Kategorie: Bitcoin News

• Bitcoin has surged to its highest level in over two months, above $119,000.
• The rally is a direct reaction to the US government shutting down operations.
• The shutdown is expected to create a “positive liquidity impulse” for markets.

The political paralysis in Washington has become the crypto market’s rocket fuel.

Bitcoin has surged to its highest level in over two months, blasting past the $119,000 mark as the US government officially shut down its operations, a dramatic development that traders are betting will ultimately unleash a wave of new liquidity into the financial system.

The leading cryptocurrency has jumped nearly 4 percent in the past 24 hours, with prices briefly touching $119,455 for the first time since mid-August.

The rally was broad-based, with other major tokens like Ether, XRP, and Solana all rising between 4 and 7 percent.

This is the market’s clear and unambiguous verdict on the chaos gripping the US capital.

A bet on a blind Fed, a wager on new money

The logic behind the rally is a bet on the second-order effects of the shutdown. With the government’s lights now off, the release of key economic data—most notably Friday’s all-important nonfarm payrolls report—will likely be delayed.

This data blackout will effectively blind the Federal Reserve, making it far more likely to proceed with its planned interest rate cuts.

“If ADP is a leading signal and the BLS print is delayed, the Fed is likely to deliver a 25 bp cut in October and pair it with guidance that keeps a second cut on the table by December,” said Matt Mena, a Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares.

This is the “positive liquidity impulse” that has the market so excited: an expansion of liquidity that makes it easier and cheaper to borrow money, a dynamic that encourages economic growth and, crucially, risk-taking in financial markets.

For some, this shutdown surge is more than just a temporary trade; it is a sign of a fundamental shift in the market’s DNA.

“The message is clear: with traditional data releases in flux and macro uncertainty running high, Bitcoin remains one of the few assets that thrives when the old playbook breaks down,” Mena noted.

“Investors should be watching this moment closely – it could mark the next explosive leg higher in crypto markets.”

The volatility trade: ‘options look cheap’

This expectation of an “explosive” move is now being actively priced into the derivatives market.

According to Greg Magadini, the Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, the long dry spell of low volatility may be about to end, and options are currently looking cheap.

“After a long ‘dry spell’ for BTC volatility, the US government shutdown could finally be the catalyst to make BTC move a lot,” Magadini told CoinDesk.

This, coupled with the steep contango in implied volatility term structure, makes options look cheap.

That “steep contango” means the market is expecting future volatility to be significantly higher than it is today, making near-term options a relative bargain.

Magadini highlighted the “long straddle”—a strategy that profits from a big price move in either direction—as a preferred way to play the impending volatility boom.

“These catalysts could either cause BTC to rally (as a dollar hedge) or crash (if risk assets panic),” he said, explaining why a bet on pure volatility, rather than direction, is so appealing at this uncertain juncture. The quiet days, it seems, are over.

The post Bitcoin surges as US government shutdown ignites the market appeared first on CoinJournal.

• Bitcoin is on track to close September with a rare positive gain of 4.5 percent.
• Historically, a green September has preceded an average Q4 rally of over 50 percent.
• If the pattern holds, Bitcoin could be eyeing the 170,000 dollar region by year-end.

In a powerful and rare defiance of its own grim history, Bitcoin is on the verge of closing the books on a positive September.

This is no small feat. The month has long been the cruelest on the crypto calendar, a consistent sea of red that has earned it the ominous nickname “Red September.”

But this year, a 4.5 percent gain has flipped the script, and in doing so, it may have just lit the fuse for an explosive rally into the final quarter of the year.

A prophecy written in the charts

History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. And in the world of Bitcoin, the rhyme of a green September is a powerful and bullish prophecy.

According to historical data, on the rare occasions that Bitcoin has managed to close September in positive territory—in 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024—the final quarter of the year has produced spectacular results, with average returns soaring to more than 53 percent.

In those instances, the fourth quarter returns have ranged from a powerful 45 percent to a stunning 66 percent.

If that historical pattern were to play out again this year, Bitcoin could be eyeing the 170,000 dollar region before the calendar flips to 2026.

The data shows that October typically acts as the launchpad for these powerful moves, with an average gain of 21.8 percent, while November continues the ascent.

This seasonal effect has been particularly profitable in the years following a Bitcoin halving, as a potent cocktail of capital inflows and bullish market positioning combine to push the asset into a fresh phase of price discovery.

The view from the blockchain: a bullish tide is turning

This bullish seasonal setup is not just a statistical anomaly; it is being actively confirmed by the deep undercurrents of the blockchain itself.

Key on-chain metrics are now flashing green, signaling a fundamental and powerful shift in market momentum.

The Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), a crucial indicator that tracks the difference between market buy and market sell volumes, has flipped positive on a 90-day basis for the first time since mid-July.

This is a clear and direct signal that a “Taker Buy Dominant Phase” is underway, a period where buying pressure is now decisively outweighing selling activity.

At the same time, the Coinbase premium index has been highlighting consistent and aggressive accumulation by US investors throughout the third quarter.

The powerful alignment of these two key on-chain metrics reinforces the view that a new wave of buying momentum is not just coming—it’s already here.

The stage is set, the signals are aligning, and the final quarter of the year could once again prove to be a decisive and explosive one for the world’s leading digital asset.

The post Bitcoin’s rare September gains defy history: Data predicts a 50% Q4 rally to 170,000 dollars appeared first on CoinJournal.