Bitcoin price forecast: White House crypto report omitted BTC reserve update

  • White House report omitted Bitcoin reserve update.
  • BTC holds steady near $118k with bullish technical signals.
  • ETF inflows and low selling pressure fuel price optimism.

Bitcoin (BTC) is entering August 2025 in a position of strength, despite growing anticipation over a missed opportunity in Washington.

On July 31, the White House released its long-awaited crypto policy report, but to the dismay of Bitcoin advocates, it made no substantive update on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative first announced in March.

Nevertheless, as the federal silence lingered, market indicators revealed that BTC could be gearing up for another bullish breakout.

This disconnect between regulatory direction and market performance is reshaping sentiment as traders weigh both political cues and on-chain metrics.

White House fails to clarify on BTC reserve

For months, Bitcoin supporters had looked forward to the July crypto policy report, especially after the Trump administration signalled a pro-Bitcoin stance earlier this year.

In March, an executive order established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, drawing comparisons to El Salvador’s bold accumulation strategy.

Hopes were high that the report would outline further steps to expand the reserve or detail future BTC acquisitions by the US government.

However, the 166-page report only briefly mentioned the reserve initiative. Tucked away in its final section, the mention served more as a recap than an expansion plan.

While the document introduced detailed proposals on regulation, banking access, and tax reform, it failed to address whether the US would actively purchase Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

The omission disappointed many in the crypto community. Several analysts called it a missed opportunity, especially given Bitcoin’s growing stature on the global asset leaderboard.

Still, others viewed the report’s tone as a step forward, with Bitcoin now being discussed independently from other digital assets — a clear sign of evolving recognition.

Bitcoin (BTC) is resilient despite political ambiguity

Even without direct government support through reserve accumulation, Bitcoin’s performance remains robust.

The cryptocurrency surged to a new all-time high of approximately $123,000 on July 14.

After a modest correction, it has been consolidating in a tight range between $117,000 and $118,000, currently trading at $118,383.

This steady behaviour comes even as the broader crypto market has experienced more dramatic swings.

The contrast has sparked speculation that Bitcoin’s price is preparing for a sharp move. Given the current low selling pressure and increased institutional interest, any upward shift could gather momentum quickly.

The GENIUS Act, signed recently into law, also added to Bitcoin’s tailwinds by making stablecoins more accessible.

Although rate cuts did not materialise in the latest Federal Reserve decision, the steady macro environment appears to be offering BTC room to rally independently.

ETF inflows and technical signals remain bullish

Market structure continues to favour the bulls. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw massive inflows in mid-July, with over $2 billion entering the market in just two days.

BlackRock’s IBIT alone now holds more than $80 billion in assets under management. These ETFs are now among the largest Bitcoin holders, owning around 1.4 million BTC — roughly 6.6% of the total supply.

On the technical side, the MVRV ratio currently sits near its 365-day average at 2.2, historically a level that precedes major rallies.

Bollinger Bands are tightening, and the RSI remains neutral at 42.65, suggesting there’s still room for price expansion.

Bitcoin price analysis

Going by the technical analysis, if BTC breaks above $119,900, a return to its all-time high could be swift.

Trade volume also supports this outlook. In the past 24 hours alone, Bitcoin’s volume rose by 12%, reaching $70.3 billion.

This growing activity, paired with strong holding behaviour among long-term investors, signals that upward pressure could intensify in the coming days.

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Michael Saylor’s Strategy snaps up 21K Bitcoin after 2025’s biggest IPO

  • Strategy bought 21K Bitcoin using $2.5B from the STRC stock sale.
  • STRC IPO is 2025’s biggest, offering a 9% monthly dividend.
  • Strategy now holds 628,791 BTC worth nearly $74 billion.

In a bold continuation of its aggressive Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation strategy, Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. has acquired 21,021 Bitcoin after executing what is now the largest initial public offering (IPO) in the United States in 2025.

The company, formerly known as MicroStrategy, announced on July 29 that it had completed the massive purchase using proceeds from its latest preferred stock offering.

This landmark move comes amid a relatively volatile Bitcoin market and further cements Strategy’s dominance as the world’s largest publicly traded corporate holder of the cryptocurrency.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy record IPO

Strategy raised a staggering $2.5 billion through the public sale of its new Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock, designated as STRC.

The stock was offered at $90 per share, significantly surpassing the company’s initial fundraising goal of $500 million.

According to the company’s press release, the offering drew strong investor demand, allowing Strategy to quintuple its original target.

With the offering successfully closed, Strategy quickly deployed $2.46 billion of the proceeds to purchase 21,021 Bitcoin at an average price of $117,256 per coin.

This acquisition marks the company’s largest Bitcoin buy since March 31 and brings its total holdings to 628,791 BTC — now valued at nearly $74 billion.

STRC set to begin trading on Nasdaq

The newly issued STRC preferred shares are expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on July 30.

