Crypto industry ‘destined’ to be BTC-focused due to regulators, says Michael Saylor

Key takeaways

  • Michael Saylor believes that the crypto industry will become Bitcoin-focused.

  • Bitcoin is trading above $26k as the market slowly recovers. 

Crypto industry will be BTC-focused

MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor believes that the cryptocurrency industry is destined to become BTC-focused. He made this statement during an interview with Bloomberg.

According to Saylor, Bitcoin is the only major cryptocurrency that has been excluded as a security by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). He pointed out that the regulatory agency doesn’t see a legitimate path forward for cryptocurrencies

Saylor also added that cryptocurrency exchanges would fuel a price surge in Bitcoin in the near term. He stated that;

“[The SEC’s] view is crypto exchanges should trade and hold pure digital commodities like Bitcoin, and so the entire industry is kind of destined to be rationalized down to a Bitcoin-focused industry with maybe a half a dozen to a dozen other proof of work tokens. The next logical step is for Bitcoin to 10x from here and then 10x again.”

Bitcoin’s market dominance increases to 47%

Bitcoin began the year with a market dominance of 40%. However, thanks to the rally experienced in the last few months, Bitcoin’s market dominance now stands above 47%. 

Saylor believes that Bitcoin’s market dominance will reach 80% as more institutional funds will enter the market after confusion and anxiety over crypto disappear. 

MicroStrategy has been buying more bitcoins despite the ongoing bear market. In March, the company purchased 6,455 bitcoins worth $150 million. Saylor’s company currently holds more than 138,900 bitcoins.

The world’s leading cryptocurrency has been underperforming in recent days. At press time, the price of Bitcoin stands at $26,001, down by more than 3% in the last seven days.

The broader cryptocurrency market has also seen its total cap increase since the start of the year. At the start of the year, the total cryptocurrency market stood above $700 billion. The total cryptocurrency market cap has since climbed past the $1 trillion mark.

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Here’s why the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin correlation has faded

  • Bitcoin price has crashed by about $6,000 from its highest point this year.

  • Nasdaq has moved into a strong bull market because of AI.

  • The Federal Reserve will conclude its two-day meeting on Wednesday.

Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin prices have moved in the opposite direction in the past few weeks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index has soared to the highest level since April last year. In all, it has jumped by almost 40% from the lowest level this year. 

Bitcoin price, on the other hand, has been stuck at the important support level at $25,200. It has dropped by more than $6,000 from its highest level this year. In the past, Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin had a close correlation because they are often seen as high-risk assets.

Regulatory concerns

The main reason why the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin price correlation has faded is the ongoing crackdown in the United States. On Monday last week, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a major lawsuit against Binance, the biggest company in the industry.

The agency accused the company of deceptive practices, commingling funds, and offering its services in the United States illegally. Then on Tuesday, the SEC filed a lawsuit against Coinbase, the biggest company in the US. It accused Coinbase of listing unregistered securities to American customers.

The regulatory crackdown comes at a time when the crypto industry has gone through a challenging period. Last November, FTX, a major crypto exchange filed for bankruptcy, costing invetors billions of dollars. 

Crypto companies argue that the SEC and other policymakers have not issued clear guidance about the crypto industry. For example, Coinbase questioned why the SEC allowed it to go public if it offered illegal products.

Why Nasdaq 100 index is soaring

On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 index is soaring because of FOMO and the ongoing artificial intelligence hype. A closer look at the top movers in the Nasdaq 100 index shows that they have a thing to do with AI.

Nvidia share price has jumped by more than 180% this year, giving it a market cap of over $1 trillion. Tesla, which is also investing in AI, has soared by over 110% while Broadcom, Amazon, and Palo Alto Networks have risen by more than 70%.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that investors are rotating from the high-risk crypto industry to invest in stocks. Stocks are widely seen as being less risky than cryptocurrencies. 

Still, there is a likelihood that cryptocurrencies will bounce back later this month as the regulatory concerns ease. As we have seen in the past, these cases tend to take years to conclude. 

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Bitcoin and Ethereum network revenues spiked in May despite significant headwinds: ETC Group report

  • Bitcoin revenue jumped 249% YoY in May, while Ethereum network fees rose 53.7% in May, according to a research report by the ETC Group.
  • Ordinals and enterprise adoption drove network revenues for Bitcoin and Ethereum respectively.
  • Regulation and macroeconomics remain key factors even as benefits of tokenisation attracts major banks.

The current market outlook for Bitcoin and crypto continues to suffer from the flurry of activities around the actions of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after it sued Binance and Coinbase. 

