Bitcoin price surges to $1,15,660 as ETF inflows and Fed policy shift align

  • Bitcoin has surged back above $115,660 amid a powerful rally.
  • The move is fueled by a massive $757 million net ETF inflow in one day.
  • Traders are now pricing in a 92 percent chance of a Fed rate cut next week.

The slumbering giant has awakened. Bitcoin has roared back to life, surging past the critical $115,660 level in a powerful display of force, fueled by a perfect storm of renewed institutional hunger and a macroeconomic landscape that is increasingly tilting in its favor.

The move marks a decisive break from the summer’s stagnation, with a torrent of capital now flooding into the asset as the market braces for a pivotal policy shift from the Federal Reserve.

The institutional stampede

The clearest and most powerful catalyst for the rally is the dramatic return of institutional buyers. On September 10, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a staggering $757 million in net inflows, the single strongest daily intake in eight weeks.

This brings the total for September to an impressive $1.39 billion, a clear sign that the voracious appetite that drove the market to all-time highs is back.

This institutional stampede was broad-based, with all twelve US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording inflows.

The charge was led by Fidelity’s FBTC, which absorbed over $156 million, and Ark’s ARKB, which took in $84 million. The renewed conviction was also visible in the futures market, where open interest rose a formidable 6.6 percent to $43.3 billion.

The shifting sands of the macro landscape

This flood of institutional capital is being met with an increasingly favorable macroeconomic tide. A volley of conflicting but ultimately dovish economic data has all but cemented the case for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.

While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hot, it was completely overshadowed by an unexpected drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and a spike in initial jobless claims to their highest level since October 2021.

This combination of cooling wholesale inflation and rising labor market stress has traders now assigning a commanding 92 percent probability to a quarter-point Fed cut next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

A glimpse of the supercycle?

While the short-term picture is being driven by flows and Fed hopes, a far more dramatic story is being sketched out on the long-term charts.

From a structural standpoint, Bitcoin’s weekly chart is displaying two powerful inverse head-and-shoulders patterns, formations that have technical analysts buzzing about the dawn of a new supercycle.

The smaller pattern, confirmed after July’s breakout, projects a target near $170,000. A much broader formation, which dates back to 2021, remains active and points to an almost unbelievable long-term target of $360,000.

While these are just technical projections, they are adding a powerful layer of long-term bullish conviction to the short-term speculative fervor.

The great rotation

The rally’s strength is further amplified by a clear and significant rotation of capital within the crypto ecosystem itself.

While Bitcoin ETFs are flourishing, their Ethereum counterparts are bleeding. ETH-focused ETFs have seen $668 million in outflows in September, a stark divergence that underscores a clear market preference for Bitcoin in a macro-driven environment.

While other large-cap tokens are mixed, the message from the institutional world is clear: in this new chapter of the bull market, the king is reclaiming his throne.

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Bitcoin treasury purchase size collapses 86%, data shows

  • Total BTC treasury holdings have hit a record high of 840,000 BTC.
  • However, the average purchase size has collapsed by a staggering 86 percent.
  • This waning demand was the key driver of the Q2 Bitcoin rally.

They were the heroes of the last great rally, the talk of the town at the recent BTC Asia conference, their voracious appetite for Bitcoin single-handedly driving the market to new heights.

But a shadow has fallen over the world of the corporate Bitcoin treasury.

A new report reveals a worrying trend beneath the surface: while their total holdings are larger than ever, their conviction, measured by the size of their buys, has collapsed.

The great contradiction: more players, smaller bets

The on-chain data, laid bare in a new report from CryptoQuant, tells a tale of two conflicting truths.

On one hand, the aggregate Bitcoin treasury holdings have surged to a record 840,000 BTC, a war chest led by the titan Strategy, which holds 637,000 BTC. Transaction activity also remains near record levels, with 46 deals in August alone.

But on the other hand, the average size of these purchases has fallen off a cliff. Strategy bought just 1,200 BTC per transaction in August, while other firms averaged a mere 343 BTC.

Both of these figures are down a staggering 86 percent from their peaks in early 2025. In total, Strategy acquired only 3,700 BTC in August, a whisper compared to the 134,000 BTC it bought at its peak last year.

This is not the behavior of a market brimming with confidence; it is the sign of smaller, more hesitant buys, a clear signal of liquidity constraints or waning conviction.

The ghost of rallies past

This dramatic slowdown is a major concern for investors because it was the relentless engine of treasury accumulation that drove Bitcoin’s spectacular price growth in the second quarter.

As CoinDesk reported at the time, by late August 2025, institutions were absorbing more than 3,100 BTC a day against a mere 450 being mined.

This created a powerful 6-to-1 demand-supply imbalance that sent prices soaring.

Now, that engine is sputtering. This slouching demand raises the critical risk that the market’s current price strength may not be sustainable if the giants of the space continue to nibble cautiously rather than devour at scale.

