Market update: Bitcoin rises after US-EU announce framework trade agreement

  • Bitcoin (BTC) traded above $119,430 Monday, up 1.24%, after a US-EU trade deal was announced.
  • The US-EU deal sets a 15% tariff, avoiding a threatened 30% rate, and includes a $600B EU investment pledge.
  • Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization crossed the $1 trillion threshold for the first time, per Glassnode.

Bitcoin (BTC) pushed higher in early Asian trading on Monday, trading above $119,430, as bullish momentum continued to build following a series of significant institutional milestones and a breakthrough trade agreement between the United of States and the European Union over the weekend.

A transatlantic truce: US and EU strike a deal

In a major development for global markets, US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a framework trade agreement at a summit in Turnberry, Scotland.

The deal sets a 15% US import tariff on EU goods, a significant de-escalation that averts a previously threatened 30% rate.

The agreement also includes a commitment for $600 billion in EU investment into US energy and defense sectors over the next three years, a move aimed at reducing Europe’s reliance on Russian fuel.

However, existing tariffs on steel and aluminum will remain at 50% for the time being.

This easing of transatlantic trade tensions has provided a positive backdrop for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is up 1.24% in early Asian hours, and the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index, a broad measure of the largest digital assets, has risen 2.37% to 4,099.18, extending its recent recovery.

Bitcoin’s institutional bedrock deepens

The positive macro news comes as Bitcoin continues to consolidate its recent gains, holding steady above the $118,000 mark after hitting a new record high of $122,700 last week.

This powerful rally has triggered some predictable selling from long-term holders, while simultaneously drawing in new buyers and fresh capital, creating a dynamic market environment.

A key indicator of the market’s growing maturity and value was highlighted by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which reported that Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization had crossed the $1 trillion threshold for the first time.

This metric, which measures the total value of all Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain, is seen as a more fundamentally grounded valuation than the simple market cap.

Further evidence of the massive scale of institutional activity came to light on Friday, when Galaxy Digital announced it had executed a staggering $9 billion BTC transaction on behalf of a Satoshi-era investor.

The sale, which involved 80,000 BTC, was reportedly part of an estate planning strategy and represents one of the largest single Bitcoin transfers in history.

The fact that the market was able to absorb this massive sale without a significant price downturn is seen by many as a testament to how much of the Bitcoin supply is illiquid, held tightly by long-term “HODLers.”

A market on the verge of a supply-shock rally, it seems, can readily absorb an extra $9 billion being placed up for sale.

As Bitcoin’s price has climbed, its dominance, which measures its market share relative to the total crypto market, has edged down slightly to 60.98%. This suggests a modest rotation of capital into altcoins as traders’ risk appetite grows.

The bullish sentiment is also being reflected in prediction markets. Polymarket bettors now give Bitcoin a 24% chance of hitting $125,000 before the end of July, an increase from 18% earlier in the week, as traders weigh the impact of these positive macro tailwinds and the growing on-chain conviction.

Broader Market Snapshot

  • ETH: Ether is trading at $3,867.76, up 3%, amidst strong on-chain fundamentals.

  • A significant 28% of the total ETH supply is now staked, balances on exchanges are at eight-year lows (indicating a preference for holding over selling), and new buyer inflows are on the rise.

  • Gold: In a classic “risk-on” move, gold is down for a fourth straight day, trading around $3,335 in early Asia.

  • Despite its impressive 28% year-to-date gain, recent progress on US–EU and US–China trade deals is reducing the immediate demand for safe-haven assets ahead of this week’s US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

  • Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Monday, with investors also awaiting further details of ongoing US–China trade talks.

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Bitcoin L2 Stacks (STX) price drops heavily after transaction suspension

  • Stacks (STX) drops 2.5% as Bithumb announces temporary halting of transactions.
  • Network upgrades aim to boost Stacks’ security and features.
  • The suspension of transactions is scheduled to begin on July 29.

Stacks (STX) token has seen its price drop by 11.4% in a week, even as the Bitcoin (BTC) price remains largely bullish.

The decline comes at a time when excitement is building around Bitcoin-based DeFi and key network upgrades are underway.

However, a major development from South Korean exchange Bithumb appears to have influenced investor sentiment, triggering notable short-term pressure on the STX token.

Price pressure hits Stacks (STX) despite DeFi momentum

STX is currently trading at $0.7786, marking a drop of 2.5% today and a sharp 11.4% decline over the past seven days.

This drop comes even as Bitcoin, the asset it is built to complement, maintains a largely positive trend.

The downward move has raised eyebrows among market watchers, especially given the recent momentum around the Stacks DeFi ecosystem.