Strategy describes STRC as the first exchange-listed perpetual preferred security from a Bitcoin treasury company that offers monthly, board-adjusted dividends to income-focused investors.

The initial dividend rate has been set at 9%.

STRC is the latest in a series of financial instruments created by Strategy to support its Bitcoin strategy.

Previous offerings include STRK (Strike), a convertible share with an 8% fixed dividend, STRF (Strife), a non-convertible preferred share with a 10% cumulative yield, and STRD (Stride), which offers a 10% non-cumulative dividend.

Together, these products reflect the company’s broader strategy of turning capital markets into a Bitcoin acquisition engine.

Timing the Dip, Saylor doubles down

Interestingly, Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase comes at a time when the cryptocurrency is trading below its all-time high.

Bitcoin reached a record $123,091.61 on July 14 but has since hovered between $117,000 and $119,000.

Strategy’s move is widely seen as an effort to capitalise on the pullback, with many analysts describing it as one of the biggest “buy-the-dip” moves in crypto history.

Michael Saylor, Strategy’s executive chairman and co-founder, remains one of Bitcoin’s most vocal proponents.

Saylor has previously stated that he believes Bitcoin could reach $13 million per coin by 2045.

His continued confidence in the digital asset, despite its short-term volatility, is evident in the scale and timing of this latest purchase.

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US SEC announces approval of in-kind redemptions for Bitcoin and Ether ETFs

  • US SEC has approved “in-kind” redemptions for Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, allowing direct BTC/ETH share creation.
  • This move aligns US policy with Hong Kong, which has allowed in-kind redemptions for its crypto ETFs since their launch.
  • SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda had previously criticized the initial cash-only approach, calling it a “troubling precedent.”

In a significant move that brings US policy more in line with international standards, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced on Wednesday that investors are now permitted to use “in-kind” redemptions for Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

This decision allows institutional traders to create and redeem ETF shares directly in the underlying crypto assets, a shift that is expected to significantly improve market efficiency.

The SEC’s decision lets institutional traders create and redeem ETF shares directly in BTC or ETH, a more efficient process that avoids the need for constant conversions to and from fiat currency.

However, for those watching the global development of crypto products, this is not a novel concept. In Hong Kong, this functionality has been available from the start.

In late 2023, during the early days of the regulatory process to bring crypto ETFs to market (which ultimately launched in April 2024), the city’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) mentioned in a circular that in-kind redemptions would be permitted.

Part of the reason for this was a technical one: in Hong Kong, ETF issuers were required to partner with licensed local crypto exchanges and use approved custody solutions.

This was not the case in Ontario, Canada, which had crypto ETFs first, nor was it initially in the US Additionally, Hong Kong did not experience the same prolonged and intense debate about the status of Ether as a potential security as was seen in the United States.

In contrast, US regulators wrestled for months with a host of concerns, including custody arrangements, anti-money laundering (AML) risks, and the potential for market manipulation.

While the SEC never issued an explicit ban on in-kind redemptions, ETF sponsors were required to remove this feature from their early filings.

The Commission initially favored a cash-only redemption model, viewing it as a more cautious first step, citing untested operational processes and uncertainty over how to securely settle large-scale crypto transfers.

Internal pushback and a ‘troubling precedent’

This cautious stance was not without its critics, even from within the SEC. SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda publicly criticized the agency’s approach during the landmark approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024.

He pointed out that commodity-based ETFs, such as those backed by physical gold, routinely use in-kind redemptions and questioned why crypto was being treated so differently.

Uyeda argued that the SEC had failed to adequately explain why it considered cash-only redemptions to be “non-novel,” despite the clear deviation from standard practice for similar exchange-traded products.

He warned that this lack of clear reasoning set a “troubling precedent” for future digital asset regulation. The latest decision to allow in-kind redemptions appears to be a tacit acknowledgment of these and other industry arguments.

The episode ultimately highlights how Hong Kong’s regulator managed to move with greater clarity and cohesion from the very beginning of its crypto ETF journey.

By enabling in-kind redemptions early on and pairing them with strict licensing and custody requirements, the SFC avoided the internal contradictions and policy drift that characterized the initial US rollout.

Broader markets and industry moves

This significant regulatory development comes amidst a mixed backdrop for global markets and continued deal-making in the crypto industry.

  • BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $117,500 after a modest rebound, but its momentum remains weak.

  • The market is contending with persistent ETF outflows, profit-taking from whales near the $118,000 level, and macroeconomic headwinds, including a firm US dollar and hawkish Fed expectations, which continue to limit its upside.

  • ETH: Ethereum is trading above $3,700. “Ethereum has proven in parallel with BTC since its inception to be the second most battle-tested network, and very likely institutions now see Ether the token as a formidable asymmetric bet alongside bitcoin,” said March Zheng, General Partner of Bizantine Capital, in a note to CoinDesk.

