Bitcoin ETFs in Japan: why the FSA’s next move could reshape retail investing

  • Nomura Holdings and SBI Holdings are among the financial groups expected to create Japan’s first crypto ETFs.
  • Global crypto market capitalisation has tripled in three years to around $3 trillion.
  • US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have grown to roughly $120 billion in total net assets.

Japan could be heading towards its first exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in cryptocurrencies, with listings possible as early as 2028, Nikkei reports.

If the plan moves forward, it could give everyday investors an easier route into bitcoin and other digital tokens, without the added complexity of buying and storing crypto directly.

The development comes at a time when large global institutions are already adding crypto ETFs to their portfolios, while regulators in major markets have started treating digital assets as a more established part of modern investing.

Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) now appears set to test how far crypto exposure can go inside traditional market products, while tightening investor safeguards to match the risks involved.

Crypto ETFs could enter Japan’s regulated market

The FSA plans to add cryptocurrencies to the list of specified assets that ETFs can invest in, according to Nikkei.

This would be a key regulatory step because it would allow fund managers to create products that track crypto prices and trade them through an exchange, much like equity or commodity ETFs.

Stronger investor protection measures are also expected to be proposed alongside the change.

That is likely to be central to how Japan positions crypto ETFs, given the market’s reputation for sharp price swings and the history of losses faced by retail traders during major downturns.

If the rule change is implemented, it would bring crypto closer to Japan’s mainstream investment structure, making it available through products that are more familiar to everyday investors and operate within established oversight.

Nomura and SBI may lead the first wave

Several large financial players are already seen as potential early movers.

Nikkei named Nomura Holdings and SBI Holdings among the groups poised to create Japan’s first crypto ETFs, signalling growing interest from firms that already play a major role in Japan’s financial system.

However, any ETFs built on this framework would still need approval to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

That means Japan’s top exchange would decide whether these funds can trade publicly, opening the door for wider retail participation through ordinary brokerage accounts.

For fund issuers, ETFs could also provide a more scalable way to meet growing demand for crypto exposure, while keeping investors inside more regulated channels than direct crypto trading platforms.

Why ETFs could lower the barrier for retail investors

Crypto has become a significant alternative asset class, but ordinary investors still face practical hurdles when buying it directly.

Bitcoin and other digital assets are traded and stored in crypto wallets protected by private keys, which can be difficult for less experienced investors to manage safely.

This is where ETFs can change the experience.

Instead of learning how wallets work or taking responsibility for storage, investors can buy and sell ETF units through a stock exchange, similar to how they trade shares.

That ease of access is one reason crypto ETFs have become a popular gateway product in other markets.

Regulators elsewhere have already taken this route.

The US and Hong Kong approved their first spot cryptocurrency ETFs in 2024, setting a benchmark that Japan could eventually follow as it builds its own framework.

Institutional adoption is growing, despite volatility

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can be volatile, but the sector has continued to expand.

Global crypto market capitalisation has tripled over the past three years to around $3 trillion.

Institutional investors have also played a bigger role in turning crypto into a more portfolio-friendly asset class.

Pension funds, endowment funds for major universities such as Harvard, and government-affiliated investors have started including bitcoin ETFs in their holdings, adding weight to the idea that crypto exposure is no longer limited to high-risk retail speculation.

The US market offers an example of the scale involved once regulated products become widely available.

The total net assets of US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs now amount to roughly $120 billion.

Some in Japan’s asset management industry estimate that crypto ETFs in the country could eventually reach 1 trillion yen ($6.4 billion).

If Japan moves ahead with listings, that projection suggests a meaningful level of demand could emerge from domestic investors looking for exposure through exchange-traded funds rather than direct ownership.

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Hedera (HBAR) price drops toward $0.10 despite McLaren F1 partnership

  • Hedera (HBAR) has intensified its downward trajectory.
  • The token slipped towards the $0.10 mark amid persistent selling pressure and broader cryptocurrency market weakness.
  • This decline comes despite the partnership with the McLaren F1 Team.

Hedera’s price fell alongside other cryptocurrencies on Friday, reaching intraday lows near $0.10.

After seeing a sharp decline on  January 19, HBAR rebounded slightly to around $0.115.