But despite the drop, STX has still gained more than 15% over the last month, driven in part by the ongoing “STX DeFi SZN” campaign — a collaborative launch among leading Bitcoin DeFi protocols.

Through a partnership with Zealy.io, the campaign is offering 50,000 STX in rewards for users completing on-chain quests.

While the broader DeFi push is designed to strengthen the ecosystem, it hasn’t been enough to offset short-term fears triggered by external factors.

Bithumb’s temporary suspension fuels uncertainty

One of the main catalysts behind STX’s recent price dip is the news of Bithumb’s announcement of a temporary suspension of STX deposits and withdrawals.

Scheduled to begin at 03:00 UTC on July 29, according to a report by Bitcoin World, the suspension is aimed at supporting a significant upgrade of the Stacks network.

For many traders, however, the move has sparked concern.

Even though such suspensions are standard during blockchain upgrades, the market often reacts with caution.

Investors worry about temporary inaccessibility and possible disruptions in trading activity.

As a result, some may have opted to sell early to avoid complications, contributing to the current price decline.

Stacks upgrades bring long-term promise

The Stacks Network upgrades themselves are crucial milestones for the network.

Stacks is a Bitcoin Layer 1 blockchain that enables smart contracts and decentralised apps (dApps) to run using Bitcoin as the settlement layer.

It brings programmability to Bitcoin without changing Bitcoin itself.

Transactions on Stacks are automatically hashed and secured by Bitcoin’s hashpower through a mechanism known as Proof of Transfer (PoX).

This approach makes Stacks one of the most secure smart contract layers available today.

The upcoming upgrade is expected to enhance this security while improving performance and enabling new features for developers and users alike.

Moreover, STX plays a central role in this ecosystem. It is used for transaction fees, governance decisions, and stacking, where users can earn Bitcoin by locking their tokens.

As the Stacks network upgrades progress, STX may gain greater utility and adoption, potentially reversing the current downtrend over time.

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Michael Saylor’s Strategy upsizes ‘stretch’ preferred stock sale to $2.8 billion

  • Michael Saylor’s Strategy launched and upsized a new preferred stock offering from $500M to $2.8 billion.
  • The ‘Stretch’ security promises a hefty 9% annual payout with no end date and a flexible, adjustable dividend.
  • The deal is the latest in Saylor’s years-long effort to transform Strategy into a financial vehicle to acquire Bitcoin.

Michael Saylor’s relentless quest to transform his company, Strategy, into a Bitcoin-acquiring financial juggernaut has reached a new level of ambition.

The firm has launched and then promptly upsized a novel preferred stock offering, raising a staggering $2.8 billion in a deal that further showcases Saylor’s prowess in the capital markets and the insatiable investor appetite for exposure to the booming crypto market.

As crypto prices continue their upward march, Saylor’s Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, has once again demonstrated its unique ability to tap into market enthusiasm.

The company priced a new kind of security on Thursday, which it has dubbed “Stretch.” This offering promises buyers a hefty 9% annual payout with no specified end date, an unusual feature in the often-arcane world of preferred stock.

Initially planned as a $500 million deal, the offering was upsized to $2.8 billion due to overwhelming demand, according to a person familiar with the transaction who asked to remain anonymous.

This move is the latest, and perhaps most audacious, demonstration of Saylor’s Wall Street wizardry in his years-long effort to pivot a middling software firm, formerly known as MicroStrategy, into a corporate entity singularly obsessed with one goal: raising as much money as possible to acquire as many Bitcoin as possible.

At last count, the company’s hoard stood at some 600,000 coins, worth approximately $70 billion.

“This is not the first financial engineering initiative by Strategy,” noted Campbell Harvey, a professor at Duke University. “In any situation where your company is worth far more than fundamental value, you raise money.”

Since Strategy’s first groundbreaking Bitcoin purchase in 2020, Saylor has employed a diverse range of financial instruments, including selling equity, issuing various types of debt, and layering multiple stacks of preferred shares.

In doing so, he has not only amassed a colossal Bitcoin treasury but has also inspired a fleet of imitators, spurring a new industry of public companies dedicated to the so-called “treasury strategy” of buying and holding cryptocurrencies.

The ‘Stretch’ security: a new twist on an old theme

Many of the previous financial instruments that have fueled Strategy’s rise have proven to be more popular than expected, but even against that backdrop, the demand for “Stretch” was notable.

The company’s common shares rose 0.5% on Wednesday and are up an impressive 43% for the year.

The new “Stretch” shares occupy a specific place in Strategy’s complex and unusual capital structure.

They sit above the company’s common stock and its other preferred shares—which carry creative names like “Strike” and “Stride”—but remain subordinate to its convertible bonds and another preferred stock known as “Strife.”

