Ethereum price prediction for January 2026: key levels and institutional moves to watch

  • BitMine’s ETH accumulation and staking tighten supply, boosting price potential.
  • The immediate resistance at $3,000 and the key support near $2,700 guide the short-term forecast.
  • Upgrades like Fusaka and strong fundamentals may drive ETH toward $5,000.

Ethereum has continued to show resilience in the face of broader market fluctuations, as traders and investors position themselves ahead of critical macroeconomic updates.

Over the past 24 hours, the Ethereum price rose 1.66% to $2,975, outperforming the broader crypto market’s modest 0.65% gain.

Most notably, ETH’s recent rebound from $2,920 has highlighted both short-term technical strength and growing interest from institutional players, signalling that January 2026 could set the stage for important developments in the market.

Institutional accumulation shapes the market

Institutional activity remains a central factor for Ethereum price movements, with BitMine emerging as a key driver.

BitMine recently added more than 44,000 ETH to its treasury, bringing its total holdings to roughly 4.11 million ETH, or about 3.41% of the circulating supply.

This large-scale accumulation reduces liquid supply in the market, creating upward pressure on the Ethereum price and reinforcing the long-term bullish thesis for the token.

BitMine has also begun staking a portion of its holdings, approximately 408,000 ETH, as it prepares to launch its Made in America Validator Network (MAVAN) in early 2026.

By locking up ETH in staking, BitMine is not only generating yield but also further tightening supply, which could influence price dynamics if demand remains steady.

This institutional approach mirrors strategies seen in other crypto assets, where consistent accumulation and staking serve as mechanisms to anchor the asset and attract long-term investors.

Ethereum price forecast: technical and macro considerations

From a technical standpoint, the Ethereum price has been testing the $3,000 resistance level, with the MACD recently flipping bullish and the RSI at 44.23, indicating recovering momentum but room for further consolidation.

Analysts note that a breakout above $3,052 could trigger algorithmic buying, while a failure to hold above $2,850 may lead to a retracement toward stronger support levels near $2,700.

Short-term volatility is further influenced by the anticipation of Federal Reserve policy updates, with traders adjusting positions ahead of potential macroeconomic shifts.

The technical setup is further complemented by macro catalysts, including the Fed’s policy minutes, which could affect USD strength and, consequently, the appeal of risk assets like ETH.

Meanwhile, ETF flows into spot Ethereum have been inconsistent, reflecting broader uncertainty in institutional appetite.

A positive response to upcoming network upgrades, including the Fusaka upgrade, may drive renewed capital inflows and provide additional support for the Ethereum price in 2026.

Long-term growth potential

Beyond immediate technical and macro drivers, Ethereum’s long-term growth prospects remain strong.

Other analysts have highlighted the potential for Ethereum to reach $5,000 by 2026, citing the network’s robust ecosystem, proof-of-stake infrastructure, and ongoing upgrades that expand utility and attract institutional participation.

The Fusaka upgrade, which will increase data storage capacity on Ethereum blocks, is expected to open new use cases, including tokenisation of real-world assets, further enhancing the network’s fundamentals.

Historically, Ethereum has demonstrated rapid growth in active wallets, transaction volume, and total value locked, positioning ETH as a leading platform in decentralised finance (DeFi).

These metrics, combined with strategic accumulation and staking by major holders, provide a strong backdrop for future price appreciation.

While short-term technical challenges persist, the overall trajectory suggests that the Ethereum price could benefit from both improved fundamentals and ongoing institutional confidence as 2026 progresses.

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How a governance failure led to the Unleash Protocol hack

  • An unauthorised contract upgrade enabled direct withdrawals from the protocol.
  • Funds were bridged to Ethereum and laundered through Tornado Cash.
  • Assets affected included WIP, USDC, WETH, stIP, and vIP.

A governance failure at Unleash Protocol has resulted in a major security breach, with attackers draining around $3.9 million in user funds.

The incident was first identified by blockchain security firm PeckShieldAlert and later confirmed by the Unleash team.

