Avalanche (AVAX) could hit new lows in 2022 as weakness beckons for the altcoin

Avalanche (AVAX) has blown hot and cold for the most part this year. But the coin could see a decisive bearish trend that could push it towards new 2022 lows in the coming days or weeks. Analysis to follow below but first, here are some of the facts to keep in mind:

  • Avalanche (AVAX) could face speculative bear pressure from short sellers in the coming days.

  • There is very limited upside potential right now for the coin.

  • At press time, AVAX was trading at around $71, down about 6% for the day.

Data Source: Tradingview 

Avalanche (AVAX) – Why new 2022 lows are coming?

AVAX started the week on the front foot. As with most coins in the crypto market, the altcoin surged but that momentum appears to have died down. Instead, the coin remained sluggish over the week and is approaching a crucial supply zone that could trigger immense short-term short selling. 

This is likely to push AVAX down towards $57, a loss of nearly 30%. This will also be the lowest the coin has been in 2022. The biggest challenge for AVAX is that there is a very little upward potential right now. 

Much of the price action that we have seen in recent days has been largely pushed by short-term traders who are likely to lock in profits. However, if AVAX bulls can push the coin back above $90, we may see some strength. This remains highly unlikely considering the volatile conditions in the market.

Is AVAX a good buy now?

Well, it depends on your strategy. For short-sellers who want to bet against the coin, this would be the time to get in. But for longer-term investors, stay out for a week or so. It is likely that AVAX will retreat towards $57 or thereabout. You can then buy cheaply and hold for the long haul.

Want to learn how to safely invest in AVAX? Check out our comprehensive AVAX buying guide here or purchase from our recommended platform below!

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Ankr interview – what the team think of MetaMask & Infura restrictions

If “pandemic” was the buzzword of 2020 (and, you know, 2021), then “sanctions” feels like the 2022 equivalent, as Europe careens towards an increasingly tragic war. With privacy, transparency and liberty such key issues in crypto, the industry has found itself right at the centre of a contentious tug-of-war. Believers vouch for the Russian citizens who can turn to crypto to escape a plummeting ruble, as well as the millions of dollars flowing into the Ukrainian donation addresses following appeals on Twitter from the Vice President.

Detractors, meanwhile, argue that crypto could allow nefarious states and agencies to circumvent restrictions. What would happen if Russia’s $630 billion of (mostly frozen) foreign assets were in crypto, hence immune to being frozen and free to be used to support the war effort?

MetaMask Restrictions

This week, certain users of MetaMask, the fundamental gateway to the Ethereum network, found they had their access privileges revoked. Users from Venezuela, Iran and Lebanon appear to be among those affected, with the bulk seeming to be from the former.

Although communication has been vague, the perpetrator seems to be the API for Infura, the Consensys-owned node infrastructure network which feeds into MetaMask. Both MetaMask and Infura made an extremely brief joint statement which didn’t clear much up, but did confirm the restrictions were very much intended.

“MetaMask and Infura are unavailable in certain jurisdictions due to legal compliance. When you attempt to use MetaMask in one of those regions, you will receive (an) error message” the joint statement read.

Decentralisation

It’s a fascinating issue, and one which has incensed a lot of people. The centralised vs decentralised debate is so close to crypto’s core, it needs no introduction, but these last few weeks have seen the face-off become oh-so-relevant – triggered by Canada freezing protesters accounts. The MetaMask episode is a reminder of just how centralised a lot of the infrastructure around crypto remains.

To get a further view on this, we caught up with the Ankr team, a decentralised blockchain infrastructure provider. With the ANKR token now north of $550 million market cap, TVL at $136 million and a passionate decentralised ethos, they present as an interesting interview regarding the MetaMask & Infura incident, and discuss the potential benefits that decentralisation could offer.

Interview

CoinJournal: How important do you think it is to have decentralized web3 infrastructure?

