Perpetual futures changed how retail traders perceived risk in 2025

  • Perpetual futures allow positions to stay open indefinitely, letting risk build over time.
  • Losses increasingly stem from prolonged exposure, not sudden price moves.
  • Contract design now plays a bigger role in risk than traditional entry and exit timing.

In 2025, many retail traders realized that futures risk no longer followed a familiar lifecycle.

Positions were no longer defined by clear start and end points, and losses were increasingly shaped by how long exposure was carried rather than by individual market moves.

As non-expiring futures became the default contract type, traders began encountering risk that developed through persistence instead of resolution.

This shift introduced a structural contradiction. Traditional futures contracts expire, forcing positions to be closed or rolled at predetermined intervals.

That process limits how long exposure can accumulate without intervention.

Perpetual futures remove this constraint. By design, they allow positions to remain open indefinitely, provided margin requirements are met.

While this simplifies participation, it also allows risk to build continuously, often without clear signals on price charts.

Educational coverage from Leverage.Trading focused on the structural mechanics of perpetual futures, detailing how the removal of contract expiry allows exposure to persist and why risk can deteriorate over time even when price movement remains subdued.

Risk that accumulates through duration, not volatility

Similar structural patterns have been observed in institutional research on derivatives markets.

For example, the BIS has reported that rising notional exposure and gross market values in derivatives markets reflect how risk can accumulate as positions persist over time, even without dramatic price movements.

As traders adjusted to this structure, several defining properties of non-expiring futures became more widely understood.

These properties did not describe market outcomes, but the conditions under which exposure is allowed to persist:

  • Futures contracts without expiry do not force risk to reset
  • Exposure remains active until manually reduced or automatically closed
  • Structural costs and pressures continue to accrue over time
  • Position vulnerability increases through duration, not only volatility

Understanding these properties changed how futures risk was assessed.

Instead of evaluating trades solely on entry quality or short-term price expectations, traders increasingly examined whether a position could withstand ongoing structural pressure over extended periods. 

From contract expiry to continuous exposure

This distinction mirrors the contrast between traditional futures markets, such as those operated by the CME Group, and perpetual contract models that dominate crypto derivatives, where contract duration is theoretically unlimited.

The educational explanations focused on how perpetual futures remain aligned with spot prices through continuous adjustment mechanisms, how funding and exposure interact across time, and why prolonged duration can erode position stability even in relatively calm markets.

By considering contract design alongside exposure and time, traders were better equipped to judge whether a futures position was structurally sound before entering it. 

Regulatory bodies such as the ESMA have also warned that prolonged leveraged exposure can magnify losses even when price fluctuations appear modest, reinforcing the importance of understanding contract mechanics rather than relying solely on price signals.

Why futures risk became a time problem

As futures markets expanded and participation broadened, isolated price outcomes became an unreliable way to interpret risk.

Education that clarified how non-expiring contracts carry exposure forward became necessary for understanding why positions often deteriorate gradually rather than failing abruptly.

This emphasis on contract structure reflects a broader shift toward risk-first explanations, a role increasingly associated with Leverage.Trading’s coverage of futures and leveraged markets.

Recognizing that futures risk now accumulates through continuity rather than expiration marked a meaningful change in retail trading behavior.

Explanations that clarify how contract design, exposure, and time interact help traders understand not just how futures positions are opened, but how and why they degrade without a defined endpoint.

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Bitcoin ETFs bleed $410M amid $2.5B options expiry: is BTC facing deeper crash?

  • Bitcoin saw spot ETF outflows of over $410 million as prices struggled.
  • Over $2.5 billion in Bitcoin options expired on Friday.
  • Analysts say “worst of downturn” likely over but market remains bearish.

Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of over $410 million on February 12, as investors withdrew capital from the exchange-traded funds amid growing fears of a broader crypto market downturn.

And on Friday morning, Feb. 13, BTC price fluctuated near $66,800 as the market recorded a massive $2.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry.

Crypto analysts have shared their thoughts on what this could mean for the Bitcoin price in the short term.

Bitcoin ETF outflows and $2.5 billion options expiry

Data showed that on US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of over $410 million yesterday, with none of the 12 spot ETFs notching net inflows.

BlackRock’s IBIT led with nearly $158 million, Fidelity’s FBTC had $104 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC had over $59 million in exits.

This marked the second consecutive day of redemptions, following $276 million on February 11.

Institutional investors are pulling back amid Bitcoin’s struggles around the $67,500-$65,450 range.

The fresh ETF outflows coincide with a pivotal weekly options expiry at 08:00 UTC on Feb. 13.

Approximately 38,000 Bitcoin contracts worth $2.5 billion in notional value have expired, primarily on Deribit, with a put/call ratio of 0.72 and maximum pain near $74,000.

Ethereum also saw 215,000 ETH options worth $410 million expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.82 and a maximum pain point at $2,100.

These maximum pain points are at values well above spot BTC and ETH levels, and likely the driver of downward pressure as market makers look to hedge delta exposure on out-of-the-money calls.

Bitcoin price prediction

The ETF outflows and broader market weakness hinder bulls, and sentiment is skewed bearish, analysts say.

“Today saw the expiration of options accounting for 9% of total open interest, totaling nearly $2.9 billion. This week, implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum has declined, with BTC’s main-term IV at 50% and ETH’s at 70%. While the downward price trend has moderated, market confidence remains weak,” analysts at Greeks.live noted via X.

Despite this outlook, the market may have “the most violent leg of the downturn” behind it. If sentiment improves, prices could pick up an upside trajectory.

In this case, a relief rally to above the critical $70,000 mark is likely.

However, ETF bleeding and macroeconomic headwinds could greatly cap upside momentum.