While the exploit did not affect the wider Story ecosystem, it has renewed attention on how governance mechanisms can become a critical point of failure in decentralised finance.

Unleash Protocol is a decentralised platform built on Story Protocol.

The project said the incident was limited to its own contracts and administrative controls, with no signs of compromise across Story Protocol’s validators or core infrastructure.

Even so, the event shows how vulnerabilities at the application level can still lead to significant losses.

Governance controls bypassed

On-chain analysis indicates the attacker targeted Unleash Protocol’s multi-signature governance system.

By exploiting weaknesses in how admin permissions were enforced, the attacker gained unauthorised access normally reserved for approved signers.

This access was then used to push through a contract upgrade that had not been sanctioned by the core team.

The unauthorised upgrade altered how the protocol handled withdrawals. With standard governance checks effectively bypassed, the attacker was able to move funds directly out of the protocol.

According to Unleash, these actions occurred outside its established governance framework and were not detected until after the funds had already been removed.

Laundering through bridges and mixers

After extracting the assets, the attacker bridged the funds to Ethereum. From there, the assets were broken into multiple transactions, a strategy often used to make tracking more difficult.

Blockchain data shows that 1,337.1 ETH was later deposited into Tornado Cash. The deposits were made in varying sizes, ranging from small transfers to batches of up to 100 ETH.

This pattern suggests a deliberate attempt to obscure transaction trails and reduce the effectiveness of on-chain monitoring tools.

Tokens impacted

In an official incident notice, Unleash Protocol confirmed that several assets were affected during the exploit.

These included WIP, USDC, WETH, stIP, and vIP.

The team reiterated that all affected withdrawals took place through the unauthorised contract upgrade rather than through normal user interactions.

The clarification that Story Protocol itself was not compromised is significant.

It indicates that the breach stemmed from Unleash’s internal governance design, not from flaws in the underlying blockchain or its validator set.

Emergency measures taken

Following confirmation of the breach, Unleash Protocol paused all platform operations to prevent further losses.

The team said it is working with independent security experts and forensic investigators to determine how the governance safeguards were bypassed and whether additional vulnerabilities remain.

Users have been advised to avoid interacting with Unleash Protocol contracts until further updates are issued.

The project has stated that future communications will be shared only through official channels as the investigation continues.

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Lighter launches LIT token: check out all the details here

  • Half of the token supply is allocated to the ecosystem, with an immediate airdrop converting 2025 points into LIT.
  • LIT is used for staking, access to trading services, and payment for data verification on the platform.
  • Lighter ranks third by recent perpetuals volume, behind Hyperliquid and Aster.

A new token launch is putting fresh focus on how decentralised trading platforms are designing their economic models.

Perpetuals-focused Layer 2 exchange Lighter has rolled out its native cryptocurrency, LIT, positioning it as a core part of its infrastructure rather than a simple governance add-on.

Built on Ethereum, the platform is targeting active derivatives traders while also appealing to builders and long-term backers interested in transparent, onchain systems that mirror aspects of traditional markets.

The launch comes at a time when onchain perpetuals trading is consolidating around a small group of high-volume venues.

Lighter is attempting to differentiate itself by tying token utility directly to trading performance, data verification, and revenue visibility, while operating through a US-registered corporate structure.

Token distribution and airdrop design

The total LIT supply is split evenly between the ecosystem and insiders.

Half of all tokens are allocated to users, partners, and future incentives, while the remaining half goes to the team and investors.

Early participants are being rewarded through an immediate airdrop that converts 12.5 million points earned during 2025 into LIT tokens.

That initial distribution accounts for 25% of the project’s fully diluted value, which represents the maximum supply if all tokens are issued.

The remaining ecosystem allocation is reserved for future rewards, partnerships, and expansion initiatives.

Team and investor tokens are subject to a one-year lockup, followed by linear vesting over three years, according to details shared by the project on X.

Utility beyond governance

Lighter is framing LIT as an operational token embedded in how its exchange functions.