Ankr: Nodes are critical financial infrastructure. For Web3 to become a reality, significantly more effort and focus needs to be put toward building and leveraging truly decentralized node infrastructure. Although centralized node infrastructure providers can facilitate institutional adoption of Web3, they fail to align with Web3 principles by not incentivizing community-run nodes, falling under VC pressure to generate quick profits, and relying on centralized cloud providers prone to frequent outages and geo-specific latency and regulatory issues. This is a major issue for the Web3 economy, leaving the ecosystem open to attack and at the mercy of a few powerful players.

CJ: What is your opinion regarding the Infura geo-restrictions?

A: As a centralized entity, owned by Consensys – which itself is funded by companies like JP Morgan – infrastructure providers like Infura are subject to regulatory concerns and sanctions. This over-reliance on centralized service providers goes against everything that Web3 stands for and is meant to be – and represents a central point of failure that shouldn’t exist in the first place.

CJ: How important an issue is it for the cryptocurrency community – do you think Metamask may lose users as a result (to alternatives such as Alchemy?). Will there be any knock-on effects for Ankr?

A: Decentralization is an extremely important issue for the cryptocurrency community internationally. This is especially true for people in unstable countries and regulatory zones, who can be cut off from essential financial and other services as a result of sanctions or other decisions made by centralized authorities.

Metamask is not directly at fault here. The real issue is that Metamask’s default RPC provider is Infura – a centralized infrastructure provider that must comply with regulations and sanctions. Metamask would benefit from instead relying on a decentralized node infrastructure provider, like Ankr, which aims to function as a DAO-governed protocol.

CJ: Do you think we will begin to see more and more of such restrictions in crypto, much like censorship has become a bigger issue in Big Tech (Twitter banning Trump, Facebook removing misinformation, Spotify & Joe Rogan etc)?

A: These types of issues will remain relevant until decentralized infrastructure is adopted by all players in the crypto community. Instead of relying on centralized providers to support Web3, we should be leveraging Web3-native protocols with strong decentralization and properly-aligned community-first incentive structures. By supporting Web3 native protocols at the infrastructure level, the impact of restrictions will be lessened.

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Andre Cronje quits DeFi, but life will go on

Cryptocurrency is a dynamic industry changing at the speed of light, with new layers, projects and aims cropping up every day. Within crypto, DeFi is one of the most intriguing sectors in the space.

With the term itself – “DeFi”- coined only three years ago, it is very much in its infantile stage; it only broke into the crypto “mainstream” in summer 2020. But with change at this speed, friction is inevitable too. We saw that over the weekend when Andre Cronje, known by some as the Godfather of DeFi, downed tools and quit the space at large.

Resumé

Cronje is an impressive operator, his talents apparent by the disappointed reaction of crypto enthusiasts. His longtime partner-in-crime Anton Nell is also leaving the crypto space. Between the duo, they will be leaving around 25 DApps and services that they have been working on.

Perhaps the most prominent of these are Fantom and Yearn Finance, which plunged 15% and 13% respectively on the news. There were other coins which wobbled more (Solidly, which only launched last week, shed nearly two thirds of its value), showing the respect and importance the community placed on Cronje and his colleague.

Why Leave?

There are two possible reasons here. The first, and the most is likely, is that Cronje is a human being. And the thing about humans is that we are all different. Cronje is by all accounts an introvert, an incredibly talented coder who likes to build things. Of course, crypto operates on the Internet, and people on the Internet can be … not so friendly (to put it politely). The anonymous nature of a lot of Telegram, Twitter and Discord accounts means there is free reign for people to get aggressive, and when money is on the line that attitude is unfortunately exacerbated. One of crypto’s black marks is that it is so tribal and discussions can often get heated. Cronje was, by all accounts, simply fed up at being a scapegoat and a target of disgruntled investors.

It’s by far the most likely reason that Cronje defected. Indeed, he has quite before – in October 2020 he told CoinDesk, “I’m not building anything anymore. I do it because I’m passionate, but if people are going to use my test environments, then lose money, and then hold me liable, it means there is 0 upside and only risk for me”.

Heavy is the head that wears that crown.

