Key breakout to accelerate Bitcoin weakness as price slips below 200-day MA

  • Bitcoin trades at above $19,000 in a bear market and support area

  • 200-day moving average joined resistance for Bitcoin

  • A breakout of the inside bar pattern could accelerate bear weakness

Bitcoin BTC/USD is trading at 19,580. At the current price, the world’s largest cryptocurrency sits at support. However, Bitcoin may crash below the support as more bearish indicators emerge. Fundamentals and market sentiment also weigh on the price of Bitcoin.

The price of Bitcoin has been so far pegged on the state of the economy. Rising inflation is a bear trigger for Bitcoin. Inflation ignites faster action by central banks to tighten policy. On Thursday, data showed that the Fed’s key inflation gauge rose by 4.7% in May. Despite being lower than estimates of 4.8%, the rate was at levels only seen in the 1980s. 

In its comments, the Fed has hinted at faster rate hikes to tame the costly inflation. Markets anticipate up to a 75 basis point rate hike in July. The faster rate action would be bearish for Bitcoin. Current technical indicators suggest another bear leg is on the horizon.

 The 200-day moving average offers Bitcoin resistance for the first time

Source – TradingView

The weekly chart gives the long-term trend of Bitcoin. The 200-day moving average joined resistance for the cryptocurrency at key support. An RSI reading of 25 may suggest the cryptocurrency is oversold. Nonetheless, this does not mean the bear’s weakness is over. A short-term appreciation in price may be met with a sharp downturn. 

Bitcoin also forms an inside bar pattern at the key support. We need to see whether the weekly candlestick breaks below. A breakout of the inside bar to the downside and below the support will heighten the bear market. The next support is around 11,661.

Concluding thoughts

The 200-day moving average has joined Bitcoin resistance for the first time. The price faces bear pressure at the support. An inside bar breaking out to the downside will weaken the cryptocurrency further.

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Bitcoin maintains its price above $21k as the market slowly recovers

The cryptocurrency is recovering after a poor start to the day, with most coins still in the red zone.

The cryptocurrency market has had a poor start to the day. The market was down by more than 2% earlier today but is slowly recovering and is only down by 1.25% at the time of this analysis. 

The total cryptocurrency market cap stands above $950 billion. The bulls could look to push this past the $1 trillion mark in the coming days if last week’s momentum can be repeated.

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, is down by 1.3% in the last 24 hours. The coin dropped below the $21k psychological level a few hours ago but has bounced back and now trades above $21,100.

The bulls have been able to keep Bitcoin above the $20k mark over the past few days. It dropped below $18k earlier this month but has maintained its value above $20k since then.

Key levels to watch

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is neutral as Bitcoin has slightly underperformed over the past 24 hours.

The MACD line is around the neutral zone, indicating that Bitcoin is neither bullish nor bearish at the moment. The 14-day relative strength index of 51 shows that Bitcoin is no longer in the oversold region. However, it is also some way off from entering the overbought territory.

If the bulls continue to push harder, BTC could cross the first major resistance level at $21,519 before the end of the day. However, it would need the support of the broader market to move past the $22,899 resistance level for the first time in a week.

The broader market is still bearish, and this could see BTC lose its $20,500 support level in the coming hours. A drop below $20,500 could push Bitcoin below the $20k level for the second time in less than a week.

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Bitcoin is a commodity, says SEC’s Gary Gensler

There is no precise regulation of cryptocurrencies in the United States at the moment, but regulators are focusing their attention on the industry.

Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC), has pointed out that he believes Bitcoin is the only security. He made this statement during an interview with CNBC on Monday.

When asked about the regulatory efforts by the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Gensler said most cryptocurrencies fall under securities. He added that he believes only Bitcoin is a commodity. Gensler said;

“This is a highly speculative asset class. We’ve known this for a long time. The ups and downs of this speculative asset class. When people invest in bitcoin and hundreds of other crypto tokens, they hope for a return, just like when they invest in other financial assets. Many cryptocurrencies have the key attributes of securities, which means they fall under the SEC. Some, like bitcoin, and that’s the only one I’m going to say, are commodities.”

Gensler pointed out that there needs to be a collaboration between the SEC, the CFTC and the banking regulator to ensure that cryptocurrency investors are adequately protected. 

He complained that most tokens currently available in the cryptocurrency market are non-compliant with the financial regulators in place. 

The SEC chair was also asked about stablecoins. Stablecoins have become a hot topic within the financial ecosystem. The recent collapse of the UST stablecoin has seen regulators in various parts of the world turn their attention to stablecoins.

Gensler pointed out that work needs to be done around stablecoins. He added that banking regulators need to ensure that the investing public is protected from stablecoins. He stated that;

“There’s a lot of risk in crypto, and there’s also a lot of risk in classic securities markets. In the U.S, we have market regulators like the CFTC and the SEC to help protect the public against fraud and manipulation in the markets.”

Bitcoin has dropped below $21k after losing more than 1% of its value in the last 24 hours.

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Bitcoin is not going away as a macro asset, says Mike Novogratz

Bitcoin has lost more than 60% of its value in the last seven months, but that hasn’t changed its status as a macro asset.

In a recent interview, Mike Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Digital, told the New York Magazine that Bitcoin is not going away as a macro asset.

He made this statement when asked about the ongoing bear market. Novogratz said;

“You have to put things in perspective. If I told you at the beginning of the pandemic you could buy Zoom stock or bitcoin — today, you would have doubled your money on bitcoin, and you’d have made nothing on Zoom. So that’s what I think is hard for people to get their heads around. This has been a complete and total old-school ass-beating. But it’s important not to throw the baby out with the bathwater because we had a speculative mania in lots of asset classes. Bitcoin is not going away as a macro asset. Web3 is not going away.”

Novogratz believes that the metaverse will grow more prominent over the coming years, and more people will spend digital assets within the metaverse. 

When asked if the current market crash is similar to what we saw in 2018 and 2014, Novogratz said each bear market is different. He stated that;

“I’m hoping we saw the worst last weekend. I’d be more confident of that if I knew where inflation was going to be in the next two quarters. But if you had a sell order, you most likely sold — ethereum went down to $890, bitcoin went down to $17,900. And so I think now you’re going to see the triage you see after big crashes, where people are a little less risky or a lot less risky. And so, in all likelihood, we have a big recession coming. And that’s not terrible for crypto, but it’s terrible for the economy. And it’s not good for the stock market.”

The crash of the UST stablecoin a few weeks ago sparked fear of stablecoins within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. However, Novogratz said even the crash of the leading stablecoin Tether wouldn’t be catastrophic to the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin is trading above the $21k mark after adding more than 4% to its value over the last seven days.

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Interview with Decred Project Lead Jake Yocom-Piatt

The CoinJournal podcast sat down with Jake Yocomm-Piatt, who formerly worked on Bitcoin before fleeing to co-found Decred, which is now a top 100 coin. 

Our discussion meandered through the topics of Bitcoin, self-sovereignty, and Central Bank issued digital currencies (CBDC’s), often taking a philosophical angle and hypothesising about what the future may hold. Personally, it was fun to examine the potential dystopian scenario of CBDCs being used for malevolent purposes, and how sovereignty over ones money is such a vital factor in today’s world. 

We also touched on how this bear market differs from previous cycles and the issues driving the macro climate, including diving deep on money printing. 

Of course, you can’t talk about crypto these days without mentioning some of the knock-on effects of the contagion triggered by the Luna and Celsius insolvencies, and how regulation could protect (or even harm) consumers going forward. 

Full interview is below – enjoy! 

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