Bitcoin at $1M forecast gains ground as money supply heads for $200 trillion

  • The ratio of global M2 money supply to Bitcoin in circulation has reached a record level.
  • Only 21 million BTC exist, boosting scarcity appeal.
  • The psychological framing of Bitcoin reaching $500,000—or even $1 million—is now gaining traction in both retail and institutional circles.

As the world’s money supply expands at an unprecedented pace, a growing number of market participants believe Bitcoin could eventually hit $1 million per coin.

The belief isn’t based on speculation alone—it stems from hard numbers.

Central banks are printing more money, governments are spending at record levels, and the global M2 money supply is expected to double from $100 trillion to $200 trillion by 2035.

With Bitcoin’s supply capped at 21 million, this massive influx of liquidity could create a potent supply-demand imbalance.

Money supply surge boosts BTC case

Bitcoin maximalists and macro-focused analysts now frequently cite monetary debasement as a key reason to hold the pioneer cryptocurrency.

Fred Krueger, a longtime Bitcoin advocate and investor, posted on X that “it will take 1 trillion USD moving into Bitcoin to get to 1 million.”

He argued that with the global money supply rising rapidly, “zero chance we don’t get there.”

The scale of monetary expansion is central to this view. Over the last 12 months, global liquidity has surged at one of the fastest rates on record.

Central banks across the US, UK, Europe, and Asia have continued accommodative policies, with large fiscal deficits becoming the norm.

These conditions, according to market observers, reduce the purchasing power of fiat currencies and push investors to explore alternatives.

River, a Bitcoin-focused financial services firm, highlighted that those who held BTC from July 2024 onwards have outperformed against money debasement tenfold.

This reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against currency dilution and economic instability.

M2 liquidity per BTC hits record

The ratio of global M2 money supply to Bitcoin in circulation has reached a record level.

According to decentralised finance investor Christiaan, there is currently about $5.7 million in global M2 liquidity per single Bitcoin.

This is the highest ratio in over a decade and is used to illustrate how limited Bitcoin’s supply is compared to the volume of fiat money in the global financial system.

This ratio, sometimes referred to as the liquidity-to-scarcity index, suggests that even modest capital inflows into Bitcoin—whether from institutional investors or sovereign wealth funds—could drive prices sharply higher.

Given the fixed 21 million coin limit, with many lost or illiquid, the supply-demand mechanics remain a central argument in favour of long-term price appreciation.

Retail push and historical trend

Retail investors are also being targeted with simplified messaging. Davinci Jeremie, a popular Bitcoin influencer, posted a video on social media urging viewers to invest just $1 into Bitcoin.

His message, “spend a dollar to change your future,” reflects a broader campaign among Bitcoin supporters to increase grassroots participation.

The psychological framing of Bitcoin reaching $500,000—or even $1 million—is now gaining traction in both retail and institutional circles.

As inflation fears persist, and as tech stocks become increasingly correlated with macro trends, many see Bitcoin as a standalone asset with unique supply properties.

While Bitcoin remains volatile in the short term, these macroeconomic dynamics are positioning it as a long-duration hedge.

The rising M2 supply and systemic debt loads across developed nations continue to lend weight to the idea that digital scarcity may offer long-term protection.

Historical data also supports the current optimism. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has consistently outpaced fiat currency performance during periods of rapid money printing and inflationary risk.

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Strategy buys 6,220 Bitcoin for $739.8M, takes total holdings past $43B

  • $740.3M raised via equity sales across four security classes.
  • 1.6M MSTR shares sold under $21B ATM authorisation.
  • Strategy’s BTC yield for 2025 stands at 20.8% year-to-date.

Strategy has added another 6,220 Bitcoin to its corporate balance sheet, spending $739.8 million during the week ending July 20, 2025.

The purchase was funded through the company’s ongoing at-the-market (ATM) equity offerings.

With this latest acquisition, the firm now owns 607,770 BTC—worth over $43 billion at current prices—making it the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin worldwide.

The firm, chaired by billionaire Michael Saylor, paid an average of $118,940 per Bitcoin in its latest purchase, as disclosed in a filing published on Monday.

This represents a significant premium over its historical average acquisition cost of $71,756 per BTC.

Strategy issues 1.6M MSTR shares in latest equity round

Between July 14 and July 20, Strategy raised approximately $740.3 million across four different security classes.

The majority of funds—$736.4 million—were generated from the sale of 1,636,373 MSTR common shares.

