Stacks (STX) – Is a whale aggressively loading up?

  • Stacks has been growing in adoption for its ability to make Bitcoin as programmable as Ethereum.

  • Stacks current pump is not fundamentals driven and is more consistent with whale activity.

  • Volumes are dropping, but Stack is still holding at key intra-day support. 

Stacks (STX) is a crypto project that unlocks the power of Bitcoin way beyond its use cases as a currency and a store of value. Through stacks, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap and the most secure can be used to create smart contracts. This is a big deal because Bitcoin’s security allows it to be used in creating highly sensitive Dapps, especially for DeFi.

The implications of making Bitcoin programmable are pretty high for stacks, too. One of them is that it makes Stacks a highly sought-after cryptocurrency by investors who want to earn staking rewards in Bitcoin. By staking Stacks, investors earn an APY as high as 9.8%, and the rewards are paid in Bitcoin. 

However, Stacks usually moves in tandem with the broader market, and its current price is an anomaly, considering that the cryptocurrency market is bearish now.

Price action consistent with whale activity 

Stacks has in the last 24-hours shot up by over 28%. This follows a sudden increase in volumes, now up by over 4800%. Such a sudden increase in buying volumes indicates that a whale is buying up Stacks in huge amounts, triggering the current price rally. 

Stacks forms a descending triangle pattern

After a massive pump that saw Stacks hit a high of $1.9, Stacks has formed a descending triangle pattern, with strong support at $1.346. This is an indicator that trading volumes are dropping after the initial pump that was consistent with whale activity. 

Source: TradingView

If Stack’s buying volumes remain high, and it bounces off the $1.346 support, it could retest the $1.9 resistance in the short term. If stacks bulls can break the $1.9 intra-day high, now resistance, prices above $2.5 could be within focus. 

However, if this was just a random pump and Stacks drops below the $1.346 support, prices below $1.07 could come within focus in the short term. 

Summary

Stacks has pumped in the last 24-hours in price action consistent with whale activity. However, these volumes are declining, and STX is now trading at key support.

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Kadena rallies after Binance listing – Can the pump last?

Kadena Logo on a mobile phone being held in some ones hand

  • Kadena pumps after Binance listing. 

  • Profit-taking has triggered a minor correction, but overall momentum is bullish.

  • Kadena’s core metrics as a platform blockchain are behind its strength. 

Kadena (KDA) is one of the best performers today and is currently up by over 14%. This follows news that the KDA token was now listed on Binance, the world’s largest exchange by volumes,

The Binance listing is a big deal, as it opens up Kadena to an even wider range of investors. This means higher volumes and higher demand once the money flows back into the crypto market. 

However, it is not just the Binance-driven pump that makes Kadena a worthwhile investment. Kadena is one of the lowest fees platform blockchains and can scale well. Kadena is also one of the safest platform blockchains in the market because, like Bitcoin, it runs on a Proof-of-Work algorithm. This makes it perfect for companies that want to build sophisticated financial solutions that require a high level of security. 

Interestingly, while Proof-of-Work has been getting a lot of bad rap lately due to energy consumption, Kadena does not have this problem. That’s because, in the Kadena Proof-of-Work algorithm, the cost does not increase with use. This helps it combine the safety of PoW with the efficiency that other blockchains get from Proof-of-Stake. 

This is one of the big factors contributing to Kadena’s rise in adoption and price over the past year. 

Kadena Profit-taking triggers correction.

 Source: TradingView

Hours before the Binance listing, Kadena’s price pumped hard. However, a few hours later, the price entered a correction as traders took profits in anticipation of a post-news dump. 

Bulls seem to be regaining control, though, an indicator that investors are still buying into Kadena in anticipation of even more gains. With Bitcoin now pushing back above $40k resistance, Kadena could easily retest the week’s high of $8.30. 

Summary 

Kadena pumped after the Binance listing. While the price has since dropped due to profit-taking, it seems to be stabilizing again. This indicates that the underlying demand is strong despite the price taking.

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Terra (LUNA) price points to potentially more gains short term

  • Terra (LUNA) rallies as demand for UST is driven by Anchor Protocol surges.

  • LUNA’s relationship with UST means higher demand for UST drives LUNA prices up.

  • LUNA is currently trading in an ascending triangle pattern, an indicator of a potential breakout.

Terra (LUNA) continues to outperform the rest of the market by a huge margin. LUNA is the only major cryptocurrency that has retested its all-time highs since the crypto market turned bearish in November 2021.

The trigger behind this rally has to do with the relationship between LUNA and the stable coins that run on the Terra ecosystem, such as TerraUSD (UST). As the demand for UST grows, LUNA is burned, with the goal being to keep UST pegged 1:1 to the dollar. Going by the economic laws of demand and supply, the more LUNA is burned, the higher the price goes.

Recently there has been a huge demand for UST, as investors look to lend it on Anchor Protocol, a platform with an APY of up to 20%. This also means that the burn rate for LUNA has shot up, and by extension, the price has also gone up to the levels where it is now.

As long as Anchor Protocol keeps paying an above-average APY, then the chances are that LUNA could easily go on to make new highs, possibly above $200 in the short term.

LUNA trading in an ascending triangle

Source: TradingView

After the rally that saw it make new highs a few days ago, Terra is trading in an ascending triangle. This is an indicator of a potential breakout, which could see LUNA test prices it has never tested before.

