Bitcoin drops as bearish data sparks a 10% price dip warning

  • Bitcoin has dropped below the key 120,000 dollar level amid a fresh sell-off.
  • The market is showing signs of low volume and a lack of upward momentum.
  • Key on-chain data shows a lack of bid support below the 120,000 dollar mark.

The triumphant return of the bulls has proven to be a fleeting and fragile affair.

Just as the market was beginning to celebrate a new era of price discovery, a wave of determined selling has sent Bitcoin tumbling back below the critical 120,000 dollar level, a brutal rejection that has the bears once again in control and raises the grim prospect of a much deeper correction.

The sell-off, which has seen the leading cryptocurrency fall nearly 3 percent on the day, is a story of fading momentum and evaporating support.

The recent all-time highs now feel like a distant memory as the market slices through the bid liquidity that had once held it aloft.

A market bracing for a deeper cut

The mood among seasoned traders has shifted from cautious optimism to a grim acceptance of a new, more bearish reality.

The market is now at a critical inflection point, with the very support that was so hard-won now under a sustained and powerful assault.

“Market does still quote bid liquidity around 121K-120K but what we need to see next is absorption of sellers to rule out a sweep lower,” the popular trader Skew wrote in his latest market commentary on X.

His short-term outlook was stark, adding that the market was “quite likely to be dominated by new shorts opening.”

This view is being reinforced by the data.

The trading resource Material Indicators highlighted that the market is now facing its “3rd consecutive Daily support test at the trend line,” a technical setup that suggests the bears are growing bolder with each attempt.

Data from CoinGlass paints an even more worrying picture, showing a distinct lack of bid support much below the 120,000 dollar mark, while a wall of sell orders has multiplied overhead.

The return of the $108,000 ghost

This short-term weakness is taking place against a backdrop of a more troubling long-term picture.

The veteran trader Roman warned his followers on X that the situation for Bitcoin remains tenuous, despite its recent record highs.

“A friendly reminder that we are once again printing more bearish divergences, low volume, & lack of momentum on HTF. Both 1W & 1M,” he wrote, pointing to a series of classic warning signs that the rally is running out of steam.

His conclusion is a chilling one for the bulls: the local range lows at 108,000 dollars, a level that has been a key battleground in the past, could soon come back into play.

The king of crypto may have briefly touched the heavens, but the bears are now doing their best to drag it back down to earth.

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Economist Timothy Peterson puts Bitcoin price forecast at $140,000 by end of this month

  • Timothy Peterson’s market simulation shows a 50% chance Bitcoin hits $140K in October.
  • Bitcoin recently hit $126K, needing a 14.7% rise to reach $140K.
  • Other analysts, however, note likely short-term pullbacks before potential sustained gains.

Economist Timothy Peterson has projected that Bitcoin could reach $140,000 before the end of October, citing data-driven simulations that indicate a 50% probability of the world’s largest cryptocurrency closing the month above that mark.

The analysis, grounded in more than a decade of Bitcoin’s historical price behaviour, suggests that half of the cryptocurrency’s potential October gains may already have occurred.

Data-driven prediction, not speculation

Peterson’s projection, shared on X on October 7, 2025, was based on “hundreds of simulations” using Bitcoin’s daily price data since 2015.

“There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140K,” he wrote, adding that there is a 43% chance it could finish below $136,000.

According to Peterson, the forecast is purely statistical, not influenced by sentiment or subjective opinion.

He emphasised that the results were “based purely on real data, not human emotion or biased opinion,” designed to reflect Bitcoin’s historical volatility and cyclical rhythm.

At the time of his analysis, Bitcoin was trading at around $122,000, having cooled slightly after setting a new all-time high of $126,200 earlier in the week.

Reaching $140,000 would require a roughly 14.7% gain from current levels, a move that aligns closely with Bitcoin’s average October performance over the past decade.

Historical data from CoinGlass shows that October has been Bitcoin’s second-best month since 2013, typically delivering gains of about 20.75%.

October’s historical significance for Bitcoin

Peterson explained that “Bitcoin’s performance in October isn’t ‘set up’ by September, it’s set up throughout the entire year.”

The economist linked Bitcoin’s seasonal strength to broader financial patterns, such as the end of third-quarter portfolio rebalancing, the start of fiscal year planning, and the approach of year-end reporting windows for investment funds.

These factors, he suggested, create favourable conditions for renewed capital inflows into Bitcoin and other risk assets.

While Peterson’s model offers a probability-based outlook, he cautioned that markets do not always conform perfectly to historical patterns.

Bitcoin’s past behaviour has occasionally diverged from expectations even when data indicated high confidence levels.

Nonetheless, he maintains that the model provides a “clear, probability-based picture” of where Bitcoin’s value is most likely to move in the short term.

Market sentiment leans bullish

Peterson’s forecast comes as market sentiment around Bitcoin remains generally optimistic.

Crypto analysts such as Jelle and Matthew Hyland have echoed bullish outlooks in recent days, highlighting Bitcoin’s successful retest of previous highs and suggesting that momentum could push prices further upward.