A key feature that distinguishes “Stretch” from earlier offerings is its flexible dividend. Unlike a fixed payout, this security allows Strategy to tweak the dividend rate.

Each month, the firm will set a new payout rate with the aim of keeping the share price near the $100 mark, raising or lowering the dividend as needed to maintain this target. It’s a unique combination of a dynamic pricing model and a trust exercise, and a clear reminder that in the world of financial engineering, Strategy often creates its own rules.

Diminishing returns? A discount to win over investors

While this flexibility may appeal to Saylor’s large and dedicated fan base of retail investors, it also introduces a new layer of uncertainty into an already complex capital structure.

There are some signs that Saylor’s tactics may be facing somewhat diminishing returns, as the value of the company, relative to the Bitcoin it owns, has reportedly gone down.

In a move to win over investors for its latest offering, Strategy offered the “Stretch” shares at a discount. The shares, which are set to carry an initial dividend of 9%, were sold for $90 each.

This was at the bottom of the marketed range and represents a discount to their face value of $100, according to the person familiar with the deal.

Despite the discount, the outsized demand for the deal provides the latest and most powerful sign of both Saylor’s avid following and the continued speculative fervor that is running through the financial markets.

According to a previous Bloomberg report, major financial institutions including Morgan Stanley, Barclays Plc, Moelis & Co., and TD Securities worked on this landmark deal.

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A crypto crutch for Tesla? How a 30% Bitcoin rally is propping up a challenging earnings picture

  • Tesla’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings are now worth ~$1.2 billion after a 30% BTC price rally in Q2.
  • A new US accounting rule (FASB) now allows Tesla to report the fair market value of its crypto holdings quarterly.
  • Tesla has not bought or sold any Bitcoin for eight straight quarters, with its holdings unchanged at a cost basis of $184M.

Tesla’s significant Bitcoin holdings are now worth approximately $1.2 billion, thanks to a powerful 30% rally in the cryptocurrency’s price during the second quarter of this year.

This paper gain, highlighted by a recent change in US accounting rules, provides a bright spot in an otherwise challenging earnings report for the electric vehicle giant, which saw its core automotive revenue decline for a second straight quarter.

According to its latest earnings report, Tesla’s Bitcoin stash has benefited significantly from the crypto market’s recent strength. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $118,000, a substantial increase from its price of $83,000 on April 1.

Based on data from BitcoinTreasuries.Net, which lists Tesla as holding 11,509 BTC, the automaker is the tenth largest publicly traded company to hold the crypto asset on its balance sheet.

This gain is now more visible to investors due to a new rule approved by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). Effective from the first quarter of 2025, the rule allows companies to report the fair market value of their crypto holdings each quarter.

Previously, corporate holders like Tesla were required to report their crypto assets at the lowest value they reached during the holding period, a method that often failed to reflect market recoveries.

This meant that even if Bitcoin’s price rebounded, those gains would not be reflected on the balance sheet.

Now, Tesla’s Bitcoin gains can be recognized each quarter, providing shareholders with a much clearer view of the asset’s performance.

While its crypto holdings have appreciated, Tesla’s core business is facing significant headwinds.

The company reported second-quarter revenue of $22.5 billion, which, according to one set of figures in the source text, missed analyst estimates of $22.74 billion.

Adjusted earnings per share of $0.40 also reportedly fell below the expected $0.43.

A clear point of weakness was the company’s automotive revenue, which fell by 16% year-over-year, marking the second consecutive quarterly decline.

This follows a report from early July, in which Tesla had already disclosed a 14% drop in its Q2 vehicle deliveries, to 384,000 units.

The company’s stock performance reflects these struggles. Shares of TSLA are down roughly 18% this year, a stark underperformance compared to other big tech names and the broader Nasdaq Composite, which is up about 9% in 2025.

Adding to its challenges, Tesla has delayed its affordable “Model 2” EV, leaving the field open for its rivals.

Chinese EV makers, in particular, are aggressively pushing cheaper, tech-laden vehicles that are steadily eating into Tesla’s global market share.

The sound of silence: Tesla’s unchanged Bitcoin treasury

Despite the significant market value of its crypto holdings, Tesla did not mention Bitcoin once in its second-quarter 2025 financial filing.

This silence is not new. The company has not added to or sold any of its Bitcoin for eight consecutive quarters.

According to the 10-Q form filed with the SEC on July 23, the company’s digital asset holdings remain unchanged at a cost basis of $184 million, the same value it reported in the first quarter of 2024, with no impairment losses or gains noted this time either.

