Bitcoin could fall to $30,000 with this ‘perfect storm’ of factors, analyst says

  • The Russia-Ukraine crisis, higher rates, and new crypto regulations in the US could be the “perfect storm” that sends Bitcoin to $30,000, said the analyst.
  • Bitcoin tested lows of $36,500 and is finding it hard to stay above $38k amid investor uncertainty.

Bitcoin is down 3% in the past 24 hours, with price movement on Tuesday including an intraday low of $36,500.

The bellwether crypto is down more than 11% this past week and fell heavily on Monday amid a confluence of macro factors analysts say could combine for a ‘perfect storm’ of negative price drivers.

As of writing, the cryptocurrency has bounced above $37k but remains weak. According to one analyst, the current market conditions might see BTC prices fall below the major support level at $30,000.

This could be the „perfect storm“

On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognizing the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent. He then followed it up with an order sending troops into the Ukrainian regions, prompting sanctions from the US, and the European Union. The UN Security Council also met and condemned Putin’s move.

Bitcoin price reacted alongside stocks to hit multi-week low, with further rot likely as US markets opened after Monday’s President Day holiday.

The fresh downside pressure comes amid continuing jitters among investors as the US Federal Reserve looks to implement the first of many rate hikes.

Meanwhile, the crypto market is anticipating a regulatory shift in the US with an impending executive order from the White House.

The Ukraine crisis, compounded by rising interest rates and crypto regulations in the US, may create a perfect storm driving the bitcoin to test the $30,000 level,“ CloudTree Ventures’ Winston Ma told the Street.

According to him, Bitcoin continues to act “more like high growth tech assets,” and the risk-off sentiment may greatly influence crypto markets.

Crypto analyst KALEO says there is the possibility of a bullish bounce to $40,000 and above. However, with weakness still abounding, the next major support level could be found at $32,000.

BTC found support at the base of the Feb 3rd lows where we saw the bullish leg up. Macro structure still looks weak, and I wouldn’t find any confidence in this bounce until a break above $40K. Still expecting this to slowly bleed out until a breakdown to ~$32K,” he said.

Bitcoin was trading around $37,785 at the time of writing.

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REVEALED: Research claims a former crypto CEO hacked The DAO in 2016

  • Laura Shin says that investigations point to former TenX CEO as the man behind the hack on The DAO.
  • The alleged hacker has reportedly denied the accusation.

Crypto journalist Laura Shin says that extended research and investigation around the infamous hack on The DAO in 2016 was able to unearth the identity of the hacker as one Toby Hoenisch, an apparent well-known figure within the crypto space.

The senior Forbes contributor revealed she worked with blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis to trace the DAO funds’ movement.

Who hacked The DAO? My exclusive investigation, built on the reporting for my new book, The Cryptopians: Idealism, Greed, Lies, and the Making of the First Big Cryptocurrency Craze, appears to point to Toby Hoenisch, a 36-year-old programmer who grew up in Austria and was living in Singapore at the time of the hack,” Shin wrote in an article published Tuesday, February 22.

Shin adds that Hoenisch has until the articles’ publication a well-known figure whose crypto profile includes being the co-founder and CEO of TenX, an $80 million initial coin offering (ICO) project that failed to live up to expectations.

The alleged hacker denies DAO hack

According to Shin’s article, Hoenisch has denied being the hacker behind the 2016 attack that saw The DAO lose 3.64 million ETH tokens.

Hoenisch is said to have replied to an email detailing his role by saying that the “statement and conclusion” indicated were “factually inaccurate.”

But investigations by Shin and blockchain analytics platform Chainalysis, tracking a 50 BTC transaction to a Wasabi Wallet was able to unmask the hacker as Hoenisch.

Per the research, Chainalysis was able to use never-before-revealed monitoring technology to “de-mix” the bitcoins and trace them to four exchanges.

Blockchain research helps identify hacked funds

From one of the exchanges, the alleged hacker swapped the BTC for the privacy coin Grin. These tokens were then sent to a Grin node that analysis showed as grin.toby.ai. The IP address of this particular node was also connected to other nodes such as ln.toby.ai and lnd.ln.toby.ai, with another linked to TenX.

For anyone who was into crypto in June 2017, this name may ring a bell. That month, as the ICO craze was reaching its initial peak, there was an $80 million ICO named TenX. The CEO and cofounder used the handle @tobyai on AngelList, Betalist, GitHub, Keybase, LinkedIn, Medium, Pinterest, Reddit, StackOverflow, and Twitter. His name was Toby Hoenisch.

Apart from these “links”, Shin says Hoenisch had been an active individual around The DAO, severally emailing the platform’s developers Slock.it.

The story has just broken after Shin’s book was published and it is now likely a lot more could be revealed, including from those Hoenisch emailed.

The DAO remains one of the largest thefts in the crypto space, even though the hacker never managed to cash out all the stolen funds. At the time in 2016, The DAO’s stolen funds amounted to about $60 million.