Rather than focusing solely on voting rights or passive rewards, the token underpins access to different levels of trading execution and data verification services on the platform.

Users who want higher-tier services are required to stake increasing amounts of LIT.

These requirements are designed to scale as the network decentralises further, shifting control from a single operator to a broader set of participants.

Fees for market data and price verification are also paid in LIT, with staking acting as a mechanism to ensure data accuracy and reduce risk across the trading system.

Onchain revenue and buyback flexibility

Another feature highlighted by the project is full onchain visibility of revenue generated by its trading platform and future products.

All income is intended to be publicly trackable on the blockchain, allowing users to independently verify performance.

Management has indicated that this revenue could be used either to support ecosystem growth or to buy back LIT tokens from the market.

Any buyback activity would reduce circulating supply, but there is no fixed schedule.

Decisions are expected to depend on market conditions and longer-term strategic considerations, rather than automated rules.

Market position in perpetuals trading

Lighter’s activity places it among the more active decentralised perpetuals venues.

Over the past seven days, Lighter-based perpetuals have averaged $2.7 billion in trading volume, ranking third behind Hyperliquid and Aster, based on data from a Dune-powered tracker.

Hyperliquid’s HYPE token currently carries a market valuation of $6.26 billion, making it one of the largest digital assets globally.

Against that backdrop, Lighter is betting that tightly coupling token utility with execution quality, data integrity, and transparent revenues can help it carve out a durable role in the evolving onchain derivatives landscape.

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BTC at $143K, ETH above $4000: Citi issues bullish price forecasts as crypto market continues to struggle

  • Citi forecasts Bitcoin at $143K and Ethereum at $4,304 in 12 months.
  • Regulatory clarity and adoption drive institutional interest in crypto.
  • Short-term risks, including bearish patterns, options expiry, and ETF outflows, still linger.

Citigroup has delivered one of the most upbeat outlooks from a major Wall Street institution on digital assets, forecasting strong upside for both Bitcoin and Ethereum over the next year.

The bank’s projections come at a time when crypto markets are navigating sharp short-term volatility while longer-term adoption trends continue to strengthen.

A bullish baseline with room to run

In a recent research note, Citigroup set a 12-month price target of $143,000 for Bitcoin, representing an upside of roughly 62% from levels near $88,000 at the time of the forecast.

The bank also gave Ethereum a favourable outlook, with a target price of $4,304, implying potential gains of about 46% from around $2,950.

The bank said its forecasts reflect improving market conditions after recent drawdowns, arguing that crypto prices are now closer to measures of value tied to actual user activity.

Citi framed its base case as a recovery scenario rather than an aggressive speculative call, noting that valuations have adjusted following the pullback from October highs.

Beyond its baseline projections, Citi also outlined a wide range of possible outcomes.

In a bullish scenario, the bank sees Bitcoin climbing as high as $189,000 and Ethereum reaching $5,132.

Under a bearish case, however, Bitcoin could slide to $78,000, while Ethereum may fall toward $1,270, underscoring the asset class’s persistent volatility.

Regulation shifts from risk to catalyst

Citi identified regulatory developments as the central driver behind its constructive stance.

The bank pointed to a noticeable shift by US authorities toward clearer, more tailored frameworks for digital assets, replacing years of regulatory uncertainty with defined rules.

Several enforcement actions and lawsuits against major crypto platforms have been dismissed, a change Citi believes could encourage institutional investors to re-engage with the sector.

The bank also highlighted President Donald Trump’s pro-digital-asset rhetoric, which has coincided with broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies within traditional finance.

According to Citi, these policy shifts have the potential to unlock renewed capital inflows, particularly from institutions that previously stayed on the sidelines.

The firm expects regulatory clarity to support adoption across spot markets, ETFs, and tokenised financial products over the coming year.

Volatility clouds the near-term forecasts

Despite the optimistic outlook, Citi acknowledged that recent market turbulence remains a significant headwind.