While June started off with wild volatility that has pegged prices below key levels, a new report suggests the market headwinds in May did little to slow down network revenue generation for the world’s two largest blockchains by market cap over the month.

Bitcoin and Ethereum network growth

The report by German-based ETP (exchange-traded products) issuer ETC Group highlights a significant jump in network revenue for both Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past month. 

ETC Group Research team’s Tom Rodgers (Head of Research) and Hanut Singh (a Research Analyst at ETC Group and formely with CoinJournal), shared the outlook via an overview of the biggest trends and events in crypto over the month – from regulation to macroeconomics and adoption as signaled by on-chain data.

Writing in the Digital Assets and Metaverse Monthly Review: May 2023, Rodgers and Hanut noted that although continued headwinds saw the total crypto market cap flatline near $1.1 trillion. 

On the macro level, the uncertainty around the US debt ceiling debate weighed on crypto markets. Elsewhere, the regulatory front saw the non-friendly approach by the US SEC and UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) continue to impact sentiment. 

However, despite these factors, there was noteworthy growth in terms of network revenue for the leading blockchains.

“…revenues generated by the two largest blockchains by market cap rose substantially in May due to increasing user bases and new technological developments, most notably Ordinals for Bitcoin, and increasing adoption for Ethereum enterprise solutions,” the ETC Group research team wrote.

Ordinals helped push Bitcoin revenue up 249% YoY in May

According to the ETC Group report, the weekly revenue on the Bitcoin network increased by 249% year over year in May. This was largely driven by the spike in Ordinals, which as CoinJournal reported here, saw BTC miners record multi-year highs in transaction revenue.

The demand for the Bitcoin Ordinals meant transaction fees amounted to 29.57% of monthly revenue for miners – the last time it was that high was during the 2017 bull market that had seen the first real foray into crypto by institutional investors.

Ethereum network fees jumped 53.7% in May

For Ethereum, renewed interest in staking was visible in May despite the fears of a major withdrawal rout after the Shapella upgrade. Indeed, as the ETC Group report highlights, the supply of staked ETH on the mainnet rose from 14% to almost 20% at the end of the month. About $46 billion worth of ETH was staked, representing a 200% jump in the percentage of supply locked on the network.

This has happened even as ETH supply has declined since the Merge. Meanwhile, monthly fees rose by 53.7% in the month – from $241 million in April to $448 million in May. Increased demand for Ethereum blockspace is behind the jump in total network fees, the researchers noted.

Crypto regulation in the US

While US presidential candidates Ron DeSantis (R) and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (D) have indicated support for Bitcoin, the overall outlook on US crypto regulation remains largely hostile even with bipartisan engagements.

The SEC recently ramped up its crackdown with the lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, even as the crypto community highly anticipates the outcome of another high profile case between the SEC and Ripple Labs over the XRP token.

This even as Asia emerged as a strong destination for crypto, led by Hong Kong’s recent regulatory guidelines that have seen OKX, Huobi and other exchanges apply for licenses. The adoption of the MiCA rules by Europe was also a notable event that could make the bloc attractive to more US-based crypto businesses.

Tokenisation sees major banks eye blockchain adoption

May also witnessed increased institutional interest in blockchain amid further growth in tokenisation.

Interest peaked after State Street, the second-oldest US bank, hinted at a move likely to help bring $1.4 trillion worth of assets onto the blockchain via tokenisation of ETFs. The issue of tokenisation and its benefits had also previously been highlighted by the Bank of New York Mellon. 

That’s also the view of Citibank, which has suggested tokenisation could see up to $4 trillion of liquid and illiquid assets brought on-chain.

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Solo Bitcoin miner beats the odds to win 6.25 BTC block reward

  • A solo Bitcoin miner earned the 6.25 BTC block reward after beating the odds to solve block 793607.
  • The miner reportedly used an Antminer S9 with about 17 TH.
  • At today’s Bitcoin mining difficulty and with 17 TH, a solo miner would need an average of 450 years to land a block.

With Bitcoin price struggling below $26,000, and the wider crypto market impacted by recent regulatory events, there’s has been very little to cheer Bitcoiners.

But for a solo BTC miner, a lucky break had them strike gold with the winning of a block reward. According to on-chain data, the miner beat staggering odds to mine block 793607 and earn the 6.25 BTC block reward.

BTC miner with single Antminer S9 hits jackpot

The solo miner reportedly achieved the once-in-a-life-time feat using a single Antminer S9 and accounted for only 17 terahashes (TH). Their “lottery” win was worth about $160,000 at the time of block reward.