The company also issued 5,441 STRK preferred shares with an 8.00% strike, raising $700,000. Another 2,000 STRF shares were sold at a 10.00% strike, bringing in $200,000. Additionally, 31,282 STRD preferred shares, also with a 10.00% stride, were issued for $3.0 million in proceeds.

All four instruments fall under large multi-billion-dollar issuance programmes. Both the MSTR and STRK share classes are authorised for up to $21 billion each.

These programmes demonstrate Strategy’s continued ability to convert equity into Bitcoin reserves at scale without relying on traditional financing channels.

BTC acquisition cost shows 20.8% YTD return for Strategy

Bitcoin prices remain significantly higher than Strategy’s average cost basis of $71,756, giving the firm a year-to-date return of 20.8% on its BTC holdings.

At current market prices—just above $118,000—Strategy’s crypto treasury continues to outperform many traditional corporate investments.

This yield figure is particularly notable as Bitcoin has consolidated after hitting an all-time high of $123,000 last week.

Although prices have since pulled back slightly, the bullish market structure remains intact.

Analysts have observed a pennant formation following BTC’s strong rally in July, typically a continuation pattern that suggests potential for further upside.

Despite short-term market volatility, Strategy’s long-term accumulation approach has proven resilient.

The latest purchase reinforces its strategy of treating Bitcoin as a primary treasury asset and a long-term store of value.

Market reacts as Saylor signals continued BTC accumulation

Michael Saylor has maintained a consistent narrative around Bitcoin being a superior store of value.

On Saturday, just days after the most recent BTC buy, he posted on X (formerly Twitter): “Stay humble, stack sats.” The phrase has been interpreted as a signal that Strategy’s accumulation is far from over.

The company’s approach, combining equity capital markets with ongoing BTC purchases, serves as a blueprint for institutional crypto exposure.

As regulatory clarity and institutional infrastructure improve, Strategy’s model could influence how other publicly listed firms handle treasury allocation.

Bitcoin’s latest rally, paired with corporate participation at this scale, continues to shift market sentiment toward long-term adoption.

While the token’s price has slipped slightly from its recent peak, its resilience above the $115,000 level is being closely watched by traders and institutional investors alike.

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US House passes three key crypto bills; market reaction muted as Bitcoin dips

  • US House passed all three key crypto bills: the CLARITY Act, GENIUS Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act.
  • Despite the “historic” legislative wins, crypto markets remained flat, with Bitcoin down 0.89% to $118,849.
  • The GENIUS Act (stablecoins) is the first major crypto bill to clear both chambers and is now on President Trump’s desk.

The US House of Representatives has delivered a week of landmark legislative victories for the cryptocurrency industry, passing all three key bills aimed at providing long-sought regulatory clarity.

However, in a striking display of market apathy, this historic breakthrough in Washington has been met with a collective shrug from crypto traders, with prices remaining largely flat.

In what many industry proponents are calling a watershed moment, the US House has now passed the CLARITY Act, the GENIUS Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act.

The CLARITY Act, which passed by a strong vote of 294 to 134, aims to establish clear guidelines for classifying digital assets as either securities under the purview of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or as commodities under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, which passed by a much narrower 219 to 217 vote, effectively bans the Federal Reserve from issuing or even testing a central bank digital currency without explicit Congressional approval. Both of these bills will now advance to the Senate, where their future remains uncertain.

The most significant of the three, the GENIUS Act, which creates a regulatory framework for stablecoins, has already cleared both chambers of Congress. Having previously passed the Senate with a 68 to 30 vote, it sailed through the House this week with a decisive 308 to 122 vote.

This bill is now on President Trump’s desk, making it the first major piece of crypto-focused legislation on track to become US law.

Despite these monumental legislative achievements, the crypto markets have remained conspicuously unfazed. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $118,849, down 0.89% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) is hovering at $3,389, down 0.27%.

The broader altcoin market has also been mostly muted. The one notable exception is XRP, which is up over 8% on the day, continuing a strong bullish run it has maintained throughout the week.

The market’s tepid reaction is further evidenced by liquidation data. According to Coinglass, 150,169 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching nearly $490 million.

The largest single liquidation was a $3.21 million ETH-USDT long position on the crypto exchange HTX, a sign of the choppy, directionless trading that has characterized the market.

A tale of two markets: crypto stalls as Wall Street soars

The crypto market’s indifference stands in stark contrast to the exuberance seen in traditional stock markets.

