Kategorie: Crypto News

• Q1 2025 audit shows excess reserves down to $5.6 billion from $7 billion.
• Tether’s reserves are managed by Cantor Fitzgerald, raising scrutiny over potential conflicts.
• Competitor World Liberty Financial, backed by the Trump family, also plans to launch a stablecoin.

Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer by market capitalisation, is preparing to launch a US-based stablecoin by the end of 2025 or early 2026.

The move marks a shift in the company’s strategy as it aims to align itself more closely with American regulatory frameworks.

While its international USDT token is already dominant in global crypto trading, the proposed dollar-pegged stablecoin will be designed to comply with domestic regulations in the United States.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino revealed the development during an interview at the Token2049 conference in Dubai.

He confirmed the company was awaiting the outcome of pending US legislation before finalising a launch timeline.

The push coincides with Tether’s broader attempt to reposition itself in the US as a compliant and cooperative player, following past controversies over its reserve disclosures and regulatory fines.

Lobbying efforts intensify in Washington

Tether’s domestic pivot comes as Ardoino increases his presence in Washington, DC.

His recent efforts include private meetings with lawmakers and a Capitol Hill lunch with Republican Senator Bill Hagerty, according to reports.

The company is now actively lobbying in support of proposed legislation like the GOP-backed GENIUS Act, which includes provisions that could benefit foreign issuers such as Tether if they agree to cooperate with US law enforcement.

Ardoino has also underscored Tether’s relationship with US agencies, stating that no other financial entity, traditional or crypto, matches its collaboration level with law enforcement.

While the company was once criticised for allegedly enabling criminal transactions, its new strategy focuses on transparency and legal compliance as a means of gaining regulatory approval.

Tether’s headquarters remain in El Salvador, but the company’s efforts to develop a domestically compliant stablecoin reflect its evolving approach to regulatory alignment.

It is positioning the new token as separate from its global USDT product, tailored to meet specific legal and financial rules within the US.

Cantor Fitzgerald link draws scrutiny

As part of its reserve management strategy, Tether holds billions in US Treasuries managed by Cantor Fitzgerald, a major Wall Street firm.

The firm’s Q1 2025 attestation report confirmed holdings of nearly $120 billion in Treasuries, though its excess reserves declined to $5.6 billion from over $7 billion in December 2024.

The Cantor connection has attracted attention due to the firm being led by the sons of US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Ardoino addressed concerns around conflicts of interest, stating that proper “walls” are in place and that he does not communicate directly with the secretary.

He also emphasised Tether’s healthy capital position, noting $7 billion in excess equity and suggesting that traditional institutions should emulate its model.

In 2021, Tether paid $18.5 million to settle charges by the New York attorney general over misrepresentations about its reserves.

Since then, it has begun publishing routine attestation reports.

Ardoino insisted the company is now better capitalised than many traditional financial firms and prepared to withstand significant market shocks.

Domestic stablecoin market heats up

Tether’s expansion into the US stablecoin market comes amid increased political attention.

The Trump-backed World Liberty Financial recently announced plans to launch its dollar-backed token, adding to the competition for regulatory legitimacy and market share.

While stablecoins remain a hot topic in Washington, the GENIUS Act and other proposals could set the stage for clearer compliance pathways for issuers.

Tether’s ability to influence policy could prove crucial as it seeks to enter a space where scrutiny is likely to intensify in the run-up to the 2026 elections.

Tether’s move to issue a domestically regulated stablecoin is not only a technical milestone but also a political statement.

As regulatory conversations gain momentum in Washington, its future may depend less on market dominance and more on legal alignment with US financial policy.

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• NAV benchmarks for BTC and ETH ETFs underpin the forecast.
• SEC’s final deadline for XRP ETF approval is 12 October.
• Polymarket data shows a 79% chance of approval by year-end.

Anticipation over an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) is building in the crypto sector as analysts weigh up potential inflows, market impacts, and regulatory dynamics.

While rumours and delays have shaped much of the recent conversation, data-driven forecasts from key institutions now offer a clearer picture.

Standard Chartered Bank projects that a US-listed XRP spot ETF could attract between $4.4 billion and $8.3 billion in inflows within its first year, based on net asset value benchmarks seen in existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

This projection, while optimistic, comes with caution from others in the market.

Standard Chartered bases its projection on ETF benchmarks

Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, said NAV-to-market-cap ratios from already approved US spot ETFs were used to model potential XRP ETF inflows.

Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs currently show NAVs of around 6% and 3% of their respective market caps.

Applying these ratios to XRP’s market capitalisation results in a $4.4 billion to $8.3 billion range.

Kendrick highlighted data from Bitwise ETPs in Europe, where XRP, Solana, and Litecoin trade alongside BTC and ETH.

He noted that altcoins account for a greater share of ETP NAV relative to their market caps, although this may reflect the lower number of products available for altcoins compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

XRP price forecast revised amid ETF optimism

Based on anticipated ETF inflows, Standard Chartered forecasts a significant XRP price increase.

The bank expects XRP to rise to $5.50 by the end of 2025 and reach $8.00 by 2026.

The target for 2029 is set at $12.25.

This forecast assumes XRP ETF approval and a general continuation of growth in digital asset investment vehicles.

For comparison, Kendrick noted that Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in Q2 2025, $200,000 by the end of the year, and $500,000 by 2028.

XRP is expected to keep pace, albeit with lower overall adoption and inflation differences.

XRP’s current inflation rate stands at 6%, compared to Bitcoin’s 0.8%.

Bitfinex analysts issue cautious counterpoint

Despite bullish projections, not all market observers are convinced that XRP ETFs would generate the same excitement as Bitcoin products.

Analysts from crypto exchange Bitfinex argue that investor interest may be spread thin across a growing list of altcoin ETFs.

As such, XRP might not see inflows comparable to Bitcoin, even if approved.

Their caution reflects broader concerns about ETF market saturation and regulatory clarity.

While Bitcoin enjoys legal clarity as a commodity, XRP has faced classification issues and legal disputes that may influence investor confidence.

Timeline for XRP ETF approval remains uncertain

Several financial firms, including Grayscale, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares have filed for XRP ETFs with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Bitwise’s application was officially acknowledged on 18 February, setting a maximum deadline of 240 days, or 12 October, for a final decision.

This mirrors the timeline applied to Bitcoin spot ETFs earlier in 2024.

However, other altcoin ETF applications such as those for Solana and Litecoin could impact when an XRP decision is made.

According to Kendrick, Litecoin may be prioritised given its similarity to Bitcoin and its historical treatment as a commodity.

Polymarket data shows that as of now, the probability of XRP ETF approval by 31 July is 39%, rising to 79% by the end of the year.

Analysts including Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas suggest Litecoin could be the first among altcoins to secure approval, followed by HBAR and eventually XRP and Solana, which face unresolved security classification challenges.

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