Kategorie: Bitcoin News

• Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $104.5K, down 2% weekly, amid market uncertainty and Mideast tension fears.
• CryptoQuant warns BTC could revisit $92K or $81K if demand keeps falling.
• Glassnode sees “quiet” blockchain as network maturation, with institutions driving large-value transfers.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading steadily above the $104,500 mark as the Asian trading week gets into full swing.

Despite the ominous backdrop of a potential looming war in the Middle East, the leading cryptocurrency has remained relatively flat on the day with negligible price movement.

In fact, over the past full week, Bitcoin is down only a modest 2%, according to CoinDesk market data.

This apparent calm, however, is prompting a vigorous debate among market analysts: Is this a sign of underlying strength, or is something more precarious brewing beneath the surface?

Three new reports released this week from prominent crypto analytics firms CryptoQuant and Glassnode, along with trading firm Flowdesk, all paint a similar picture of current surface conditions: low volatility, tight price action, and subdued on-chain activity.

A notable shift in market dynamics is also evident, with retail participation reportedly waning while institutional players—ranging from Bitcoin ETF investors to large “whale” holders—are increasingly shaping the structure of market flows.

It is CryptoQuant, however, that is sounding the most urgent cautionary note.

In its June 19 report, the firm argued that Bitcoin could soon revisit the $92,000 support level, or potentially fall as low as $81,000, if current trends of deteriorating demand continue.

According to CryptoQuant, while spot demand for Bitcoin is still increasing, it is doing so at a rate well below its established trend. Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have reportedly dropped by more than 60% since April, and whale accumulation has halved during the same period.

Furthermore, short-term holders, who are typically newer market participants, have shed approximately 800,000 BTC since late May.

CryptoQuant’s demand momentum indicator, which tracks directional buying strength across key investor cohorts, is now reading a negative 2 million BTC – the lowest level ever recorded in the firm’s dataset.

Glassnode’s counterpoint: a maturing network, not weakness

Glassnode, while acknowledging similar on-chain signals, arrives at a far less dire conclusion.

In its weekly on-chain update, the firm concedes that the Bitcoin blockchain is currently “quiet,” meaning that transaction counts are down, network fees are minimal, and miner revenue is subdued.

However, Glassnode posits that this may not necessarily indicate weakness but could instead be a reflection of the network’s ongoing evolution.

They point out that on-chain settlement volume remains high but is increasingly concentrated in large-value transfers.

This suggests that the Bitcoin blockchain is progressively being utilized by institutions and whales for significant transactions, rather than for smaller, everyday retail activity.

Furthermore, Glassnode notes that the derivatives market now dwarfs on-chain activity, with futures and options volumes regularly exceeding spot market volumes by a factor of 7 to 16 times.

This shift, they argue, has brought with it more sophisticated hedging strategies, better collateral management practices, and an overall more mature, albeit less frenetic, market structure.

The rise of crypto treasury companies: a new financial engineering?

Adding another layer to the evolving market structure, a new report from Presto Research argues that Crypto Treasury Companies (CTCs)—such as Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (now Strategy) and Japan’s Metaplanet—are more than just leveraged Bitcoin ETFs.

Presto suggests they represent a new form of financial engineering that may carry less risk than many investors assume.

Strategy’s latest capital raise, which secured nearly $1 billion via perpetual preferred shares, demonstrates how Bitcoin’s inherent volatility can be leveraged to an issuer’s advantage.

These securities, along with convertible bonds and at-the-market equity sales, allow CTCs to fund aggressive crypto accumulation strategies without triggering the margin risks typically associated with leveraged positions.

Presto points out that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are unpledged, and Metaplanet’s bonds are unsecured.

This means that collateral liquidation—the primary trigger for past crypto industry blowups like Celsius and Three Arrows Capital—is largely absent in these structures.

While this doesn’t eliminate risk entirely, it fundamentally changes its nature.

The real challenge for CTCs, Presto argues, is not the crypto exposure itself but the discipline required to manage dilution, cash flow, and capital timing effectively.

