Kategorie: Bitcoin News

• Bitcoin could undergo another Capitulation event around Christmas – Cowen

• The cryptocurrency is consolidating but lacks an upside momentum

• BTC price could break into upside or downside

When will Bitcoin price (BTC/USD) bottom-up after slipping below the crucial $19,000 level? Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen believes Bitcoin has to undergo one capitulation event before a price reversal. Cowen examines the historical patterns to explain when this is likely to occur.

Cowen points out that the final capitulation event will occur around Christmas this year. A capitulation event occurs when a sizable portion of investors succumb to bear pressure and sell their holdings. Capitulation events are characterised by unusually high trading volumes coinciding with sharp price falls. When the price reaches its lowest point, it signals a market bottom that ushers in a bullish move.

Relating to the historical patterns, Cowen says that Bitcoin bear markets last around a year. In 2014, he says, the bear markets lasted 14 months, while in 2018, it was 12 months. Thus, if the current one is to reflect historical patterns, the dates around December 25th, 26th, and 27th, could be.

Bitcoin has been very choppy heading to this important prediction at year-end. Cowen thinks that $15,000 is the balanced price for Bitcoin. The analyst says that the cryptocurrency has to fall below this level to hit bottom. That will prompt attempts to recapture the fair value.

BTC outlook as price consolidates at $16,000

BTC/USD Chart by TradingView

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is choppy and consolidates around $16,000. The MACD indicator is in the bearish zone. The RSI remains below the midpoint, indicating that the sellers are in control.

What next for BTC?

Bitcoin lacks a directional bias. Although bulls have continually defended $16,000 successfully, they are unable to take the price higher. That’s despite the recent Fed statement indicating slower rate increases.

With the current choppy trading pattern, Bitcoin can go either way. Just as Cowen predicted, BTC could claim a new bottom. For that to happen, the price must break below the $16,000 support zone.

Where to buy BTC

eToro

eToro is a global social investment brokerage company which offers over 75 cryptocurrencies to invest in. It offers crypto trading commission-free and users on the platform have the option to manually invest or socially invest. eToro even has a unique CopyTrader system which allows users to automatically copy the trades of popular investors.

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OKX

OKX is a top cryptocurrency exchange which offers over 140 cryptocurrencies to invest in. OKX takes customer security very seriously, they store almost all of their clients‘ funds in cold storage, and the exchange is yet to be hacked. On top of this, the exchange offers very low fees and customers can even use their crypto as collateral for loans on the platform.

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The post What crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen thinks of BTC before a reversal occurs appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key Takeaways

• Cathie Wood says that institutions may take step back from crypto
• She believes that they will allocate more to Bitcoin and Ether once they take time to study the crypto space
• I believe she may be too optimistic, that the crypto industry has taken a battering and it may take longer to recover from

 

Crypto is in a bad place right now.

The most concerning development coming out of the last few weeks – and I think you will agree, there have been a few – is perhaps what it all means for the reputation of the industry going forward.

What institutions are going to put Bitcoin on their balance sheet now? What pension funds are going to move into digital assets? FTX’s implosion (which I wrote about in detail here) is so high-profile and jarring that it feels delusional to expect anyone connected to traditional finance moving into the space. Is the damage irreparable?

Cathie Wood hints at institutional stepback

On this note, I thought Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood’s interview with Bloomberg last week was telling. Long known for her ultra-bullish views on all things Bitcoin, she even reiterated in the interview her confidence in her price prediction of Bitcoin, which she believes will be worth $1 million per coin by 2030.

This was not a surprise, nor was it wholly unpredictable. Wood is adamant that Bitcoin will change the macro landscape long-term. She has positioned highly aggressively in the market, betting on risky tech stocks, Bitcoin and other assets that have struggled amid the transition to a new interest rate paradigm – as the performance of her flagship ETF shows below:

I felt that something else was notable in her interview, however. “I do think, though, that the one thing that will be delayed is perhaps institutions stepping back and just saying, ‘OK do we really understand this?’”, she said.

This hints at the big danger here. All through the pandemic, one of the most bullish things for Bitcoin was the trend of institutions pouring into the space. There was Tesla. There was ETF chat. There was Grayscale. There were public mining companies. There was Coinbase floating on the stock exchange. Hell, there was even El Salvador declaring Bitcoin as legal tender.

But now that the low-interest environment has come to a close, and liquidity is getting sucked out of the economy, Bitcoin and crypto are facing something they have never had to face before – a pullback in the wider economy.

Let us not forget that Bitcoin was launched in 2009, into the greatest bull market in history. It has not yet been tested amid a bearish macro climate, and hence this is all unprecedented. And against this test, crypto is straining.