Major US indexes surged to fresh record highs on Friday, as upbeat corporate earnings and stronger-than-expected economic data lifted investor sentiment.

The S&P 500 jumped 0.54% to a new record close of 6,297.36, marking its ninth all-time closing high of the year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also hit its tenth record of 2025, climbing 0.74% to finish at 20,884.27, driven by strength in major tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 229.71 points, or 0.52%, to close at 44,484.49.

This rally in equities was supported by strong economic data, including a retail sales report for June that came in at 0.6%, beating expectations of 0.2%, and a drop in jobless claims, both signaling a still-resilient US economy.

Strong earnings reports from companies like PepsiCo and United Airlines further boosted optimism as the second-quarter earnings season gets underway.

This divergence highlights a curious moment in markets, where a significant, long-awaited regulatory victory for crypto has failed to generate the kind of bullish excitement currently being seen on Wall Street.

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Bitcoin trades near $119K after new all-time high; Coinbase rebrands wallet to ‘Base App’

Bitcoin is holding steady above the $118,800 mark as the market digests its recent powerful rally to a new all-time high of over $122,000.

While on-chain data now indicates that the first wave of heavy profit-taking has begun, particularly among short-term holders sitting on significant gains, some analysts believe that historical patterns still suggest room for another push higher, though they are also warning that “overheating” signals are beginning to flash.

In a recent report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlighted that “short-term holders are now sitting on significant unrealized profits,” a condition that is pushing key indicators “towards overheated territory.”

The Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Profit metric recently hit 15.4%, breaching a key statistical threshold (+1 standard deviation) before cooling slightly. Historically, this level “often marks the beginning of top formation,” according to Glassnode.

The firm also pointed to the Realized Profit to Loss Ratio, which recently spiked to a staggering 39.8, “well above the +2 standard deviation threshold,” signaling a period of intense profit-taking from successful traders.

Although this ratio has since declined to a more moderate 7.3, the elevated reading remains consistent with behavior typically seen in the late stages of a bull market.

“So far, both the Percent of Spent Volume in Profit and the Realized Profit to Loss Ratio have signaled the first wave of excessive profit-taking,” the report concluded.

While this doesn’t necessarily mark a definitive market top, Glassnode cautions that “such top formations tend to unfold across multiple waves,” with the next major resistance level for Bitcoin projected to be around the $130,000 mark.

The great rotation: traders move into altcoins

As Bitcoin’s near-term upside appears increasingly constrained by this profit-taking pressure, some traders are beginning to rotate their capital into major altcoins.

Ethereum (ETH) surged an impressive 7.5% in the past 24 hours, outpacing Bitcoin and breaking out of a recent consolidation phase.

Analysts have pointed to the recent advancement of the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin regulation bill, as a potential catalyst for ETH’s strong performance.

Solana (SOL) also saw a significant jump, up 5%, buoyed by fresh on-chain data showing that Galaxy Digital had accumulated $55 million worth of SOL within a tight two-hour window, withdrawing the tokens from multiple centralized exchanges.

This rotation into major altcoins like ETH and SOL suggests that while Bitcoin’s broader market structure remains intact, traders are seeking opportunities for higher returns in other parts of the crypto ecosystem.

Coinbase’s big rebrand: from ‘Wallet’ to ‘Base App’

In a significant development for the broader crypto ecosystem, Coinbase has officially rebranded its popular Wallet product as the ‘Base App’.

This move confirms speculation that had been swirling since the company scrubbed its X profile earlier this week.

The rebranding positions the app as a central gateway into the burgeoning Base ecosystem, which is now being pitched as a full-stack, on-chain platform designed for mainstream adoption.

The rebrand was officially announced during Coinbase’s “A New Day One” event, which also unveiled a broader vision for the Base ecosystem, now built around three key pillars: the existing Layer-2 network, Base Chain; a new developer toolkit suite dubbed Base Build; and the newly launched Base App.

Unlike its predecessor, the Coinbase Wallet, the new Base App is designed to be much more than just a place to store crypto.

It will integrate chat functionalities, payments, trading, and a mini-app marketplace that supports a wide range of social and financial experiences.

This is not Coinbase’s first attempt at a wallet makeover (long-time crypto users will remember its original wallet, “Toshi”), but it is arguably its most ambitious.