Today, that would be nearly $10 billion following Ether (ETH) prices rallying from lows of $20 then.

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DeFi Watchlist: Top rated upcoming DeFi projects worth your consideration

DeFi projects are becoming central in the growth of the blockchain space over the last few years. There are also brand new DeFi projects that are coming out each day, each offering a promise of great financial autonomy from traditional finance. Here is why DeFi is heating up:

  • There is massive investor confidence around DeFi right now.

  • Billions of dollars are already locked in leading DeFi projects.

  • DeFi projects provide a lot of utility hence a lot of value for investors

If you have been thinking about getting some exposure to DeFi, we have some exciting projects here below that you can get into if you want.

Compound (COMP)

Compound (COMP) is a decentralised finance protocol that provides access to a series of staking opportunities for crypto holders. The purpose of this protocol is to make it easier for users to borrow and lend crypto assets on a peer-to-peer basis. 

Data Source: Tradingview 

The Compound protocol and its native token COMP are all based on the Ethereum network. This is one of the hottest DeFi projects on the chain, and at the time of writing, COMP was trading at $108 with a market cap of around $709 million.

Liquity (LQTY)

Liquity (LQTY) strives to offer interest-free borrowing on the Ethereum blockchain as well. As of now, the platform has seen immense growth with nearly $1.2 billion in total value locked or TVL. The token also appears to have significant upside potential. At press time, it had a market cap of around $35 million. Also, its native token LQTY was trading at $2.15.

Cream Finance (CREAM)

Cream Finance (CREAM) is also a micro-cap DeFi project that offers massive growth potential. It has a market cap of around $22 million, and its native token CREAM is right now selling for around $33.88. Cream Finance is basically a decentralised DeFi lending protocol that allows users to lend and borrow crypto at ease.

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Decentraland (MANA) bears push price action below crucial support

The February crypto boom was kinder to most metaverse tokens, and Decentraland (MANA) was not any different. After the initial slump in January, the coin had rebounded and started to show signs of promise. But things have taken a turn in recent days:

  • MANA at one point tested the highs of $4 during the February run.

  • The coin has since fallen sharply ever since, trading at $2.66 at the moment.

  • MANA has also fallen past a crucial support zone of $2.7.

Data Source: Tradingview 

Decentraland (MANA) – where does it move next

There was a lot of bullish commentary on Decentraland (MANA) in recent days. In fact, despite showing some weakness, there was real hope that the metaverse token would in fact bounce back. Some analysts even saw the coin retesting $4, although it had fallen below $3. 

But there was one caveat in all this. The bullish thesis would only hold if MANA was able to keep the price action above the crucial support zone of $2.7. This did not happen. At the time of writing this post, MANA was trading at around $2.66. 

So, what happens next? Well, it is important to note that the coin has not slid far away from $2.7 and could still bounce back. The key will be to watch the week’s close. If it doesn’t pull up, then we may see the coin retreat towards its next support level of $2.5.

Why could Decentraland (MANA) be a good asset now?

With all the talk about the metaverse, we haven’t really seen a lot of huge projects come out in recent months. There are of course many upcoming metaverse projects. 

But even with that, the fact still remains that Decentraland (MANA) is by far one of the largest coins in this category right now. There is real potential for significant future growth in the near and long term.

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Bitcoin slips below $40000 as the bloodbath in the crypto market shows no signs of abating

At the start of the month in February, we saw significant bullish momentum in Bitcoin (BTC). After hitting lows of nearly $32000 in January, BTC rebounded sharply in February and was even at one point hoping to reclaim $50,000. But things have fallen by the wayside in recent days. Here are some highlights.

  • Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $40,000 in a broader bloodbath in the market.

  • The bearish trend has somewhat continued with BTC now trading at $38,000.

  • The decline has largely been triggered by tensions in Eastern Europe.

Data Source: Tradingview 

Bitcoin (BTC) – How far can bears go?

There have been several stark warnings about the future prospects of Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto market in general. With expected Fed policy tightening this year, increased inflation, and the threat of war in Europe, there seems to be a lot of market volatility right now. 

Also, the CEO of Huobi, one of the largest exchanges in the world, has come out and said that we may not see a Bitcoin bull run until 2024. 

$40,000 was seen by many analysts as key support for BTC. Besides, the coin had experienced a period of sustained bullish gains. It was only a matter of time before a pullback came. It is likely that BTC will fall further. In fact, there are fears that the large-cap coin could hit $30,000 before it rises again.

Is it the right time to buy Bitcoin (BTC)

There has been a lot of pressure on Bitcoin in recent months. Increased inflation, the threat of regulation, and now simmering tensions in Europe are all working together to keep the coin down. 

Although Bitcoin has been cheaper than this before, it’s still a perfect entry point for long-term investors. It is suggested that you wait a bit longer. BTC could still fall further, giving investors the chance to buy cheaply.

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