Metaplanet’s “bitcoin yield” metric, which measures BTC per fully diluted share, reflects this crucial focus on delivering shareholder value.

As long as CTCs can adeptly manage the financial mechanics underpinning their accumulation strategies, Presto believes they will continue to earn Net Asset Value (NAV) premiums, similar to high-growth companies in traditional markets.

However, if they miscalculate, the very tools that fuel their ascent could just as easily accelerate their fall.

The post Bitcoin trades near $105K amid low volatility; analysts offer mixed outlooks appeared first on CoinJournal.

• Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $105K, stuck in a range due to Israel-Iran conflict uncertainty.
• BTC options show decisive flip to puts, signaling heightened investor anxiety and downside hedging.
• Despite near-term jitters, Bitcoin’s current cycle gain of 656% is impressive given its larger market cap.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around the $105,000 mark as the Asian trading week gets underway, caught in a holding pattern as market participants grapple with uncertainty over whether the Israel-Iran conflict will escalate into a broader regional war.

While near-term sentiment is dominated by geopolitical anxieties and signs of market “overheating,” longer-term perspectives and discussions around potential network upgrades offer a more nuanced picture for the leading cryptocurrency.

The current market stasis, with Bitcoin seemingly “stuck in this range,” is largely attributed to the precarious geopolitical situation, according to a recent note from trading firm QCP Capital.

In a Friday note published on Telegram, QCP highlighted that risk reversals have “flipped decisively.”

This means front-end BTC put options (which protect against price drops) are now commanding premiums of up to 5 volatility points over equivalent call options (which bet on price increases).

This is a clear indicator of heightened investor anxiety and an increased demand for hedging against potential downside risks.

Despite this defensive shift in options market positioning, QCP noted that Bitcoin has demonstrated notable resilience.

Even amid recent volatility, which saw over $1 billion in long positions liquidated across major crypto assets, on-chain data reportedly shows that institutional buying continues to provide meaningful support for prices.

Nevertheless, QCP emphasized that markets remain “stuck in a bind,” awaiting clarity on geopolitical outcomes, and warned that the digital asset complex will likely remain tightly linked to headline-driven sentiment shifts for the foreseeable future.

Adding to the near-term caution, a separate report from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant (as referenced in a related context, though not directly quoted in this specific source text) has suggested that certain metrics indicate the BTC market is “overheating.”

This includes surging demand approaching previous peaks and a slowing pace of accumulation by large “whale” holders.

These indicators suggest the recent rally, which pushed prices to a record near $112,000, might be nearing a short-term consolidation point, with $120,000 identified as a key resistance.

Long-term perspective: cycle gains and maturation

While recent volatility underscores short-term anxiety, data from Glassnode offers some reassurance for investors concerned about Bitcoin’s longer-term direction.

Bitcoin’s current cycle gain stands at an impressive 656%.

While this is lower than the returns seen in previous bull markets (1076% in 2015–2018 and 1007% in 2018–2022), it is arguably more notable given Bitcoin’s significantly larger market capitalization today.

This suggests that investor demand is still keeping pace reasonably well with BTC’s maturation as an asset class, even as near-term macroeconomic jitters dominate current market sentiment.

Beyond ‘spam’: the OP_Return debate and Bitcoin’s evolution

Shifting focus to network-level discussions, Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research, in a recent note, addressed the sometimes contentious debate around OP_Return (a Bitcoin protocol feature allowing small amounts of arbitrary data on the blockchain).

Thorn suggested that the furor over this feature was largely driven by a “loud but small group of critics” and that their reactions, characterized by “wild accusations of the ‘death of Bitcoin’,” were misplaced given the historically low levels of mempool congestion (the queue of unconfirmed transactions).

On-chain data indicates that the mempool is virtually empty compared to a year ago.

This counters the narrative prevalent in 2023 that a congested blockchain was suffocating Bitcoin, a notion that now appears significantly overstated.

Thorn further highlighted the irony of labeling arbitrary data as “spam,” reminding observers that Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, famously embedded arbitrary text—the “chancellor on brink of second bailout” headline—in the blockchain’s very first (genesis) block.

