ahead of an upcoming NFT launch. Terra Classic USD, the former UST, added 195% to its value and is currently trading for $0.03.  

The losers 

Quite a few coins in the top 100 lost 2-3% of their value. Those which lost more were NEAR, Storj, The Graph, and THORChain, each down 6% and Axie Infinity, Elrond, GALA, AAVE, and 1inch Network, each down 5%.

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Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao on crypto skeptics: ‘no need to ignore them’

Bitcoin has been called just about anything and virtually “nothing” by skeptics over the years.

If you did a little checking, you would note that perhaps the most bile towards the revolutionary technology maybe coming from what Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao calls “experienced and respected crypto skeptics.”

So how does the crypto market “address” this group of influential personalities and experts?

In his latest blog published on Friday, Zhao says “walk a mile in their shoes”, get to understand where their perspective has formed. Importantly, why take everything to heart when this is all normal and expected behavior.

Being protective and defensive doesn’t always come from a maligned place. Good-faith actors want to protect their users and community. Central banks, regulators, and financiers, in most cases, want to avoid risk and provide security. So when people ask me how I deal with trusted, respected professionals admonishing crypto, I try to walk a mile in their shoes,” he wrote.

Don’t take ‘everything to heart’, CZ says

You have heard it all, you are engaging some of them – and clearly, they seem not to understand what crypto is. Instead of ‘ignoring’ their criticism, try to understand their views from the perspective of “their experience and position.”

This is how you end up extracting value from whatever criticism they advance.   And once you do that?

There’s no need to ignore them or take everything to heart once you’ve dug a little bit deeper,” Zhao advises.

There is a lot one can take from the Binance chief’s take on crypto critics and how to go about getting to know that what they say comes from a certain point of view.

In a nutshell, blockchain technology is disruptive technology – and like any other new technology that actually disrupts – it’s more likely than not to be met with some skepticism from those who might feel threatened by it.

You can read all of CZ’s argument on the Binance blog.

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