A new hope? The rise of Asia’s treasury front

But as the Western giants grow hesitant, a new front in the treasury movement is opening in the East.

According to a Bitwise report, 28 new treasury companies were formed in July and August alone, collectively adding over 140,000 BTC to their coffers.

More significantly, Asia is emerging as the next major battleground. Taiwan-based Sora Ventures has launched a massive 1 billion dollar fund specifically to seed new regional treasury firms, with an initial commitment of 200 million dollars.

This new vehicle will pool institutional capital to support a fresh wave of entrants, a different model from the region’s current largest player, Metaplanet.

The stage is now set for a fascinating and pivotal confrontation.

The central question that will define the next phase of Bitcoin adoption—and its price—is whether this new, hungry wave of Asian treasuries can offset the shrinking appetite of the incumbents who first blazed the trail.

Market updates

BTC: Bitcoin remains resilient for now, trading in the 110,000–113,000 dollar range. The price is being supported by broad expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and continued, if smaller, institutional inflows via ETFs.

ETH: Ethereum is trading near the 4,300 dollar level. Its recent weakness, marked by a 3.8 percent weekly decline, is being attributed to ETF outflows and the historically subdued trading that characterizes “Red September.”

However, its longer-term outlook remains positive, buoyed by deep institutional interest and growing staking activity.

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Crypto update: Why Bitcoin is stalling while Ethereum eyes a breakout

  • A major split is emerging between Bitcoin and Ethereum in the market.
  • Bitcoin is acting as a macro hedge, holding steady around $112,000.
  • Traders are actively positioning for upside in Ethereum, eyeing $5,000.

A profound and telling split has fractured the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin, the long-reigning king, has settled into a stoic holding pattern, a defensive fortress against the gathering storms of macroeconomic uncertainty.

But the real action, the aggressive positioning for explosive growth, is happening in a different court.

A great rotation is underway, and traders are increasingly placing their bets on a new champion to lead the charge into September: Ethereum.

The fortress: Bitcoin as a macro hedge

Bitcoin is currently stuck in consolidation, trading near $112,000. But its lack of upward momentum is, paradoxically, part of its emerging narrative.

It is increasingly being treated not as a speculative growth asset, but as a steady macro hedge, a digital counterpart to gold.

This view is being driven by the deep uncertainty emanating from Washington.

In a recent note, QCP Capital wrote that persistent doubts about the Federal Reserve’s independence are keeping risk premiums elevated, a dynamic that weakens the dollar and directly supports hedges like Bitcoin and gold.

The options market tells a similar story of defense.

Flowdesk reported muted implied volatility in Bitcoin, suggesting traders are positioning for stability, not a breakout.

The skew remains negative, meaning puts are expensive—a clear sign that the market is paying a premium for downside protection.

The spearhead: Ethereum as the engine of ascent

While Bitcoin holds the defensive line, Ethereum is being positioned as the market’s spearhead. This is where traders see the real potential for a September breakout.

The data is clear: ETH risk reversals have recovered sharply from their recent selloff, indicating a renewed and aggressive demand for upside exposure.

Prediction markets are validating this theme with real-money bets. Polymarket sentiment shows traders expect Bitcoin to remain capped near $120,000, while giving Ethereum a strong chance of breaking the coveted $5,000 mark.

This view is consistent with its powerful 20 percent rally over the past month and the surging institutional interest being funneled through ETF inflows.

The widening rebellion

This rotation is not just a two-horse race. The renewed appetite for risk is broadening, with capital flowing into a wider array of altcoins. Solana (SOL) options have seen a surge in activity, with flows heavily skewed to the upside.

At the same time, spot activity has rotated into so-called “ETH beta” names like AAVE and AERO, as well as “SOL betas” like RAY and DRIFT.

This is a crucial sign that market breadth is improving, as conviction spreads beyond the majors.

The market is sending a clear, if complex, signal. The macro chaos is reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation and institutional decay.

But the momentum, the capital flows, and the speculative energy are all gathering in the court of its challenger.

The stage is set for a fascinating and potentially volatile September, where the fortress and the spearhead will finally have their mettle tested.

Market updates:

BTC: Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase around the $110,000–$112,000 range, marked by waning short‑term volatility.

ETH: ETH is trading near $4,400. Its rally is being fuelled by surging institutional interest, especially via ETF inflows, and anticipation surrounding the upcoming Fusaka network upgrade.

Gold: Gold is trading around record highs, propelled by expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut (markets now price in about a 92% chance), weakening confidence in Fed independence, and increased demand from conviction buyers like ETFs and central banks.

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US SEC, CFTC clear path for registered firms to trade spot crypto

  • Top US regulators have jointly cleared a path for spot crypto trading.
  • The move is a stark reversal from the previous, more skeptical administration.
  • Registered exchanges are now invited to engage with the SEC and CFTC.

The floodgates to the heart of the American financial system have been thrown open.