Instead of focusing on such debates, Thorn argued that the Bitcoin community’s attention would be better directed towards potential network upgrades like CheckTemplateVerify (CTV).

CTV is a proposed opcode that would enable more sophisticated and strict spending conditions, often referred to as “covenants.”

“We continue to believe [CTV] is a conservative but powerful opcode that would greatly enhance the ability to build better, safer methods of custody,” Thorn wrote.

He also noted that around 20% of Bitcoin’s hashrate has already signaled support for this upgrade.

Bitcoin upgrades are known to require extensive consensus-building within the community, a reflection of its open-source and decentralized ethos.

Thorn emphasized that this cautious, deliberate approach to evolution remains critical for ensuring Bitcoin’s broader adoption and scalability in the long run.

The post Bitcoin trades around $105K amid Middle East tensions: what’s next? appeared first on CoinJournal.

A sharp escalation in Middle East tensions sent shockwaves through global financial markets in the early Asian trading hours, triggering a significant spike in oil prices and prompting a flight to safety.

Bitcoin (BTC) was not immune to the turmoil, experiencing a notable price drop as traders scrambled for downside protection, evidenced by a dramatic crash in short-term options skew.

The seven-day skew for Bitcoin options, a key metric that measures the relative cost of bullish calls versus bearish puts listed on Deribit, plummeted to -3.84%.

This marked its lowest point since April 16, according to data from Amberdata.

In practical terms, this means put options, which offer traders protection against price declines, became the most expensive relative to call options in three months.

The surge in demand for these protective puts also dragged the 30-day and 60-day skews into negative territory, signaling a broader shift towards caution among market participants.

Traders typically purchase put options either to hedge existing long positions in the spot or futures markets or to directly profit from an anticipated fall in prices.

The clear preference for puts indicates a growing unease about Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory amidst the heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s price reflected this nervousness, falling to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $103,150, extending its 24-hour losses to 4.59%, according to CoinDesk data.

This decline represented a significant retreat from earlier in the week when prices had briefly topped the $110,000 mark.

Market bulls are now likely hoping that the 50-day SMA will provide a crucial support level, as a sustained break below it could attract further selling pressure, a pattern observed when this support level failed back in February.

Oil surges as geopolitical cauldron boils over

The catalyst for this market turbulence was a dramatic escalation in the Middle East.

The per-barrel price of WTI crude oil surged by over 6% to $74.30, reaching its highest level since February 3 and extending its weekly gain to an impressive 13%, according to data from TradingView.

This sharp upward movement in oil prices reportedly followed news of Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which supposedly drew retaliatory missile action from Tehran, though details remained fluid.

Inflationary shadows and Fed policy under scrutiny

Sudden and significant spikes in oil prices tend to have a global inflationary impact, and this latest surge is no exception.

Concerns are now mounting that this could inject fresh inflationary pressures into economies worldwide, at a time when President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war already threatens to disrupt economic stability and fuel inflation, particularly in net-importer countries.

This confluence of factors could significantly dent market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

If inflation re-accelerates, the Fed may be less inclined to ease monetary policy, potentially adding to downside volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies.

As of writing, futures tied to the S&P 500 were trading 1.5% lower on the day, reflecting the broader risk-off sentiment.

Traditional markets reel from geopolitical shock

The reaction in traditional markets was swift and pronounced. US stock index futures were down approximately 1.5% across the board following the news from the Middle East.

European market futures mirrored this decline, also trading down by roughly the same margin.

In a classic flight to safety, bond prices moved higher as investors sought refuge from the volatility.

Gold, another traditional safe-haven asset, also saw increased demand, adding about 0.75% in the past hour to trade at $3,428 per ounce.

Crude oil, as previously noted, had soared by an even more dramatic 9% to $74 per barrel in the immediate aftermath of the reports.

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped two basis points to 4.32%, indicating increased demand for US government debt.

Currency markets also reflected the shifting risk landscape, with the US dollar gaining against the euro and the British pound, but losing ground against traditional safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

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