Summary

LUNA is the only one of the major cryptocurrencies that are rallying. Its price action points to a potential continuation of the rally that started a few days ago and could see LUNA make new highs in the short term.

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Hedge fund shorts Tether

According to a Bloomberg report released Friday, hedge fund Fir Tree Capital Management, who have $4 billion in assets under management, made a large short bet against Tether (USDT), the stablecoin which is pegged to the US dollar.

One-to-one backing

With a market capitalisation of $80 billion, Tether is the world’s third largest cryptocurrency, behind only Bitcoin and Ethereum. The company has long been under fire surrounding accusations that $80 billion worth of reserves is not held to back the cryptocurrency one -to-one, an issue the company has repeatedly tried to clear up, but one which will not go away.

Indeed, I interviewed Tether CTO Paolo Ardoino last week following the announcement by the Swiss city of Lugano that Tether would be accepted as legal tender, and asked him whether the city had concerns over whether the cryptocurrency was fully backed:

CoinJournal: Did Lugano seek assurances on whether Tether is 100% backed, or were they content with what Tether has already released publicly on the matter?

Paolo Ardoino: Tether and the city of Lugano sat down and openly discussed the misconceptions about the company. Tether has publicly stated that it has ongoing conversations with regulators and law enforcement and has made valiant efforts in complying with all requests for transparency.

Fir Tree Capital Management remain among the sceptics, however, with Bloomberg’s report claiming that the company expects to receive a payoff within 12 months. The short is motivated mainly by Tether’s ties to Chinese real estate developers, with revelations of Evergrande Group’s finances last year causing turmoil. While originally spooking crypto markets, Tether came out to confirm that Evergrande Group commercial paper did not feature among the $24 billion in high-yield commercial paper that the firm owns. Evidently, this is a claim which Fir Tree does not believe.

Structure of the Short

While details about the structure of the short bet have not been made public, we can speculate how it may be constructed. Given the fact Tether is a stablecoin with no price volatility (i.e . it always trades at $1), the short is an unconventional one. Where typically a short bet presents unlimited downside (as the shorted stock or financial instrument theoretically has no limit to the upside), this is different, given Tether will not rise in price under any circumstances.

In truth, it is more likely to resemble the purchase of a credit default swap (CDS) on a debt obligation, the likes of which entered mainstream conscience amid the Great Financial Crash last decade (and were the subject of Hollywood blockbuster The Big Short). Fir Tree are likely paying a fixed spread to bet against Tether, and will receive a large payoff if Tether defaults (alternatively, if a default becomes more likely in the eyes of the market, the spread would widen on the contract and Fir Tree could cash out at a profit).

Asymmetric Payoff

Therefore, the hedge fund’s bet will have an asymmetric payoff schedule to the upside. Of course, if Tether default and they do receive their payoff, the cryptocurrency markets will likely implode. The centrality of Tether to the ecosystem at large cannot be overstated – the stablecoin clears over $50 billion of daily trade volume (Apple stock volume, for comparison, averages $98 million in daily volume over the last three months).

Tether 24H volume 2019-2021, via Statista

Tether sceptics are nothing new, but this amounts to quite a high-profile move by Fir Tree, even if it is a low-risk, high-reward structure. The fund supposedly commenced shorting Tether last July, while Bloomberg also claims Fir Tree are considering setting up a separate fund for the sole purpose of shorting Tether, should there be enough client interest.

For the sake of crypto investors around the globe, the hope is that Tether are, in fact, what they claim to be – fully backed. If not, Christian Bale’s next role could be as a Fir Tree executive.

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Russians liquidate billions in crypto to save their fortunes

Russians are flooding cryptocurrency firms in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with requests to liquidate billions of dollars in a desperate attempt to save their fortunes, company executives and financial sources told Reuters.

Some of them want to buy real estate in the UAE, while others want to convert it into fiat and hide it elsewhere, insiders reported.

Russians are concerned Switzerland will freeze their assets

One crypto firm received quite a number of requests from Swiss brokers, asking to liquidate billions in Bitcoin because their clients are concerned Switzerland might freeze the funds. According to a representative of the firm, all of the requests were for $2 billion or more. They added:

We’ve had like five or six in the past two weeks. None of them have come off yet – they’ve sort of fallen over at the last minute, which is not rare – but we’ve never had this much interest. We have one guy – I don’t know who he is, but he came through a broker – and they’re like, ‚we want to sell 125,000 bitcoin‘. And I’m like, ‚what? That’s $6 billion guys‘. And they’re like, ‚yeah, we’re going to send it to a company in Australia‚.

UAE is seen as a safe haven

The UAE has refused to side with either the West or Russia, leading Russians to believe their money is safe there. According to real estate brokers, a lot of Russians and some Belarusians have been coming to Dubai and bringing their funds with them, including in crypto.

Sources in the UAE confirmed that Russians are purchasing real estate in Dubai. They are using crypto to get their resources into the UAE and out of other regions.

Crypto exchanges blocking Russian accounts

Albeit details being few and far between, cryptocurrency exchanges have said they are blocking the accounts of sanctioned Russians. Binance and Coinbase are taking measures to ensure crypto is not used to circumvent sanctions and are cooperating with law enforcement on this issue.

However, crypto still offers a high degree of anonymity. Germany, Estonia, and other European countries have asked for stricter oversight to eliminate any loopholes that could allow Russians to evade sanctions.

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