Congratulations to miner 151XTfHBfaDqoNWGGeYobNX2YzFFWuB5YD with only ~17TH for solving the 275th block at http://solo.ckpool.org! That is likely a single S9 miner. A miner of this size would only solve a block once every ~450 years on average,” tweeted Con Kolivas, a CGMiner software engineer and the admin of Solo CKPool.  

It’s not the first time a solo miner has hit such a jackpot, with CKPool apparently seeing seven such instances since January. However, the feat is increasingly difficult as the Bitcoin hashrate and mining difficulty have increased.

According to data from Blockchain.com, the current Bitcoin mining difficulty is 51.23 trillion hashes. Mining difficulty looks at how difficult it is to mine the next block, that is how many hashes a miner must generate to find and solve a valid block. The current difficulty is at all-time highs and has most blocks solved by major mining pools and companies.

The difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks (about two weeks’ time) and can go up or down. The next adjustment expected on June 14 will see the difficulty jump by about 2.92% to 52.73 T.

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Bitcoin mining difficulty hits all-time high, above 50 trillion hashes


Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin mining difficulty has surpassed 50 trillion hashes for the first time ever
  • Higher difficulty means more competition and less profit for miners, but also more security for the Bitcoin network
  • Higher mining difficulty means greater energy input required to mine Bitcoin, meaning greater cost for miners
  • Mining stocks have underperformed Bitcoin significantly over the last year

It has never been so difficult to mine Bitcoin. Literally. Bitcoin mining difficulty continues to rise incessantly, surpassing the 50 trillion hash mark for the first time ever last week.

What is Bitcoin mining difficulty?

If it were not for the Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment, blocks would be appended to the blockchain at an increasing speed as more miners joined the Bitcoin network. In such a way, the Bitcoin mining difficulty adjusts via an automatic algorithm to ensure blocks are appended to the ever-growing blockchain at consistent 10 minute intervals.

As more miners join the network, difficulty rises. In such a way, blocks do not get discovered quicker as more miners join the network. This difficulty adjustment is thus vital to ensure the supply of Bitcoin is released at a pre-programmed pace, as outlined by the anonymous Satoshi Nakamoto in the Bitcoin whitepaper. 

This explains how, in the early days, mining could be carried out on a personal laptop, because Bitcoin was so niche and miners were so few and far between – hence the mining difficulty was far lower. This is why you hear stories of miners who find (or lose) stashes of Bitcoin on old hard drives which were close to worthless when they were mined. 

Today, however, Bitcoin is well and truly in the mainstream, and mining difficulty has risen accordingly. Most mining is carried out by supercomputers, while there are many public companies carrying out the task.  

What does increasing mining difficulty mean?

Mining difficulty is increasing because more computational power is being put towards Bitcoin mining. The hash rate is what we refer to as the computational power of the Bitcoin network. Looking at the chart, this is at an all-time high – which makes intuitive sense, given mining difficulty is also at an all-time high. 

For the Bitcoin network as a whole, this is a good thing. Bitcoin’s hash rate is a crucial indicator of the security of the network. A higher hash rate means Bitcoin is more resistant to an attack by a malevolent actor. This is because the higher the hash rate, the more expensive and implausible it is for an actor (or a group of actors) to seize control of 51% of the network, when Bitcoin could be exposed to what is known as a 51% attack (coins could be double spent and the veracity of the blockchain would be in doubt). 

However, there are downsides to this, too. I detailed this in depth last week in a report on Bitcoin mining stocks. In summary, more hash power means greater cost for miners, as the increased difficulty means a greater amount of energy is required to power the computers working to validate the transactions on the blockchain. This is why miners margins are getting cut into as more miners join the network (rising electricity costs also do not help). 

“The rapid decline in the Bitcoin price, down from $68,000 at the peak of the bull market in late 2021, has obviously hurt the mining industry”, says Max Coupland, director of CoinJournal. “However, that is far from the only problem facing miners. The mining difficulty hitting an all-time high means greater amounts of energy are required to mine, at a time when inflation and the Russian war have pushed the price of energy up immensely”. 

The mining industry is hence extremely volatile, as not only is it sensitive to the volatility of Bitcoin itself, but it also suffers from rising energy costs. The below chart demonstrates how mining stocks have underperformed Bitcoin in recent times. It looks at the Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF, which tracks mining companies and was launched in February 2022. 

With Bitcoin mining difficulty hitting an all-time high, racing past the 50 trillion hash mark for the first time ever, things won’t get any easier for miners. However, like always, it will ultimately come down to the Bitcoin price. With block rewards and transaction fees recouped in the form of Bitcoin, and the entire industry built upon this asset, mining companies will go as far as the Bitcoin price takes them.

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