However, sell-off pressure across the risk assets market has pushed bulls into the woods to leave the brief upside as a mask of a likely deeper rot.

It’s an outlook mirrored across the altcoin ecosystem as Bitcoin struggles below $90,000.

Due to profit-taking amid macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, BTC has touched lows of $87,700 and currently hovers around $89,230.

HBAR dips despite McLaren partnership

Struggling altcoins, including HBAR, risk dragging lower. Hedera seems to have failed to capture upside momentum despite the news of a major partnership with McLaren.

The Hedera team announced a multi-year partnership with McLaren Racing on Thursday, revealing that the crypto company is now an Official Partner of the McLaren F1 Team.

Several crypto companies, including Coinbase, Crypto.com and Bybit have previously inked major sports sponsorship deals. Hedera is eyeing expansion via this latest move.

“Working with one of the world’s most recognized sports brands is a big step for the Hedera ecosystem. It gives us a chance to show what Web3 can look like when it’s built on a network people can trust, and when it’s tied to experiences fans actually want,” said Charles Adkins, CEO of HBAR, Inc.

HBAR technical outlook

HBAR’s chart reveals a pronounced bearish structure, with the price well below key moving averages.

The altcoin has been in a prolonged downtrend since it touched highs of $0.35 in January last year.

Technical indicators point to further downside risk, as HBAR breached the $0.12 support earlier this month and now hovers near $0.10, with oscillators like RSI trending lower. Hedera’s token is below all major averages.

Hedera Price Chart
Hedera price chart by TradingView

If buyers fail to reclaim $0.11, losses could accelerate toward October’s lows around $0.0976.  

Hedera’s market capitalization stands at approximately $4.65 billion, reflecting a 65% drop from July 2025 peaks, exacerbated by declining total value locked at $61.5 million and a 16% stablecoin supply reduction over the past week.

HBAR futures traders have ramped up short positions, anticipating continued pressure amid absent ETF inflows.

Analysts note that while a bounce could bring the $0.16 mark into view, current metrics favor consolidation or deeper correction unless Bitcoin stabilizes.

Currently, BTC is facing pressure as investors pile into gold.

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Tether Gold (XAUt) surges as gold approaches $5,000 mark

  • Tether Gold (XAUt) outperforms crypto as investors rotate into gold-backed safety.
  • Whale accumulation and new liquidity channels reinforce bullish momentum.
  • Key levels to watch are the support at $4,800 and the resistance at $5,000.

Tether Gold (XAUt) is drawing intense market attention as its price surges alongside a historic rally in physical gold.

The token, which is backed 1:1 by allocated gold stored in Swiss vaults, has benefited directly from growing global demand for safe-haven assets.

As geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, rise and uncertainty weighs on risk assets, investors are increasingly turning to gold and gold-linked digital instruments.

This shift has pushed XAUt firmly into the spotlight as one of the strongest-performing real-world asset tokens in the crypto market.

Tether Gold (XAUt) outperforms a weakening crypto market

XAUt is up 2.3% over the past 24 hours, clearly outperforming a broader crypto market that has remained flat to slightly negative.

This daily move extends an already strong trend, with gains of roughly 7.3% over the last seven days and nearly 10% over the past month.

At the time of writing, Tether Gold (XAUt) is trading near $4,950, just shy of its recent all-time high around $4,960.

The token’s market capitalisation stands at approximately $2.57 billion, supported by a circulating supply of just over 520,000 tokens.

Trading activity has also surged, with more than $220 million in 24-hour volume highlighting growing liquidity and participation.

These figures confirm that XAUt’s rally is not thin or speculative, but backed by meaningful capital flows.

Gold’s safe-haven rally fuels XAUt demand

The primary driver behind XAUt’s surge is the powerful rally in physical gold prices.

Over the past year, gold has climbed nearly 70%, with prices now pushing toward the psychologically critical $5,000 per ounce level.

spot gold prices
Spot gold price chart | Source: TradingView

This move has been fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions, renewed tariff concerns, and growing fears of macroeconomic instability.

Because Tether Gold (XAUt) is directly pegged to the price of physical gold, any sustained upside in gold creates immediate upward pressure on the token.

The redemption and arbitrage mechanisms behind XAUt help keep its price closely aligned with spot gold markets.

