Bitcoin could hit $500,000 in the next decade, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor says

Bitcoin is down by more than 60% from its recent all-time high, but Michael Saylor believes that it will recover its price in the next four years.

Michael Saylor, the co-founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy, has revealed that he expects bitcoin to return to its November high of nearly $69,000 within the next four years.

His prediction comes despite Bitcoin performing poorly since the start of the year. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $69k in November 2021 but is now trading below $20k per coin.

Saylor said the current price means that Bitcoin has reached its bottom and could only rally higher from here. He said

“It has touched that a few times. I think this is stable.”

The leading cryptocurrency has been trading around the $19k mark since the start of the week. Saylor further predicted that Bitcoin could reach $500k in the next decade.

According to the MicroStrategy chairman, Bitcoin said he expects Bitcoin’s market cap to reach that of gold. He considers Bitcoin to be a hedge against inflation, and its market cap will increase over the next few years. Saylor said;

“The next logical step for bitcoin is to replace gold as a non-sovereign store of value asset.”

Saylor’s comments come a few days after MicroStrategy bought an extra 301 bitcoins. The company bought the coins for $6 million, at an average price of over $19k per coin.

Following this latest development, MicroStrategy holds 130,000 bitcoins, making it one of the largest institutional Bitcoin holders in the world.

The company has spent more than $3 billion on Bitcoin acquisition over the past few years and might continue to add to its stash. 

MicroStrategy revealed earlier this year that it is building out the Lightning Network, a payment protocol using the bitcoin blockchain. 

According to the data obtained from MarketWatch, Saylor personally holds about 17,732 bitcoins, which he bought at an average price of about $9,500. 

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Bitcoin attempts recovery after rate hike scare. Should you buy it?

  • Bitcoin recovered 1.58% on Thursday after the rate-hike drop

  • Bitcoin remains vulnerable as long as macro-issues do not abate

  • $19,250 is a level to watch on Bitcoin as it recovers

Bitcoin BTC/USD is one of the highly watched cryptocurrencies during interest rate decisions. That’s because the cryptocurrency has exhibited correlations with equities. Thus, when interest decisions come up, equities and Bitcoin become focal points. 

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a 75-basis point interest rate hike. The market had anticipated a similar hike in magnitude. Bitcoin fell below $19,000 immediately after the rate decision but recovered quickly. As of press time, the cryptocurrency was trading at $19,166 after adding more than 1.50% in 24 hours. The swift recovery indicates that markets had priced for a 75 basis point hike. Does that suggest Bitcoin will continue rising?

Looking ahead, the US central bank will hike rates further to end the year at around 4.4%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not rule out the possibility of a recession. The gloomy macro-outlook makes risky assets, including Bitcoin, unattractive. 

Bitcoin is recovering but faces resistance at $19,250

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Source – TradingView

Applying the MACD indicator, Bitcoin’s momentum weakened after the Fed rate hike. The MACD line entered deeper into the bear zone as the price lost an important $19,250 support. At the current level, BTC trades at or slightly below the support, having hit the lowest since June. The level is also below its average for the past 50 days.

From the technical outlook, BTC has to successfully reclaim the $19,250 level to consider a potential upside. The cryptocurrency is not a recommended buy at the moment, especially in the short term.

Summary

Bitcoin could slip further if it fails to reclaim the $19,250 level. The macro factors and technical outlook sound bearish despite the latest recoveries. A recovery above the $19,250 invalidates a bearish view.

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MicroStrategy buys extra 301 bitcoins for $6 million

MicroStrategy continues to solidify its position as one of the leading institutions in the crypto space after purchasing over 300 bitcoins earlier today.

Software firm MicroStrategy announced on Tuesday, September 20th, that it has bought 301 bitcoins.

The company made this move as the leading cryptocurrency has been underperforming in recent weeks. Bitcoin has dropped below the $20k mark in the last few days, and MicroStrategy has taken advantage of this to increase its position in the market.

MicroStrategy’s chairman, Michael Saylor, announced this latest development via Twitter an hour ago. According to Saylor, MicroStrategy bought the 301 bitcoins for $6 million, at an average price of $19,851 per Bitcoin. 

Following this latest development, MicroStrategy now holds 130,000 bitcoins. The company said it acquired the 130,000 bitcoins for $3.98 billion, at an average of $30,639 per Bitcoin.

By owning 130,000 bitcoins, MicroStrategy now holds 0.62% of all the Bitcoin that would ever be mined. 

According to the Securities and Exchange Commission filing, MicroStrategy bought the bitcoins with excess cash.