On Thursday, Standard Chartered forecast Bitcoin price could retest $50k before rising to $100k by the end of 2026. The bank cites ETF outflows, macro pressures and broader risk asset sentiment as negative catalysts.

Notably, BTC tested support at $60k this month, and the elevated implied volatility, coupled with ETF exits, signals aggressive downside protection.

If outflows continue amid other highlighted downside triggers, the $50k level could be the next target.

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Bitcoin Cash holds near $500 despite broader crypto market slump: check 2026 outlook

  • Bitcoin Cash price held near $500 as bulls battled intraday sell-off pressure.
  • The altcoin could retest key resistance levels amid Bitcoin’s gains.
  • However, Standard Chartered forecasts BTC could drop to $50k, and BCH will likely mirror this.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) price is demonstrating notable resilience, with bulls holding near the $500 mark as the broader cryptocurrency market downturn hits sentiment.

On February 12, 2026, the BCH price hovered between $496 and $523, down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours but still within range of this crucial level.

Bitcoin Cash price holds $500 amid BTC struggle

The resilience comes as the broader crypto market faces pressure, including from macroeconomic factors.

Sell-off across the sector has seen Bitcoin struggle to reclaim the $70,000 mark, and on Thursday, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick highlighted the bank’s forecast for BTC in 2026.

Specifically, Standard Chartered has now slashed its 2026 target to $100,000 per Bitcoin, citing potential further pain before prices recover.

Amid downward pressure, the bank sees bears pushing BTC to support around $50,000.

Kendrick said in a note to clients that Ethereum will also likely drop to $1,400 before rebounding to highs of $4,000 in 2026.

While BCH remains near $500 and has held above the $450 support, this outlook for BTC and ETH suggests the coin could be at risk of further decline.

Negative sentiment will cascade to other Bitcoin-related tokens.

BCH price technical outlook and forecast for 2026

Bitcoin Cash price fell to around $468 on October 10, 2025, and to $454 on Feb. 5, 2026.

The two dates highlight the last two major sell-off events across the crypto market. If prices fall past this support base, a retest of June 2025 lows at $385 could follow.

Before this, Bitcoin Cash had rallied from $268 to $443 between April 9 and May 23.

From a technical perspective, BCH’s weekly chart indicates that the price currently hovers above a key horizontal support level.

The uptick between March and September 2025, and between November 2025 and early January 2026, also put prices above the middle line of a broader parallel channel.

The resistance level of this pattern lies near $700, while support is around $264.

Bitcoin Cash BCH Price Chart
Bitcoin price chart by TradingView

Currently, BCH’s price hovers at the 50-day moving average of $597, which has acted as support since Oct. 10, 2025.

If the price drops below the 50-day SMA, bulls could be in trouble. The weekly RSI sits in the neutral 40-50 zone. However, it is likely to suggest potential bearish acceleration before a rebound.

Meanwhile, the MACD indicator shows strengthening bearish momentum after a bearish crossover in mid-January.

A weekly close above $510 could allow buyers a relief rally towards the channel resistance. However, if prices slip under $425, a revisit of $300-$260 could be next.

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Stacks price retests $0.28: can STX go higher?

  • Stacks price surged by 5% to test resistance near $0.28.
  • Gains follow Bitcoin’s uptick to $67,500.
  • STX could still dip to recent lows if the Bitcoin price falls to new lows.

Stacks’ STX token edged higher on the day as Bitcoin held above the $67,500 level following a roughly 2% intraday move.

Despite the modest gain, the Bitcoin layer-2 network’s native token continues to trade in volatile conditions, reflecting uncertainty across the broader cryptocurrency market.

A sustained pickup in momentum could lift STX toward levels last seen in May 2025.

However, ongoing market turbulence and expectations of further downside risk for Bitcoin suggest Stacks may remain under pressure.

Analysts point to $0.24 as a key support level that bulls will need to defend to prevent a deeper pullback.

Stacks price today

STX posted modest daily gains on February 12, 2026, trading around $0.27 at the time of writing with a 5% uptick.

But buyers are hovering at these levels after hitting resistance around $.028, a level reached after STX recovered from Feb.5, 2026, lows of $0.22.

Despite weekly losses having moderated to 2%, Stacks remains more than 32% down in the monthly time frame.

Meanwhile, gains on the day have also come amid reduced buyer interest, with daily trading volume down 6% to $13.2 million.

Notably, prices remain within the range that offers support at $0.24, with bulls revisiting the level on three occasions year-to-date.

Stacks price prediction

Stacks is among the top Bitcoin DeFi protocols looking to leverage a layer-2 network to enable smart contracts and yield opportunities directly on Bitcoin’s security.

The project has gained traction as the digital asset investment space broadens.

One of its landmark moves is the recent integration with Fireblocks, which could potentially expose over 2,400 institutional clients to STX for native Bitcoin DeFi participation.

“Bitcoiners want to earn yield without sacrificing security. They want their yield to be denominated in Bitcoin and ideally, with as few additional trust assumptions as possible,” the firms stated in their announcement.

Clients will be able to tap into Bitcoin-denominated rewards, BTC-yielding vaults, and BTC-backed loans.

This institutional gateway could significantly boost STX adoption, especially if Bitcoin prices spike.

Bulls could eye the $0.56-$0.60 range or higher, with the altcoin having reached highs of $1.05 in May 2025.

The technical picture supports this short-term outlook and targets.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 34, but signals bullish divergence.

Charts also show the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator pointing to a bullish crossover.

Stacks Price Chart
Stacks price chart by TradingView

If Bitcoin faces intensified selling pressure, Stacks’ upside potential could suffer.

In this case, STX may find support in the $0.23-$0.20 area.

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