In a landmark and coordinated move, the nation’s top markets watchdogs have given their official blessing for registered trading platforms to deal in spot crypto assets, a stark and powerful reversal that signals a new, pro-innovation era for the digital asset industry.

The joint statement from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday is the clearest sign yet of the tectonic shift in Washington’s approach to cryptocurrency.

Under the previous administration, the industry was met with hesitation and skepticism.

Now, under regulators appointed by the avowedly pro-crypto President Donald Trump, a wide and clear path is being paved for digital assets to integrate into the existing financial system.

A coordinated push from the top

This is not a tentative step, but a coordinated sprint.

The agencies revealed that under the SEC’s “Project Crypto” and the CFTC’s ongoing “crypto sprint,” their leaders are actively pushing to fulfill President Trump’s mandate to establish the US as the world’s preeminent crypto hub.

The regulators declared their unified view that existing, regulated exchanges “are not prohibited from facilitating the trading of certain spot crypto asset products.”

This includes CFTC-registered designated contract markets (DCMs) and SEC-registered national securities exchanges (NSEs).

In a clear invitation to Wall Street, the agencies are now encouraging such entities to contact their staff to figure out how to move forward.

The philosophy behind the move was articulated by the leaders themselves.

“Market participants should have the freedom to choose where they trade spot crypto assets,” said SEC Chairman Paul Atkins in a statement.

His counterpart at the CFTC, Acting Chairman Caroline Pham, echoed this sentiment, calling the joint statement “the latest demonstration of our mutual objective of supporting growth and development in these markets, but it will not be the last.”

Clearing the path as Congress deliberates

While the statement did not detail which specific cryptocurrencies would be covered, referring only to “certain spot crypto asset products,” its intent is unmistakable.

The regulators are acting decisively, using their existing authorities to open the financial system to crypto now, even as Congress continues its slow and deliberate work on a more sweeping set of market rules.

This move also directly addresses one of the most persistent and problematic holes in US crypto oversight: the CFTC’s historical lack of clear authority to fully regulate the spot market, where the actual assets are changing hands.

By inviting registered firms to engage, the agencies are effectively building a regulatory bridge while the legislative foundation is still being laid.

The message to the financial world is clear: the era of waiting is over, and the time to build is now.

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Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys the Bitcoin dip, adds 4,048 BTC

  • The acquisition cost $449.3 million, with the company paying an average of $110,981 per coin.
  • Following the latest acquisition, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings rose to 636,505 BTC.
  • The company’s latest purchase follows a series of smaller acquisitions in August.

Strategy, the world’s largest public company holding Bitcoin, led by Michael Saylor, disclosed in a US Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Tuesday that it purchased 4,048 Bitcoin between August 25 and September 1.

The acquisition cost $449.3 million, with the company paying an average of $110,981 per coin.

According to CoinGecko data cited in the filing, the purchases were made as Bitcoin prices briefly climbed above $113,000 before dropping below $108,000 last Friday.

Strategy’s BTC bet

Following the latest acquisition, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings rose to 636,505 BTC.

The company has acquired its reserves for approximately $46.95 billion, at an average purchase price of $73,765 per coin.

The company said the latest acquisitions were financed through proceeds from at-the-market sales of its Class A common stock (MSTR) as well as its perpetual preferred stock programs, including Strike (STRK), Strife (STRF), and Stride (STRD).

Strategy reported that it sold 1,237,000 MSTR shares for $425.3 million, with $16.31 billion still available for issue under its at-the-market program.

In addition, the company sold 199,509 STRK shares for about $19 million, with $20.39 billion remaining, 237,931 STRF shares for $26.5 million, with $1.8 billion remaining, and 12,973 STRD shares for $1 million, leaving $4.17 billion available.

August buying activity slows

The company’s latest purchase follows a series of smaller acquisitions in August.

Strategy had announced the purchase of 3,081 BTC last week, along with earlier acquisitions of 430 BTC and 155 BTC in the same month.

Combined with the most recent purchase, the company acquired 7,714 BTC in August, significantly lower than the 31,466 BTC bought in July.

Saylor had signalled the likelihood of additional acquisitions ahead of the filing, posting an update to Strategy’s Bitcoin tracker over the weekend, saying Bitcoin was “still on sale.”

The company also confirmed that a group of investors dropped a class action lawsuit on Thursday.

The lawsuit, filed in May, alleged that Strategy had made false and misleading statements about its investment strategy.

The BTC treasury race

According to data from Bitcoin Treasuries, 163 public companies have adopted some form of Bitcoin acquisition model.

Other large holders include MARA with 50,639 BTC, Tether-backed Twenty One with 43,514 BTC, Adam Back and Cantor Fitzgerald-backed Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company with 30,021 BTC, Bullish with 24,000 BTC, Metaplanet with 20,000 BTC, Riot Platforms with 19,239 BTC, Trump Media & Technology Group with 15,000 BTC, CleanSpark with 12,703 BTC, and Coinbase with 11,776 BTC.

 

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