BlockFi, Celsius, Voyager, Three Arrows Capital, and all the other bankrupt firms, which are now joined by FTX, have also painted crypto in such a bad light that it is not surprising to hear analysts warn of pullbacks in institutional adoption. Wouldn’t it be more of a surprise if there wasn’t?

Optimism

I should note that Wood did add that she thought Bitcoin is coming out “smelling like a rose” from all this. While I certainly wouldn’t go that far – the entire industry is getting its reputation pummelled if you ask me – I see where she is coming from.  

But while Bitcoin may have no counterparty risk, and hence theoretically is immune to the sorts of implosions we have seen at centralised companies like FTX, this is the real world. And in the real world,  in order for the average citizen to access it – not to mention institutions – centralised companies are needed.

And until the greed, reckless leverage, naïve risk management and outright fraud (not naming names) in the industry ceases to exist, Bitcoin won’t gain any significant traction in the mainstream financial space. Institutions will be a lot warier of investing in the space now after so many high-profile blow-ups. Regulation is coming in strong. Returns are no longer through the roof.

This is why I disagree with the optimistic tone that Wood set later in the interview:

“And once (institutions) actually do the homework and see what has happened here”, Wood said, “I think they will be more comfortable moving into Bitcoin and perhaps Ether as a first stop, because they will understand it more”.

For me, understanding Bitcoin more also comes with the comprehension that it continues to trade as an extremely high-risk asset, in what is now no longer a zero-rate environment. While the long-term vision may be for Bitcoin to be a reputable inflation hedge, that is not where it is right now – something asset managers will realise.

Crypto has also put a sour taste in the mouth of anyone who has touched it this year. FTX is just the latest embarrassment for the industry, as the world watches on with a mixture of smugness, pity and disgust. Against this backdrop, the reputation of the entire space has taken a hammering.

And as interest rates rise, a cost of living crisis surges and data continues to point towards a struggling economy, the crypto party will take a little longer to resume than Cathie thinks.  

The post Even Cathie Wood admits institutional adoption of crypto will fall off appeared first on CoinJournal.

• Binance’s proof of reserves system initially shows results for the flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin.
• The crypto exchange will add other tokens and networks as well as implement ZK-SNARKs.
• Crypto exchanges are looking to show they have the assets they should hold after the shocking collapse of FTX.

Binance has published its proof-of-reserve (PoR) system, days after CEO Changpeng Zhao pledged to have the mechanism in place following the collapse of rival FTX.

The bankruptcy and the contagion that followed crashed the market, with Binance Coin price dropping to lows of $250. Bitcoin price also fell below $16,000, hitting its lowest level since 2020.

In response, multiple exchanges had released a snapshot of their asset reserves. But the crypto community largely noted the snapshot of assets alone wasn’t enough – there was a need to have exchanges’ liabilities also available.

Binance’s proof of reserves showed a 101% ratio

In its update on the issue, Binance has noted its users are now able to verify the exchanges holdings. As for what’s possible now, Binance announced the mechanism will initially support Bitcoin. The exchange will look to add other tokens and networks over the next few weeks.

Binance will also allow for the auditing of its proof of reserves results by third-party auditors and implement ZK-SNARKs to help bolster privacy and robustness.

“Because Binance offers Margin and Loans services, the audit results will show the Net Balance, Equity and Debt of each user, where the Net Balance = Equity – Debt,” the Binance team wrote.

A snapshot taken on 22 November 2022 at 23:59 (UTC) shows Binance’s on-chain Bitcoin balances stood at 582,485.9302, while customer net balance was 575,742.4228. The reserve ratio from the snapshot was 101%, with the margin at 6,743 BTC.

Binance customers can verify whether the exchange holds their crypto as it should.

The post Binance releases its proof of reserves system appeared first on CoinJournal.

• Bitcoin has been steady after FOMC statement

• The cryptocurrency remains tied to wider crypto concerns

• BTC needs to overcome $16,500 to become bullish

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rose slightly on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve statement. The cryptocurrency was held to the $16,500 level after a soft stance by the officials. BTC was already gaining ahead of the remarks as investors were optimistic that the Fed would cool down on rate hikes.

Friday’s Fed statement just confirmed what the market expected. Officials indicated that they would slow down the pace of interest rate increases. Fed cited the uncertain lags associated with the monetary actions on inflation and economic health. The monetary committee settled on the fourth 75 basis points hike regardless. Although this didn’t signal that the interest rates would remain low, it gave markets a softer landing. 