Alternate Theories

Of course, there could be other reasons, but they amount to nothing but speculation. There is a chance that Cronje fears regulation or legal constraints, as the DeFi space becomes more mature and regulatory bodies continue to keep a closer eye on crypto. Theories abound that he will continue to operate in an anonymous capacity. He certainly loves to build things, and he has a gift. People like this generally can’t simply “retire” and do nothing, but then again – we are all different. Who am I to speculate what is going on in his mind? It could be a million different things.  Maybe he will return, maybe he won’t, but for now I’m going to take him at his word and assume he has left the space.

Consequences?

I don’t think this is the apocalypse that a lot of knee-jerk reactions propose it to be. Let’s take Yearn Finance for example after the 13% fall. Cronje has not worked on Yearn for over a year, while there are 50 full-time employees and 140 part time contributors still very much on board. At a market cap of $700 million at time of writing, it’s a big project. The red candle this reads like an overreaction to me. Let us not forget that Satoshi left Bitcoin behind, and that did just fine. Ditto for Fantom, which has a market cap of $3.6 billion currently.

After all, the space is called decentralised finance, meaning we should not be dependent on any one person or agency. Of course, that’s well and good in theory, but faces behind the applications which investors are trusting with their money do help provide a degree of confidence. But I don’t think this will be a big issue for the larger projects of Cronje’s. Sure, the smaller coins (such as Solidly above) will have a tougher time recovering, but in terms of the overall impact on the DeFi space, it should not be a hammer blow.

Where Now For DeFi?

Following the explosive growth of “DeFi Summer”, growth in the space has slowed with many investors growing angsty. Most of these projects have not yet gone through a prolonged bear market, with DappRadar reporting earlier this year that should a bear market last at least a year, 80% of DeFi apps would cease to exist.

“As far as crypto winter, DeFi DApps have never gone through it”, the report states.  “They have experienced crashes, but this feels like a prolonged one. Probably 20% of the apps that hold 80% of the industry value will survive. And we could see protocols that are not widely used fade away.”

TVL in DeFi currently sits at $195 billion, down 24% from the highs of $255 billion at the start of December.

TVL in the DeFi space over the last few years, via DefiLlama

Solving the very real wider issues in the space, rather than worrying about one developer, should be the priority. The real question we need to ask following Cronje’s “resignation”, is not what that means for certain DeFi apps, but rather does it signal something more problematic about the wider DeFi space in general. I tend to think it will be just fine.

 

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Cosmos is in a bullish reversal and could test even higher prices soon

Atom breaks out of a bearish channel and news supports a positive price action.

  • Cosmos making higher lows is a pointer to rising bullish momentum.

  • Major milestone hit on a critical Cosmos and Polkadot Bridge

  • Cosmos price action is also supported by the FXM listing. 

Cosmos ATOM/USD is not as well-known as the other large-cap cryptocurrencies. That said, it has been surging in value and is currently one of the few cryptos in the green, in a sea of red. So what exactly is Cosmos? 

Cosmos is a cryptocurrency that aims to interconnect Dapps across blockchains. The idea is to create an interconnected chain of Dapps and lay the foundation for Web 3.0. 

Over the past year, the Cosmos ecosystem has grown quite strongly and added a lot of value to the Cosmos (ATOM) token. That’s despite the fact that ATOM is an inflationary token.

The Cosmos ecosystem continues to grow

Cosmos is currently surging, and in the past week alone, is up by over 30%. This follows news that a bridge between Cosmos and Polkadot had hit a major milestone. News of this bridge has pushed up investor interest in ATOM because it will likely trigger an upsurge in the number of projects building on Cosmos.

Besides an update on the Cosmos/Polkadot Bridge called Astra/Shiden, Cosmos is also getting listed on more major exchanges. The latest big exchange to list Cosmos is FTX. This is a big deal because it means more liquidity and demand, especially now that the price is rising and new investors would want a piece of the pie. 

ATOM breaks out bearish channel

Source: TradingView

Since February 24, 2022, ATOM has been on an uptrend, even as the broader market slowed down. However, in the last 24-hours, ATOM has eased up.

