Bitcoin price prediction: How low can it drop?

Bitcoin price continued consolidating in Monday as a somber mood engulfed the cryptocurrency industry. The coin was trading at $16,760, which was slightly above last week’s low of $15,528. It has plunged by over 22% from its highest level this month, making November a nightmare for the coin.

Somber mood engulfs the crypto industry

Bitcoin price remained under intense pressure on Monday as concerns about the crypto industry continue. Recently, the most important crypto news was the collapse of FTX, the second-biggest exchange in the industry after Binance. 

As a result, many cryptocurrency investors have decided to completely exit the industry altogether. Besides, other well-known and reputable companies like Voyager Digital and Celius have gone bankrupt as well. As such, with FTX gone, there are concerns about which company will be next. 

Recent data shows that investor have pulled their cryptocurrencies from crypto exchanges like Binance and OKX. Also, Tether’s outflows have risen sharply in the past few days.

Still, there is a silver lining for Bitcoin prices and other cryptocurrencies. In the evolution of all industries, such busts are common. For example, in the early 1900s, tens of banks were going under every year. That ended after the establishment of the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, the same thing happened the early 2000s when everyone was investing in dot com companies. That ended tragically after the dot com bubble burst, costing investors billions of dollars. Since then, companies like Google, Cisco, and Amazon have thrived.

Therefore, a silver lining in FTX’s crash is that regulators will move into the sector and set guardrails to protect investors. While more companies are likely to go bankrupt, it is a necessary process for weeding out bad apples.

Bitcoin price forecast

Is it safe to buy Bitcoin now? At this moment, the situation is relatively fluid and I suspect that there will be more negative headlines. The coin has crashed below the important resistance level at $18,156, which was the lowest level on October 13.

Bitcoin has also moved below all moving averages. It also formed a dead cat bounce and a dead cat bounce last Friday. These patterns are usually signs of a continuation. Therefore, the coin will likely continue falling in the near term as sellers attempt to move below the support at $15,000. It will get worse before it gets better.

How to buy Bitcoin

eToro

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Skilling

Skilling is a Scandinavian based cryptocurrency broker which has a desktop website as well as apps for iOS and Android devices. It supports over 50 cryptocurrencies and it has a demo account to allow users to gain familiarity with the platform. Skilling has no hidden fees, it is an officially regulated broker and it supports a wide range of payment methods.

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4% of Brits think crypto is a “woke” thing Gen Z loves

One of the greatest barriers to entry for cryptocurrency is undoubtedly comprehending it. 

Blockchain technology is difficult to get one’s head around. It has only been around since 2009, so it can also be difficult sometimes to find good resources on where to learn about it. Not only that, but the repeated collapses – the FTX implosion being the latest – put people off looking into it. 

Education is paramount. This is the single biggest thing I noticed when I visited El Salvador this summer, where Bitcoin is legal tender. So many people I talked with had difficulty truly understanding it.

I was told by a Wallmart cashier that I could not pay with Bitcoin because I did not have the government-owned Chivo wallet. This is obviously false, as Bitcoin’s lightning network does not discriminate – you just need a QR code and the Bitcoin will go. It is a decentralised network and there is no such thing as certain wallets not being able to send to other wallets.

One barman also said that he tried to learn about it but gave up after a week because he “didn’t have a computer brain”.

It’s no different outside of El Salvador. I wrote recently about how 48% of Brits know almost nothing about crypto.  This is the same for countries all around the world. But since I have just moved to London, let’s dig into the British for the time being.

Top Misconceptions

 Looking at a study by VoucherCodes.co.uk, they presented the below as some of the biggest misconceptions in the UK, which I have put together a chart for:

 

 I think the chart says it all.

While the top two are hugely understandable, the others show that there is still a massive chunk of the British population that just do not understand crypto. That is perfectly fine. In fact, it’s a good thing – it shows how much further the industry could grow.

But the first step to adoption is education. I actually think this is what they got wrong in El Salvador. Announcing Bitcoin as legal tender spontaneously – from a Bitcoin conference in Miami – without prior warning or discussion with the people is not the way to go.

The UK, of course, won’t be announcing Bitcoin as legal tender anytime soon (although with the way the pound has been going recently, don’t rule anything out!).

But the barriers are still here. And for the 2%: no, Elon Musk didn’t make cryptocurrency up. Unless they think he is Satoshi Nakamoto? I guess it can’t be ruled out.

Sources

VoucherCodes.co.uk

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Bitcoin maintains its price above $16k but could dip lower soon

Bitcoin has lost more than 20% of its value over the last seven days and could record further losses this week.

The cryptocurrency market has recorded perhaps its worst week so far this week. Bitcoin and the other leading cryptocurrencies have been underperforming over the past few days.

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, has lost more than 20% of its value over the last seven days. It was trading above $20k per coin a week ago but is now trading around $16,500 per week.

The bearish performance comes following the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. FTX was one of the top five crypto exchanges in the world, and its collapse has thrown the crypto market into a deep bearish trend.

The crypto exchange filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy last week following its collapse. The total cryptocurrency market currently stands at around $831 billion, having lost more than $150 billion over the past few days. 

With Bitcoin holding its ground above $16k, the leading cryptocurrency could record further losses over the coming days.

Key levels to watch

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is extremely bearish, as Bitcoin has been underperforming over the past few days. Bitcoin’s technical indicators show that the bears are currently in control. 

BTC/USD Chart By TradingView

The MACD line is deep within the negative territory, indicating that the bulls might not regain control for a while. The 14-day relative strength index of 35 shows that Bitcoin could enter the oversold region if the bearish trend continues.