Earlier this week, Jelle posted, “It’s definitely over for bears. Send it higher,” while Hyland noted that “the pressure is building.”

However, not all voices in the market are calling for an immediate surge.

Analyst Ardi, known for his technical commentary, pointed out that Bitcoin often experiences a short-term pullback of around 5% after hitting new all-time highs.

Such moves, Ardi said, are typically followed by a period of choppiness and consolidation—a pattern that could play out again before any sustained rally.

Technical outlook supports Bitcoin’s upward potential

Technical indicators also appear to support a bullish bias in the near term.

According to market analysis, Bitcoin’s key support level stands at $120,899, with immediate resistance at $124,148 and a higher target of $126,021.

The cryptocurrency is currently trading above all major exponential moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs), signalling strong upward momentum.

Projections are that Bitcoin could reach around $121,633 in the coming days, with longer-term forecasts setting ambitious price targets of $221,485 for 2025.

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Bitcoin dips below $122K after 16% rally, altcoins follow as analysts eye rebound

  • Bitcoin slips under $122K after a 16% surge fueled by ETFs and futures.
  • Profit-taking triggers a short-term dip, pulling major altcoins down 4–7%.
  • Analysts eye a potential rebound, with Bitcoin aiming past $130K and altcoins poised for recovery.

Bitcoin took a bit of a breather on Tuesday, slipping below the $122,000 mark after a blistering rally that had traders buzzing with excitement.

For the traders following the crypto rollercoaster, this pullback probably didn’t come as a huge surprise.

The market had been running pretty hot, and sometimes you just need to catch your breath before the next big move.

Bitcoin price: What’s behind the dip?

So, what’s causing Bitcoin and its crypto cousins like Solana, Cardano, and XRP to catch some cold feet right now? Well, a lot of it comes down to the fast-paced buying spree we saw over the past several days.

Bitcoin’s price zoomed up by around 16%, fueled by a flood of fresh investments pouring into ETFs and futures.

It’s like everyone piled onto the bandwagon at once, which can make things a little wobbly. When the crowd rushes in simultaneously, it often leads to what experts call an “overheated” market.

Basically, traders get a bit too optimistic, pushing prices higher than what fundamentals might support in the short term. Then, boom, some folks start locking in profits, and the selling begins.

We saw exactly that as bitcoin lost some steam, dragging most altcoins down with it, with drops ranging from 4% to 7% for the bigger names.

But here’s the thing, it’s not all doom and gloom. These kinds of corrections are pretty common in volatile markets like crypto.

Think of it this way: it cleans out the weak hands and sets the stage for healthier growth ahead. Plus, bitcoin still has strong support around the $118,000 to $120,000 zone, which many believe will keep the floor from falling out completely.

What’s next for crypto?

Many analysts are keeping a hopeful eye on the coming weeks. If Bitcoin can hang onto those key support levels, the path might just be clear for it to climb back past $130,000, riding the momentum of a strong finish to 2025.

Of course, the crypto world isn’t just about Bitcoin. Ethereum, for one, has been holding up relatively well, partly thanks to growing interest in staking and the ongoing development of decentralized finance platforms.

The altcoin scene may have taken a hit during this pullback, but it’s not out of the game.

Tokens like Solana and XRP are still on many investors’ radars, especially with potential new ETF approvals on the horizon and technical upgrades underway.

October has historically been a lively month for crypto, so don’t be surprised if the market springs back with a classic “Uptober” rally soon.

That said, this ride isn’t for the faint of heart. The market’s inherent volatility means prices can swing wildly, sometimes on little more than speculation or headlines.

Plus, global economic factors and regulatory news can turn the tide pretty quickly.

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The Paraguayan power play: How a shocking production boost sent HIVE’s stock soaring 25%

  • HIVE Digital stock surged over 25% after a strong September production report.
  • The company mined 267 BTC, an 8% increase from the previous month.
  • Year-over-year production has grown a massive 138 percent.

In a stunning display of operational excellence and rapid expansion, the Canadian Bitcoin miner HIVE Digital Technologies has delivered a jolt of power to the market, announcing a substantial and surprising increase in its Bitcoin production that sent its stock soaring over 25 percent.

The news is a powerful testament to the success of the company’s aggressive growth strategy, particularly its massive new facility in the heart of South America.

The market reaction was swift and decisive. Following the announcement, HIVE’s stock jumped more than 25 percent, closing at $5.57 on October 6.

This surge was a direct response to a stellar September production report, in which the company mined 267 BTC—an 8 percent increase from August and a staggering 138 percent jump in year-over-year growth.

The Paraguayan power play

The engine behind this explosive growth is the company’s new 100 MW Phase 3 Valenzuela plant in Paraguay.

HIVE confirmed that the facility, which is powered exclusively by renewable hydroelectric energy, is coming online “ahead of schedule.”

Almost half of the facility’s total hashrate capacity is now operational, a major milestone that has immediately translated into a surge in daily production, which now averages over 9 BTC per day.

This rapid deployment has had a dramatic effect on the company’s overall operational power.