Michael Saylor recently stepped down as CEO of the company after years at the helm. By assuming the role of executive chairman, Saylor wanted to focus on buying more bitcoins. 

Saylor has also come under pressure in recent weeks, with the United States government taking aim at the billionaire in a tax evasion lawsuit. 

The former MicroStrategy CEO has made his admiration for Bitcoin public on numerous occasions. As a result, he purchased thousands of bitcoins for the software development company. 

Bitcoin has been underperforming in recent weeks. The leading cryptocurrency went past the $19k mark earlier today but is now trading around $18,800 per coin.

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $69k in November 2021. However, it has lost more than 60% of its value since then and is now trading below $20k per coin.

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Should I buy Bitcoin now?

Bitcoin price has had a tough performance in 2022 as concerns about high interest rates converge with heightened geopolitical, inflation, and drought risks. After soaring to an all-time high of near $70,000 in 2021, Bitcoin slipped to a low of $17,470 this year. As a result, the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies dropped from over $3 trillion to less than $1 trillion.

Federal Reserve risks

Bitcoin price has crashed hard this year simply because of the Federal Reserve. After being wrong on inflation in 2021, the Fed embarked on its most aggressive policy on record. It decided to start a quantitative tightening policy in a bid to reduce the amount of money in circulation.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve decided to hike interest rates. In the first eight months of the year, the bank hiked interest rates by 225 basis points. And in recent statements, officials warned that more rate hikes were necessary until signs of sustained inflation drop were seen.

Historically, Bitcoin price tends to underperform in a period when the Fed is extremely hawkish. The same is true for other types of assets like stocks. Indeed, most American indices like Dow Jones and S&P 500 have dropped by over 10% this year.

Bitcoin price also dropped because of falling interest among retail traders. This is evidenced by the overall weak financial results and falling volume by leading companies like Coinbase, OKX, and Binance.

As you recall, 2021 was a great year for American retail traders who had accumulated large savings as they worked from home. At the same time, the Federal government provided trillions in stimulus, including stimulus checks. Most of these funds went to cryptocurrencies. 

As a result, on-chain data shows that the volume of Bitcoin transactions has been in a strong downward trend lately. 

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Bitcoin price prediction

The weekly chart is a good place to start when determining whether Bitcoin is a good investment now. As shown below. The chart reveals that BTC price formed a double-top pattern at around 64,000. The neckline of this pattern was at 28,397. In price action analysis, a double-top pattern is usually a bearish sign.

At the same time, the coin has moved below the 25-week and 50-week moving averages. Therefore, I suspect that Bitcoin will continue falling as sellers target the next reference level at $12,364. As such, I would not recommend buying Bitcoin at this moment. Besides, the Fed is still committed to continuing its aggressive policy.

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Pro on crypto winter: Bitcoin bottom will occur in Q4

  • Bitcoin price is around $18,650 after falling to lows of $18,255 on Monday following another sell-off bout amid a prolonged crypto winter.
  • Analyst Rekt Capital says ‘typical market bottoms’ are often months in the making.
  • He expects BTC price bottom in Q4 this year.

Bitcoin has slumped below the $20,000 and seen a more than 7% dump take prices to lows around $18,255 early Monday.

The decline follows a broader weakness across risk-on assets as the broader market anticipates a massive interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve and equally higher raise from the Bank of England later this week.

If stocks fall further, Bitcoin (which has shown high correlation to movements in equities) will also likely trade lower.

Analyst on Bitcoin price outlook

According to pseudonymous crypto analyst Rekt Capital, it’s likely Bitcoin will continue to struggle with bearish pressure over coming weeks. He tweeted

Typical BTC Bear Market bottoms tend to take months to develop before a new macro uptrend begins. BTC has been meandering at current prices for only a few weeks – history suggests it is too premature to expect a full-blown macro trend reversal so soon.”

On when he expects a Bitcoin bottom, Rekt says it’s likely later in Q4 this year. The analyst bases his perspective on the historical price movement in relation to Bitcoin halving – a four year cycle event that sees new BTC creation (or mining rewards per block) cut in half as the total number of mineable BTC shrinks.

The last halving in 2020 saw miner rewards reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, and this will further fall to 3.125 at the next halving set for 2024.

 “In 2015, BTC bottomed 547 days before the Halving. In 2018, BTC bottomed 517 days before the Halving (discount March 2020 crash). If Bitcoin is going to bottom 517-547 days before the upcoming April 2024 Halving…then the bottom will occur in Q4 this year,” Rekt wrote.

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