With the Base ecosystem increasingly distancing itself from the parent Coinbase brand, the new app appears designed to emphasize Base’s distinct identity as a more decentralized, open ecosystem—one that is anchored in the core values of crypto but packaged in a user-friendly way for the everyday consumer.

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Bitcoin pulls back; AI token sector market cap hits $29.6B

  • Bitcoin (BTC) is down 1.8% but trades above $117,800 as traders take profits after recent all-time highs.
  • AI-focused crypto tokens jumped 5% overnight as big tech firms like Google and Meta announced massive infrastructure investments.
  • Google plans a $25B data center investment; a Trump-led summit saw over $90B in AI/data pledges unveiled.

Bitcoin has taken a slight breather as the East Asian business day gets underway, dipping 1.8% but still trading firmly above the $117,800 mark at the time of writing this article.

This pause comes as some traders take profits after a powerful run that saw the leading cryptocurrency push through multiple all-time highs.

While bullish sentiment remains strong, with some market participants calling for even higher price targets, seasoned observers are sounding a note of caution, warning that risks are building just as quickly as market enthusiasm.

A rally on pause?

The current market sentiment is a mix of unbridled optimism and underlying apprehension.

There is a palpable belief among some that the recent rally is just the beginning, with bold calls for Bitcoin to reach $160,000, $200,000, or even higher.

However, Lennex Lai, Chief Commercial Officer at the crypto exchange OKX, warns that this very enthusiasm could be a source of risk.

“Across platforms, we’re seeing an increase in aggressive long positions and widening funding rates as ‘Crypto Week’ headlines boost sentiment,” Lai told CoinDesk in an interview via Telegram.

He stressed that at these elevated levels, “risks can build quickly – escalation of trade tensions with the EU, Mexico, and other trading partners could trigger sharp corrections.

Another risk is letting euphoria drive decisions.”

Lai pointed to a slate of upcoming macroeconomic announcements that could sway global risk sentiment and set the tone for broader markets.

These include the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, as well as the US Core Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales figures, and consumer sentiment data.

Echoes of past volatility and a cautious professional class

Lai’s concerns echo the findings of a recent H1 2025 market report from K33 Research, which highlighted similar risks and volatility triggers earlier this year.

The report noted that geopolitical turmoil and trade policy uncertainty have already driven significant market swings, including a sharp 30% correction that saw Bitcoin fall to $75,000 earlier in the year.

The K33 report also observed that “Bitcoin struggled in this de-risking period but showed subtle hints of relative strength vs equities by outperforming equities in the aftermath of Liberation Day.”

A key indicator of underlying caution among seasoned traders has been the historically low funding rates seen amidst rising prices.

“Annualized funding rates averaged at 4.51% throughout the half-year, the lowest average half-year funding rate since December 31, 2022,” when the post-FTX crypto winter was at its coldest, the report stated.

This suggests that while prices have been rising, professional traders have remained wary of abrupt market reversals.

Lennex Lai emphasized the need for a disciplined approach in this environment. “In moments like this, smart traders focus on strategy over sentiment, using discipline to manage risk,” he continued.

“The excitement at the top is real, but those who manage their entries, exits, and funding exposure carefully are best positioned for whatever comes next.” After all, he concluded, “strong momentum doesn’t mean the market is invincible.”

AI tokens catch a bid as big tech doubles down on infrastructure

While Bitcoin consolidates, a different corner of the crypto market is experiencing a significant rally. AI-focused crypto tokens jumped by 5% overnight, pushing the sector’s total market capitalization to $29.6 billion, according to data from CoinGecko.

This move comes amidst a flurry of major announcements from U.S. tech giants regarding massive investments in AI and data infrastructure, sparking renewed investor enthusiasm in both traditional equity and digital token markets.

Google announced on Tuesday that it will invest a staggering $25 billion into data centers and AI infrastructure across the PJM electric grid, the largest in the United States.

The company also agreed to purchase 3,000 megawatts of hydroelectric power through a $3 billion deal with Brookfield. Not to be outdone, Meta is reportedly planning “hundreds of billions” in AI data center construction, including a multi-gigawatt facility in Ohio, codenamed “Prometheus.”

These blockbuster announcements were strategically timed around a Trump administration-led summit at Carnegie Mellon University, where over $90 billion in AI, energy, and data infrastructure pledges were unveiled.

This overwhelmingly bullish tone on AI, from both the government and private industry, appears to be spilling over into the crypto token markets, at least for now.


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