Kategorie: Bitcoin News

Key Takeaways

• The balance of Bitcoins on exchanges is in constant decline, now at the lowest point since December 2017 
• Meanwhile, long-term investors continue to hold, soaking up the supply
• Coins that have not been touched in 10 years now outnumber those held on exchanges 

I wrote a piece last week on the exodus of stablecoins from exchanges, with the balance currently the lowest since October 2021, with 45% of the total balance of stablecoins on exchanges flowing out in the last four months. 

But the glut in liquidity is not limited to stablecoins. The world’s biggest cryptocurrency is also seeing funds flow out. Only 11.8% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently on exchanges – that is the lowest since December 2017. 

To jot your memory, December 2017 was the previous bull market peak. Bitcoin rose to within a hair of $20,000 before freefalling into a two-year-long bear market which ravaged the entire industry.

Since January 2020, exchanges’ reserves of Bitcoin have been only going one way: down. It hints at the demand/supply imbalance that so many Bitcoin truthers advocate for, with the much-vaunted hard supply cap of 21 million coins for Bitcoin. 

If demand keeps rising, they argue, the price can only go up because supply cannot keep up. 

Central to this thesis is the resilience of long-term holders to keep a firm grasp on their bitcoins. And when assessing whether they have, the answer is a resounding yes. 

The below chart presents long-term holders against the total exchange balance. In November 2022, the number of bitcoins last active 10+ years ago overtook the number of bitcoins on exchanges. 

Of course, some of these long-term holders will be lost coins, either via their owner dying or losing their private keys. 

But the stat is still interesting and speaks to the cohort of (very) early investors in Bitcoin who remain clinging to their coins with all their might. Remember, this includes the anonymous Satoshi Nakamoto, who is estimated to hold over 1 million coins, or 5% of the total supply. 

Below is the chart displaying the current portion of the Bitcoin supply split out by time held and compared to the exchange balance. 

The result is interesting, but even more so when considering that the last three years brought both the euphoric highs of Bitcoin at nearly $70,000 during the pandemic and then the bone-crushing fall through 2022, which saw it careen down towards $15,000. 

In terms of the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin, it’s undoubtedly bullish. Of course, it all depends on whether the demand for additional Bitcoin will hold up. The supply may be getting squeezed, but that is all for nothing if the demand side doesn’t hold up its end of the bargain. 

And on that note, the last year has been a big blow. Not only has capital flowed out of the space at an alarming rate, but a number of very high-profile scandals (LUNA, Celsius, FTX and so on) have rocked the space. The fear is that these episodes have dented the reputation of the cryptocurrency space and will inhibit the demand for Bitcoin on the intuitional side. Have people been put off moving into the space?

It’s hard to say. But in looking at long-term holders, their confidence seems resolute. 

The post Least amount of Bitcoin on exchanges since the previous bull market top in December 2017 appeared first on CoinJournal.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin had deviated slightly from stocks over the last couple of weeks 
• Correlation has bounced back since
• Tech-heavy Nasdaq continues to trade in lockstep with Bitcoin as investors in both asset classes look to shifting expectations around interest rates 

It’s been an odd few weeks in the market. The banking wobbles over the last few weeks, triggered by the bank run on the crypto-friendly Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), caused everything to go a little wonky. 

One of the most curious aspects of this was a deviation from the normal Bitcoin/stocks relationship. Or, sort of. Bitcoin raced upwards while markets digested the banking news, with the correlation – at least on a short-term rolling 30-day metric – dipping as per the below chart. 

The chart also shows, however, that the correlation has since come back up. 

As I wrote in a deep dive at the time, we have seen these cases of temporarily dipping correlation a few times over the last year, most notably with the FTX crash in November, as well as the Celsius and LUNA crashes before it. 

But in each case, the correlation roared back. The above chart shows that it is beginning to do the same again this time. And the chart below shows that no matter what you swing it, the relationship here is pretty close (and forgive the axis crime on this one, please). 

What happens next?

The interesting question is what will happen going forward. The key development recently has been with regard to expectations around the future path of interest rates. 

The forecasts have been transformed. With hiking interest rates exposing the mismanagement of the aforementioned collapsed banks, the trouble has led to the market forecasting a pullback in plans to hike further. 

Instead of future hikes, there are now cuts in the pipeline, or at least according to the probabilities implied by fed futures. 

And it was the transition into this new interest rate paradigm, occurring last year as inflation began to roar and it became clear that central banks needed to act, which kicked the correlation up between stocks and Bitcoin. 

It is not that one is controlling the other, it is that Jerome Powell is controlling both. Tech stocks are particularly sensitive to interest rates, given the sector is valued so much by discounting future cash flows – and a lack of current profit – which is why the correlation, and bloodbath in 2022, was so strong between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq. 

Whether a potential pivot back off this uber-tight monetary policy sparks a deviation in correlation going forward is yet to be seen. Perhaps it will to a certain extent, but at the same time, it remains difficult to come up with a strong argument that Bitcoin is ready to truly deviate. 

A decoupling remains the ultimate bull vision for the asset, and perhaps it will get there one day in the future. But there is not much evidence, beyond blind hoping by those in the sector, that this is imminent. 

Over a multi-year time horizon into the future? That is anyone’s guess. But if the past couple of years has taught us anything, it is that stocks and Bitcoin are paired at the hip, especially tech stocks. The past couple of weeks, and the resumption of this trend, is actually more of a reminder of this than a proof against the theory.

The post Bitcoin correlation with stocks rises again, normal service resumed appeared first on CoinJournal.