All through Saturday and early Sunday, ATOM was trading in a bearish channel. It has since eased. However, in the last 4-hours, bulls have pushed ATOM through the upper resistance channel at $28.97. If volumes increase and a bullish reversal follows, ATOM could test prices above $35 in the next 24-hours.

However, if bears take control and the 24-hour support of $28.64 is lost, prices below $25 could be tested in the next 24-hours or so.

Summary

Cosmos (ATOM) is one of the few cryptocurrencies that are on an uptrend at the moment. This is driven by news of a major Cosmos/Polkadot bridge and the listing of ATOM on FTX. Trading volumes are rising, and price action indicates that ATOM could rally even further going into the new week.

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Lugano, Switzerland takes leaf out of El Salvador’s book

When El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in September, excitement rippled through the cryptocurrency world. It was a big step for crypto at large, and a giddy indicator of what the future could hold. Soon, enthusiasts started speculating if another country would follow.

Most believed it would be another low-income country, given weak currencies are typically very prone to shifting market environments and high inflation. Panama was perhaps the favourite, as they swiftly announced a bill to make Bitcoin legal tender following El Salvador’s move last year. Paraguay was another guess often floated, buoyed by their bill to regulate Bitcoin mining and trading before Christmas. All the frontrunners seemed to be Latin American, however, with Honduras and Guatemalan rumours also circulating on Internet forums.

Nobody got it right though. Because yesterday, the winner was announced as…a small city in southern Switzerland by the name of Lugano.

With a population of 62,000, Lugano is the ninth largest city in Switzerland. Sitting beautifully on Lake Lugano, it looks every bit as idyllic as a Windows screensaver.

So, what does the crypto announcement mean?

Lugano have played it a little differently than El Salvador, who went all-in on Bitcoin alone. The Swiss city have announced that Tether and LVGA (a CHF stablecoin), as well as Bitcoin, are now “de facto” legal tender.

El Salvador’s bet on Bitcoin is a lot more impactful and economically consequential on a macro scale, and not only for the fact that it is a country rather than a small city such as Lugano. But that’s not to say this won’t change anything in Lugano.

Citizens can now pay taxes in crypto, as well as parking tickets, tuition fees and public services. 200 businesses are also anticipated to accept payment for goods and services. So, while Bitcoin is not on equal footing to the Swiss franc, I think its especially interesting that stablecoins have been included as an option for citizens.

A repeated criticism of El Salvador’s decision was the detrimental impacts that Bitcoin’s notorious volatility would have when adopted as legal tender. But with stablecoins, price is obviously not a concern given the peg to fiat. It gives citizens a neat extra option – want to hold your savings in stablecoins, farming yield on a DeFi protocol, before seamlessly transferring over cash for your parking ticket? Well, that’s now possible.

Criticism

Of course, people will criticise the move as pointless and a publicity stunt. But in reality, what is bad about that? Here we are talking about a city of 62,000 in the middle of Europe, which never would have happened otherwise. What does the city have to lose? Blockchain startups, crypto unicorns and freelance enthusiasts are all the target of this change, but even if it only leads to a small bump in tourism, that’s still a win.

As I said above, the scale of the law is so minor that it is unlikely to cause any serious ramifications, such as what sceptics on El Salvador claim. The IMF, who urged El Salvador last month to “narrow the scope of the Bitcoin law by removing Bitcoin’s legal tender status”, won’t be knocking on the Lugano mayor’s office anytime soon. The concern surrounding financial integrity, protection of citizens and fiscal liabilities (given El Salvador’s small pool of government resources) won’t be a concern in Switzerland.

Tether

Tether are in partnership with Lugano, with chief technical officer Paolo Lugano saying at yesterday’s Plan B event that the firm had fund of 3 million Swiss francs together with Lugano officials, in order to push the adoption of Bitcoin, Tether and the LVGA token. He repeated the main goal – an initiative focused on making the city a buzzing blockchain hub in Europe.

It’s a fun episode in the exciting world of crypto, and it will be interesting to track whether Lugano can attract talent, businesses and traders to their beautiful city.

So, who is going to be next?

 

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