At press time, BTC is trading at $16,620 per coin, down by more than 1% in the last 24 hours. With the bears still in control, BTC could dip below the $16,004 support level in the near term.

In the event of an extended bearish run, Bitcoin could trade around the $15,669 level for the second time in a week. 

Where to buy Bitcoin now

eToro

eToro is a global social investment brokerage company which offers over 75 cryptocurrencies to invest in. It offers crypto trading commission-free and users on the platform have the option to manually invest or socially invest. eToro even has a unique CopyTrader system which allows users to automatically copy the trades of popular investors.

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Skilling

Skilling is a Scandinavian based cryptocurrency broker which has a desktop website as well as apps for iOS and Android devices. It supports over 50 cryptocurrencies and it has a demo account to allow users to gain familiarity with the platform. Skilling has no hidden fees, it is an officially regulated broker and it supports a wide range of payment methods.

Buy BTC with Skilling today

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FTX insolvent – what next for crypto?

I published an analysis three weeks ago outlining that I feared Bitcoin was one bad news event from a plunge down towards $15,000.

And hell, did we get that event.

Now I didn’t quite predict this. My piece made no reference to anything to do with FTX. Not only that, but I have waxed lyrical in the past about Bankman-Fried’s acumen. I misread his character massively, and I was very wrong.

In an examination of FTX’s solvency published on Monday morning, I still believed it was highly unlikely that FTX were insolvent. 

I have also gone on record many a time repeating the same old adage: playing with Bitcoin in the short-term is akin to spinning a roulette wheel.

But as we hung around $20,000, and headed into a winter awash with ominous variables like an energy crisis, high inflation, a nasty geopolitical climate and political upheaval in the US, UK and in many nations across Europe, risk was extremely high.

And then an extraneous variable – FTX imploding. And in the words of the wonderful Black Eyed Peas, “it’s going down now and not a tad bit later”.

Is it time to buy the dip?

I don’t like this question for two reasons.

The first is that, being a random boy on the Internet, how am I meant to know? Like I said a few sentences ago, betting short-term on Bitcoin is like spinning a roulette wheel. My opinion on whether I fancy red or black would be just as valid as to what I think about Bitcoin’s short-term action will be.

The second reason is that this question is almost a muscle-memory reaction to crypto prices falling. Born out of the culture in the space, I suppose. Central to it is people pointing to past cycles and referencing how Bitcoin has always returned. But they fail to realise something.

Bitcoin was launched in January 2009, into one of the longest and most explosive bull runs in history. As of this year, that is no longer the case. The free money has been turned off – then Federal Reserve raising interest rates at historically fast rates, with inflation at levels not seen since the 70’s.

This is the first time that Bitcoin has ever experienced a wider economy bear market. And for that reason, all bets are off. And it is now trading at levels lower than it was five years ago in December 2017.  

 

There is no such thing as buying dips and laughing your way to the bank. A glance at the above chart will show quite how many dips there have been this year. This thing is hard. Trading is hard. Crypto is a volatile game. For every screenshot of 100X gains you see on Twitter, there are 100 more people who lost it all. 

Don’t take eyes off wider economy

FTX imploding is wild. And it’s incredibly bearish for the crypto economy at large. Expect some contagion to ripple out of this, as we don’t know yet who was exposed to who – but FTX, as such a large player in the industry, will no doubt drag a few bodies down with them.

But don’t take your eyes off the bigger trend. Crypto is following the stock market. Blue chip assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are the tail on the dog, with the dog being the stock market. And that stock market is oscillating back and forth over inflation readings and the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates.

I wrote last month about how this correlation between stocks and Bitcoin is as high as it has ever been. It picked up markedly in April 2022, right as we transitioned to this high-interest rate environment.

In the short-term, this FTX episode needs to play out. Contagion will ripple, news will break, surprises will come out. And then after that, it’s back to watching the stock market. If it wasn’t clear already – the crypto markets are merciless. Don’t forget that, and stay safe.

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Bitcoin drops below June lows as FTX stuns crypto world

Bitcoin price fell more than 12% to touch lows of $17,114 on crypto exchange Coinbase.

Bitcoin declined more than 12% on Tuesday as a stunned crypto world descended into sell-off territory on news that Binance, led by Changpeng Zhao, had signed a letter of intent (LOI) for the acquisition of crypto exchange FTX.

Bitcoin sell-off pushes BTC below June 2022 lows

After an initial upward spike for the crypto market amid a positive take, Bitcoin nosedived to lows of $17,114 on crypto exchange Coinbase. 

The downside marks Bitcoin’s fall to its lowest price level since the crypto bloodbath in June, when the aftermath of the crash of Luna and Three Arrows Capital bankruptcy coincided with Bitcoin printing a low of $17,592.

BTC/USD price on Coinbase. Source: TradingView

 

With the sell-off crashing the FTX (FTT) token as much as 85% within hours on Tuesday – from highs of $22 to lows of $4.60 – other markets followed suit as uncertainty and fear reigned supreme.

Ethereum had fallen below $1,300 and Solana was getting smoked near $23.80 at the time of writing.

Coinbase and Kraken report connectivity issues

Meanwhile, leading crypto exchanges Kraken and Coinbase reported connectivity issues that only fueled the negative sentiment. 

Kraken announced an investigation into reports that certain users were having connectivity issues on its website as well as via mobile.

Coinbase also reported connectivity issues affecting its Coinbase.com, Coinbase Pro and Coinbase Prime platforms. An update the US-based crypto exchange posted an hour later noted improvement in network latency, but users were reportedly still having difficulty accessing the exchange’s various platforms.

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