Bitcoin fell to multi-month lows in November as investors reduced exposure to risk assets amid concerns over elevated technology stock valuations.

Market sentiment has weakened further in December after Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy and the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, cut its 2025 earnings forecast.

Strategy cited Bitcoin’s prolonged weakness, drawing heightened attention given its outsized exposure to the cryptocurrency.

Short-term technical signals also suggest caution, seeing that Bitcoin has formed a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart and remains below key moving averages and the Supertrend indicator.

Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin price analysis | Source: TradingView

Analysts warn that the price could dip toward $87,341, or even $85,188.

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Ethereum developers reveal the next upgrade, Hegota

  • The Hegota update will follow Glamsterdam in the Ethereum upgrade cycle.
  • Hegota will merge execution and consensus upgrades to boost efficiency and scalability.
  • Verkle Trees and state improvements aim to make Ethereum lighter for node operators.

Ethereum developers have unveiled the name of the network’s next major upgrade, offering the community an early look at what lies ahead for the blockchain in 2026.

Just weeks after the Fusaka update, developers confirmed that the post-Glamsterdam upgrade will be known as Hegota, continuing Ethereum’s steady path of technical refinement and long-term scalability planning.

The announcement, shared through developer discussions and highlighted by Wu Blockchain, places Hegota as the flagship upgrade slated for later in 2026.

It follows the network’s well-established twice-yearly upgrade cadence and signals Ethereum’s intent to keep improving core infrastructure rather than chasing short-term changes.

A name that reflects Ethereum’s core layers

The name Hegota is not symbolic by chance. It merges two internal upgrade concepts: Bogota and Heze.

Bogota represents the execution layer, where transactions are processed and smart contracts run.

Heze, on the other hand, refers to the consensus layer, which secures the network and ensures agreement across nodes.

By combining these two layers into a single upgrade identity, developers are emphasising coordination across Ethereum’s most critical components.

This approach reflects a growing focus on holistic improvements, rather than isolated changes that affect only one part of the system.

Hegota will come after the Glamsterdam upgrade, which is expected to roll out earlier in 2026.

Together, these updates form part of Ethereum’s long-term roadmap to support increased usage, more complex applications, and a broader base of node operators.

What developers are aiming to improve

While final specifications for Hegota are still under development, early discussions point to several clear priorities.

One major focus is state management, which governs how Ethereum tracks balances, smart contracts, and historical data over time.

As more users and applications interact with Ethereum, the amount of data that nodes must handle increases.

Another key area is execution-layer optimisation. Developers aim to make transactions and smart contracts faster and more efficient, which could translate into smoother user experiences and better performance for decentralised applications.

Verkle Trees are also expected to play a role in Hegota.

This technology is designed to reduce how much data nodes need to store, making it easier for individuals and smaller operators to run full nodes.

A lighter network strengthens decentralisation by lowering technical and hardware barriers.

Building on recent upgrades

Hegota builds on ideas introduced in earlier upgrades, including the Fusaka upgrade.

Ahead of Fusaka’s release, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin explained that the upgrade would leverage peer-to-peer Data Availability Sampling, known as PeerDAS, to manage growing data demands.

Some of the technologies introduced through Fusaka are still considered novel.

Developers have acknowledged that future upgrades, including Hegota, may refine or extend these ideas as real-world usage reveals areas for improvement.

This iterative approach has become a defining feature of Ethereum’s development philosophy.

Rather than attempting sweeping changes all at once, the network evolves through measured upgrades that prioritise stability and long-term health.

Market reaction

The announcement of Hegota comes as Ethereum continues to navigate a volatile market environment.

At the time of reporting, ETH was trading around $2,959, reflecting a modest daily decline.

Market analysts note that Ethereum needs to remain above $2,894 for any hopes of regaining $3,000.

While price movements remain uncertain, the reveal of Hegota reinforces Ethereum’s focus beyond short-term market fluctuations.

For developers and long-term holders alike, the upgrade signals continued investment in scalability, efficiency, and ease of operation.

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