Tesla had initially made a bold move into the crypto space, purchasing $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin in early 2021. Since then, however, it has sold off the majority of its holdings, with the last major sale occurring in the second quarter of 2022, when it offloaded roughly 75% of its BTC stash.

Despite the recent financial and political turbulence surrounding the company, Tesla appears to be holding firm on its current crypto position—for now.

But with mounting pressure from declining revenues and various reputational hits, investors will be watching closely for any future changes to the company’s digital asset strategy.

Following the earnings release, shares of TSLA were up a slight 0.71% in post-market trading, with the stock trading at $331.56.

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Bitcoin price prediction: $200K within reach once BTC clears overbought hurdle

  • Bitcoin (BTC) must clear the $120,000 resistance to resume upward momentum.
  • $200K in 2025 is unlikely without stronger volume support.
  • Long-term outlook remains bullish despite short-term hurdles.

Despite recent pullback after hitting a new all-time high, Bitcoin price predictions remain bullish amid a mix of political support, institutional interest, and speculative whale activity.

However, Bitcoin (BTC) will have to overcome the short-term resistance levels and overbought conditions that have temporarily capped its upward momentum.

BTC faces a key resistance hurdle at $120,000

At press time, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $118,584 after hitting a recent high of $122,838 on July 14.

And while it is still 77% up over the past year, momentum has slowed in recent sessions.

Notably, the pullback can be attributed to Bitcoin attempting to offload overbought signals on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), especially after repeated rejection at the $120,000 level.

Technical data reveals that the BTC/USDT pair is facing stiff resistance near this psychological threshold, where previous rallies have faltered.

Bitcoin facing resistance at $120,000

Despite this, the price remains comfortably above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which continues to serve as a dynamic support.

As long as Bitcoin maintains this position, the broader bullish trend remains intact.

Futures market signals continued consolidation

The Bitcoin Futures, Jul-2025 (BTC=F) mirrors the spot market’s hesitation.

Notably, the Bitcoin Futures’ price action, as evident on Yahoo Finance, remains locked between key pivots ($123,875 on the high end and $115,340 below).

The central pivot point of $120,615 has become a battleground, with neither bulls nor bears showing dominance.

A breakout above $126,015, which aligns with the upper channel trendline, could spark renewed buying interest and potentially send prices toward the $129,000–$132,000 range.

On the flip side, failure to reclaim $120,615 could expose the contract to a retracement toward $115,340, with downside risk extending to $112,000 if support breaks.

Volume profile data supports this indecisiveness. Most of the recent trading activity has clustered between $118,000 and $122,000, highlighting this zone as a significant liquidity area.

For any breakout to sustain, a corresponding uptick in volume must accompany it — something that has yet to materialise.

Whales stir, but caution remains

Fueling speculation further, a long-dormant Bitcoin whale recently moved 10,606 BTC, worth approximately $1.3 billion.

This reactivation, after years of inactivity, has raised questions about the whale’s intentions—be it profit-taking, institutional over-the-counter (OTC) deal prep, or strategic reallocation.

Such large-scale movements often impact market sentiment, particularly when they occur near price peaks.

If these funds are moved to exchanges, the threat of a large selloff increases.

Conversely, if transferred to cold storage, it may indicate confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. For now, the market remains watchful, not reactive.

Macro and political tailwinds support BTC’s growth

External forces are also adding fuel to Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

Trump Media and Technology Group recently acquired nearly $2 billion worth of Bitcoin using proceeds from stock sales and bonds.

This move coincides with increased US legislative support for crypto, including the passage of the GENIUS stablecoin bill and proposals for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Moreover, Bitcoin-backed borrowing is gaining traction. Xapo’s BTC-collateralised lending product recorded a 24% increase in Q2 usage, particularly in Europe and Latin America.

This trend suggests that holders are increasingly seeking liquidity solutions without having to sell their BTC, a dynamic that could reduce short-term selling pressure.

The $200k Bitcoin price prediction

Despite short-term hurdles, several analysts believe Bitcoin remains on a long-term path toward $200,000—just not in 2025.

Glassnode lead analyst James Check, in a recent interview with Pahueg at Less Noise More Signal, stated that while hitting $200,000 by year-end is “very improbable” due to insufficient buying volume, he fully expects BTC to exceed that mark within five years.

His outlook reflects broader sentiment: without follow-through volume, even strong rallies risk unravelling.

Others, including Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and Bernstein Research, maintain bullish 2025 targets based on anticipated institutional demand and the growing influence of Bitcoin ETFs.

However, analysts emphasise that BTC must first stabilise above $130K, $140K, and eventually $150K to credibly approach the $200K zone.

These milestones represent both technical and psychological resistance levels.

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