As analysts and industry leaders increasingly project gold prices approaching or testing $5,000, sentiment around gold-backed digital assets has strengthened.

This macro-driven demand gives XAUt a structural advantage over many crypto assets that rely primarily on speculative momentum.

Whale accumulation signals defensive positioning

On-chain data suggests that large investors are actively accumulating XAUt as part of a defensive strategy.

Recent reports indicate that several linked wallets purchased more than 3,100 XAUt, worth roughly $13.7 million, at an average price near $4,422.

Another whale reportedly spent over $2 million to acquire more than 430 XAUt just days ago.

These purchases point to a broader rotation from volatile crypto assets into tokenised real-world assets.

Such accumulation adds concentrated buy-side pressure and often precedes sustained price strength.

It also reinforces the narrative that XAUt is increasingly being used as an on-chain hedge rather than a short-term trade.

Liquidity and technical momentum strengthen the trend

XAUt’s recent integration on the Mantle network via Bybit has further improved accessibility and reduced transaction costs.

Lower friction and deeper liquidity make it easier for both retail and institutional participants to gain exposure.

From a technical perspective, momentum remains decisively bullish.

Tether Gold (XAUt) price chart
Tether Gold (XAUt) price analysis | Source: TradingView

The token is trading well above its key moving averages, with the 7-day and 30-day SMAs acting as strong dynamic support.

However, the 7-day RSI near 95 indicates overbought conditions, suggesting that short-term pullbacks are possible.

Even so, overbought readings during strong uptrends often reflect persistent demand rather than imminent reversals.

Tether Gold price forecast

Looking ahead, traders should closely monitor several key price levels.

Immediate resistance sits near the all-time high zone between $4,950 and $5,000, which aligns with the psychological milestone in spot gold.

A clean breakout and sustained hold above $5,000 could open the door to further upside, especially if gold continues its macro-driven rally.

On the downside, initial support lies near $4,800, a level closely tied to recent consolidation and gold’s breakout zone.

Below that, stronger support may emerge around the $4,700 to $4,720 area, near the short-term moving averages.

As long as gold holds above critical psychological levels and whale accumulation persists, XAUt’s broader trend remains firmly bullish.

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Dogecoin price forecast: No respite for bulls as DOGE drops to $0.12

  • Dogecoin shows weakness as price tests $0.12.
  • Bears could target lows of $0.10 if memecoins continue selling off.
  • The macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds give bears an upper hand.

Dogecoin continues to exhibit signs of vulnerability amid broader market pressures.

The token’s price hovered lower and hit lows near the critical support level of $0.12.

The intraday decline of 2% aligns with broader losses across the altcoin market.

But with memecoins showing greater weakness, analysts are warning that an extended dip risks deeper pain for DOGE.

Struggles for Pepe, Shiba Inu and other top memecoins are testing investor resilience.

Dogecoin price today

Dogecoin’s price has dipped from above $0.14 to $0.12 in recent sessions.

The drop to a daily low of $0.12 comes amid a 10% slide and 39% crash over the past week and three months, respectively.

Dogecoin now risks slipping under a key psychological barrier.

The heightened selling volume doesn’t help the bulls’ cause.

Dogecoin price outlook amid broader market downturn

Analysts have recently said broader market sentiment reflects fading retail participation.

Heightened concern over macroeconomic conditions and rising geopolitical tensions has pushed Bitcoin sharply lower, with prices falling below $90,000 earlier this week.

The resulting risk-off mood and liquidation pressure have also weighed on memecoins, contributing to a roughly 10% drop in Dogecoin over the past seven days.

Technical indicators continue to point to a weak near-term outlook.

On the four-hour chart, the Alligator indicator remains neutral to bearish, with the green line positioned below the red and blue lines, signalling limited bullish momentum.

Key resistance is seen at $0.1279, while immediate support near $0.1242 is at risk of breaking.

A sustained move lower could open the door to further tests toward $0.10 or below if selling pressure persists.

Dogecoin’s 50-day moving average stands at $0.1356, well above current price levels, which analysts say underscores the short-term downtrend that has been in place since late 2025.

Dogecoin Price
Dogecoin price chart by TradingView

At the moment, DOGE is navigating a descending channel pattern formed since October.