HIVE’s average hashrate—the computational power it uses to mine Bitcoin—surged by 19 percent from August to September alone, a clear sign of the new facility’s immediate impact.

Beating the network: a story of surging efficiency

But this is not just a story of brute force; it is a story of remarkable efficiency.

During the same period that HIVE’s own hashrate grew by 19 percent, the entire Bitcoin network’s mining difficulty—a measure of how hard it is to mine a new block—rose by 16 percent.

HIVE’s ability to outpace the network’s own growth is a critical signal that it is operating with increasing efficiency, a key factor in a miner’s long-term profitability.

A glimpse into a high-powered future

The company’s leadership has made it clear that this is just the beginning.

Executive Chairman Frank Holmes praised the Paraguay team for advancing Phase 3 “ahead of schedule,” a sentiment echoed by the company’s ambitious forward guidance.

President and CEO Aydin Kilic has confirmed HIVE’s expectation of reaching a total hashrate of 25 EH/s by US Thanksgiving, a significant jump from its current peak of 21.7 EH/s.

He also noted a projected fleet efficiency of 17.5 joules/terahash, a key metric in a competitive market.

With all of the necessary ASIC mining machines for the Paraguay expansion already shipped, the path to this next phase of growth appears clear.

For HIVE, the Paraguayan gambit is paying off, and the market has taken notice.

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Cardano (ADA) eyes $0.89 breakout as Bitcoin steals the spotlight

  • Whales have accumulated 70M ADA as retail traders stay cautious.
  • Cardano (ADA) faces key breakout resistance near the $0.89 level.
  • Bitcoin’s dominance limits altcoin momentum and ADA’s recovery.

Cardano’s price has been caught in a tug-of-war as the broader crypto market rallies behind Bitcoin’s surge to record highs.

While Cardano (ADA) remains more than 70% below its all-time peak, signs of accumulation by large holders suggest that the token could be preparing for a decisive move, with $0.89 emerging as the key breakout level.

However, retail hesitation and shifting market sentiment continue to weigh on its momentum, leaving traders watching closely for confirmation of the next trend.

Bitcoin dominance leaves Cardano lagging

Bitcoin’s climb to $125,000 has reshaped the market landscape, pulling liquidity from altcoins into BTC and exchange-traded funds.

The Bitcoin Dominance Index has risen to 58.3%, reflecting a clear rotation of capital that has left many altcoins struggling to keep up.

Bitcoin Dominance
Source: CoinMarketCap

Cardano has not been spared, underperforming the wider market and slipping by 0.5% over the past 24 hours to trade at $0.854.

Cardano’s trading volumes have fallen by 13% to $1.13 billion, signalling a dip in immediate demand even as technical patterns show a buildup of pressure beneath the surface.

Whales accumulating ADA as retail hesitates

Beneath the quiet price action, large Cardano holders have been steadily adding to their positions.

Wallets holding between 10 million and 1 billion ADA have collectively absorbed an additional 70 million tokens in recent days, worth close to $59 million at current prices.

Cardano (ADA) whale accumulation
Source: Santiment

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a measure of capital inflows, has turned positive at 0.12, reinforcing the view that larger players are preparing for a potential upside move.

However, the enthusiasm of retail traders has not matched this activity.

The Money Flow Index has been trending lower, pointing to weaker conviction among smaller investors.

This divergence between whale accumulation and retail caution has kept ADA coiled inside a symmetrical triangle, delaying a sharper breakout even as broader conditions tilt in favour of accumulation.

ADA price analysis

From a technical standpoint, ADA faces layered resistance that could determine whether the token manages to escape its consolidation range.

The immediate barrier lies at $0.855, where the 50-day simple moving average converges with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

A stronger resistance zone sits between $0.86 and $0.89, the latter acting as the critical breakout level that traders are monitoring.

A daily close above $0.89 would confirm bullish momentum and open a path toward $0.93 and $0.95.

On the other hand, Cardano’s price has tested $0.832, a zone tied to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which now serves as a short-term floor.

A deeper dip below $0.78 would invalidate the bullish setup and confirm a bearish turn, leaving the triangle structure broken.

But until then, ADA remains in a delicate balance between buyer accumulation and market hesitation.

Cardano price outlook sparks optimism

Despite its struggles, some analysts believe Cardano is primed for a resurgence reminiscent of past breakout runs seen in other major assets.

Market analyst Timofei argues that ADA mirrors the conditions that allowed XRP to surge in 2024 and Solana to rebound dramatically in 2023.

Notably, XRP posted a 239% rally last year, while Solana’s comeback from the depths of the FTX collapse saw a 919% increase.

Timofei notes that ADA has been consolidating inside an expanding symmetrical triangle since early 2023.

The analyst notes that after a rejection near $1.32 in December, Cardano (ADA) has moved closer to the midpoint of the structure.

Timofei expects a retest of the lower trendline, which could mark the final bottom before a significant rebound.

His analysis points to a potential breakout that could send ADA back toward the $3 region, a 254% gain from current prices.

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