Despite the somewhat positive signal from the Fed, the price of Bitcoin should be viewed within the wider risks contagion. In particular, the confidence crisis created by the collapsed FTX exchange could linger longer. Combined with a potential recession, we could wait a bit longer to see a sustained surge. The slow pace of gains recorded by cryptocurrencies after a dovish statement confirms a lacklustre market. To a technical reader, Bitcoin is not yet bullish.

Bitcoin struggles to rise above $16,500

BTC/USD Chart by TradingView

On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price has slightly increased since finding support at $15,700. However, buyers are facing challenges taking the cryptocurrency above the $16,500 level. 

Although the RSI has slightly improved from the near-oversold level, the reading is still below the midpoint. 

What next for Bitcoin?

A mixed trading outlook suggests that the BTC price could go higher or lower. There is no confirmed bullish reversal unless the cryptocurrency clears the $16,500 level. That would allow bulls to ride a bullish surge to the $19,000 resistance.

If bear pressure escalates, a price below $15,700 is still on the cards. That would pit Bitcoin at a potential price of $14,000 and $11,000. 

In the words of Bitcoin enthusiast Michael Saylor, if you buy BTC in a timeframe of fewer than four years, you are “just speculating it.” Longer-term buyers would still find BTC attractive, not necessarily for four years, but up to the next bull run.

Where to buy BTC

eToro

eToro is a global social investment brokerage company which offers over 75 cryptocurrencies to invest in. It offers crypto trading commission-free and users on the platform have the option to manually invest or socially invest. eToro even has a unique CopyTrader system which allows users to automatically copy the trades of popular investors.

Buy BTC with eToro today Disclaimer

OKX

OKX is a top cryptocurrency exchange which offers over 140 cryptocurrencies to invest in. OKX takes customer security very seriously, they store almost all of their clients‘ funds in cold storage, and the exchange is yet to be hacked. On top of this, the exchange offers very low fees and customers can even use their crypto as collateral for loans on the platform.

Buy BTC with OKX today Disclaimer

The post Bitcoin rebounds slightly after the FOMC but is the cryptocurrency bullish? appeared first on CoinJournal.

Bitcoin price has come under intense pressure in the past few months as investors get extremely fearful about the industry. BTC plunged to a low of $15,718, which is significantly lower than its all-time high of near $70,000. It has fallen by over 26% from its highest level this month, crashing its total market cap to about $302 billion.

Will BTC go back up?

Bitcoin price has been in a deep sell-off as a somber mood has engulfed the crypto industry. The two main reasons for the crash are the collapse of FTX and the rising interest rates in the United States. 

The Fed has embraced an extremely hawkish tone in the past few months in its bid to fight soaring inflation. Precisely, it has increased rates by 400 basis points and analysts expect that it will continue hiking for a while.

High interest rates are usually dangerous for risky assets like cryptocurrencies and growth stocks. This also explains why many growth companies like Carvana, Tesla, and Wayfair have seen their shares collapse in the past few months.

Meanwhile, the recent collapse of FTX and Alameda has led to significant contagion risks in the crypto industry. The two companies were significant players in the crypto industry, with FTX being the second-biggest crypto exchange in the world by valuation.

Alameda, on the other hand, was one of the biggest liquidity providers in the industry. As a result, its collapse has had a major impact in the industry. Many people have then decided to completely or temporarily move from the crypto industry.

Bitcoin price sell-off capitulation will likely not happen any time soon. For it to happen, interest rates will likely start moving lower or the Fed will need to signal that it will start slashing. Also, there needs to be clarity on crypto regulations. 

Bitcoin price forecast

            Bitcoin chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the BTC price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months. This sell-off accelerated after the coin moved below the important support level at $18,048, which was the lowest point this year. It was also slightly below the highest point in 2017. 

Bitcoin remains significantly below all moving averages while oscillators have moved to the oversold level. Therefore, I suspect that the coin will continue falling in the near term. If this happens, the next key psychological level to watch will be at $10,000.

How to buy Bitcoin

eToro

eToro is a global social investment brokerage company which offers over 75 cryptocurrencies to invest in. It offers crypto trading commission-free and users on the platform have the option to manually invest or socially invest. eToro even has a unique CopyTrader system which allows users to automatically copy the trades of popular investors.

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Skilling

Skilling is a Scandinavian based cryptocurrency broker which has a desktop website as well as apps for iOS and Android devices. It supports over 50 cryptocurrencies and it has a demo account to allow users to gain familiarity with the platform. Skilling has no hidden fees, it is an officially regulated broker and it supports a wide range of payment methods.

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The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC go back up soon? appeared first on CoinJournal.