If price fails to hold $0.12, it could further strengthen the bearish structure, with historical patterns like lower highs reinforcing seller dominance.

The asset’s struggle against resistance at $0.14, where prior rallies have faltered, also outlines this negative trend.

Both the RSI and MACD indicators point to short-term selling.

Despite this, a falling wedge structure signals a breakout with potential targets above $0.20. The main bullish goal is to reclaim $0.50.

Potential support for Dogecoin could come from the launch of the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF, an exchange-traded fund endorsed by the Dogecoin Foundation.

Analysts say broader adoption, as investors seek new exposure through a physically backed DOGE product, could provide a tailwind for bullish sentiment.

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Binance launches USD1 rewards programme with WLFI token airdrops

  • Binance launched a USD1 rewards campaign, distributing $40m in WLFI tokens through weekly airdrops.
  • WLFI payouts are based on users’ net USD1 balances, with higher rewards for USD1 used as collateral.
  • USD1’s market cap has surpassed $3 billion, while WLFI activity has increased across DeFi and payroll uses.

Binance has rolled out a new rewards campaign for users holding USD1, offering weekly WLFI token airdrops with a total of $40 million in WLFI earmarked for distribution.

The exchange said eligible accounts that maintain a USD1 balance between Jan. 23 and Feb. 20 will receive rewards throughout the programme.

The initiative ties WLFI payouts directly to net USD1 balances on Binance, using a snapshot-based system to calculate qualifying amounts.

Binance is positioning the campaign as an incentive for users who hold or deploy USD1 across supported products, while both USD1 and WLFI continue to see growing activity across the wider crypto ecosystem.

How Binance will distribute WLFI rewards

Binance said WLFI rewards will be paid once a week, starting Feb. 2.

Each weekly distribution will cover activity from the previous seven days.

The campaign is structured to release roughly $10 million worth of WLFI tokens per week, spread across four consecutive weeks, which brings the total allocation to $40 million in WLFI.

The exchange said the rewards are designed to reflect users’ qualifying USD1 balances over time, rather than a single moment in the campaign window.

Which USD1 balances count for eligibility

Eligibility is based on users’ net USD1 balances held on Binance, with multiple account types included in the calculation.

Binance confirmed that USD1 stored in Spot, Funding, Margin, and USDⓈ-M Futures accounts will all count toward the campaign’s rewards calculation.

However, borrowed funds are excluded. Binance said reward calculations are based on net USD1 balances, meaning any USD1 that has been borrowed does not qualify for WLFI rewards.

The exchange also said that USD1 used as collateral in margin or futures accounts earns a higher reward rate.

This introduces an added incentive for users who allocate USD1 into collateral-based trading products, rather than keeping it entirely idle in standard wallets.

Snapshot and rate system used for payouts

Binance said it will take hourly snapshots of user balances throughout the campaign period. However, the rewards calculation does not rely on an hourly average.

Instead, Binance will use the lowest USD1 balance recorded each day to determine a user’s qualifying amount for that day.

For each weekly payout, Binance will then calculate rewards using a seven-day average balance.

This ties distributions to consistency because a single daily dip in holdings could reduce the qualifying amount for that day and then affect the overall weekly average.

Binance also said payouts will use an effective annualised rate, which will be set at the time of each distribution.

As a result, the rate applied could vary between weekly drops depending on the conditions Binance sets when rewards are released.

USD1 growth and WLFI activity in early 2026

USD1, launched in April 2025, is described as a multichain stablecoin that is fully backed one-to-one by US dollars and money market funds.

Since its launch, it has recorded sharp growth. According to data from DeFiLlama, USD1’s market capitalisation now exceeds $3 billion.

The stablecoin is available across several blockchains, including Monad, Ethereum, Solana, and Aptos.

WLFI, the main token of the World Liberty Financial ecosystem, has also seen increased activity in early 2026.

It has recently been added to payroll services, decentralised finance lending platforms, and on-chain liquidity venues.

The token has drawn new interest and partnerships in recent weeks, though its connection to US President Donald Trump has also faced criticism, with some pointing to concerns around a potential conflict of interest.

Binance said users must complete identity verification and live in eligible jurisdictions to take part in the programme.

The exchange added that broker accounts are excluded and noted that reward timing may vary due to operational conditions.

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