  • Gold: Gold rebounded to $3,334 on Tuesday, snapping a four-day losing streak ahead of a key Fed meeting, as traders priced in steady rates despite weak US job data.

  • Nikkei 255: Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed as US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that President Trump’s Friday tariff deadline will proceed as planned, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 flat at the open.

  • S&P 500: US stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 ending a six-day record streak as investors weighed corporate earnings, economic data, and the upcoming Fed rate decision.

In other industry news, cryptocurrency exchange Kraken is reportedly set to raise $500 million in a new funding round at a lofty $15 billion valuation, according to a report from The Information on Tuesday, which cited people familiar with the matter.

A spokesperson for Kraken declined to comment on the report. This news underscores the increased investor interest in cryptocurrency-focused companies, as the digital asset class benefits from growing regulatory clarity and rising institutional adoption.

This trend has also prompted other crypto firms, including custody startup BitGo and asset manager Grayscale, to pursue US listings.

Kraken has been actively investing capital to expand into various asset classes and grow its user base, and in March, the company announced it would acquire the futures trading platform NinjaTrader in a $1.5 billion deal.

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Bitcoin consolidates below $120K; Analysts say Ethereum flows will guide next market move

  • The crypto rally has stalled, with Bitcoin struggling to challenge the $120K level as institutional investors take profit.
  • Institutional ETF inflows into Bitcoin have plunged by 80% this week to just $496 million, a sign of cooling demand.
  • Market focus is now shifting to Ether (ETH), with its capital flows seen as the key to the market’s next move.

The powerful cryptocurrency rally is showing signs of fatigue, with Bitcoin struggling to challenge the $120,000 mark and key indicators pointing to a significant pullback from institutional investors.

As the market enters a tense consolidation phase, observers say the focus is now shifting to Ether (ETH) and whether it has the strength to bring fresh capital back into the fold and reignite the bullish momentum.

After briefly touching new all-time highs last week, the crypto market has entered a period of consolidation, and the underlying data is revealing some cracks in the bullish facade.

Glassnode data highlights a dramatic cooling of institutional interest, with inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs plunging by a staggering 80% this week to just $496 million.

This was accompanied by a sharp decline in ETF trading volume, which fell to $18.7 billion.

Bitcoin’s spot market sentiment is also showing signs of weakening.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI)—a popular technical indicator used to measure whether an asset is overbought or oversold—has been retreating sharply, underscoring a move away from previously overbought levels.

Taken together, these signals point to a clear, albeit perhaps temporary, institutional withdrawal from the market, raising questions about the potential for further downside.

A tense derivatives market: hedging and profit-taking on the rise

Trading firm QCP Capital has noted similar tensions in the derivatives market.

While funding rates for perpetual futures remain elevated at above 15%, suggesting that some traders are still maintaining aggressive long positions, recent flows indicate that large, sophisticated players are actively taking profits and hedging against potential downside.

QCP, in its recent note, pointed out that a major ETH call fly (a complex options strategy) was recently unwound, while sizeable BTC put options were bought for protection.

This is not the kind of market activity that typically supports a fresh leg up in a rally.

Despite these cautionary signals, QCP remains broadly constructive on the market’s outlook.

“Momentum, narrative strength, and macro tailwinds are still on our side,” the firm wrote in a recent update. “Hodlers and institutions will likely buy the dip, as we saw on Friday.”

The Ethereum litmus test: consolidation, capitulation, or the next leg up?

Market maker Enflux, however, isn’t sounding the alarm just yet. The firm views the current market conditions as a period of healthy consolidation, not a sign of impending capitulation.

They note that spot and perpetual futures markets are essentially treading water, not bleeding out.

The key to what comes next, according to Enflux, lies with Ethereum.

“How institutional ETH flows evolve, and whether capital re-engages with alts, would likely guide the next leg of market structure,” the firm said in a note to CoinDesk.

Ethereum now finds itself at the center of these diverging perspectives.

If institutional investors, who have been stepping back from Bitcoin, decide to rotate their capital back into the crypto market through ETH, it could reignite the altcoin cycle and lift the entire market.

If not, this period of consolidation could harden into something more prolonged and painful.

For now, the rally has paused. Glassnode sees fragility in the current market structure. Enflux sees neutrality. QCP sees a hedged optimism.

But all seem to agree that the next major breakout—or breakdown—will likely be sparked by how capital flows into and out of Ethereum materialize in the coming days and weeks.

Broader market snapshot

  • BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $118,000, consolidating between channel support at $114,000 and resistance near its all-time high of $123,000.

  • A recent liquidity sweep below $116,000 and renewed supply from a reactivated whale wallet have stalled its bullish momentum, according to CoinDesk’s market insights bot.

  • ETH: Ethereum is trading at $3,783, holding a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that technically targets the $4,300 level.

  • However, neutral funding rates near multi-year resistance suggest trader caution, even as institutional accumulation continues.

  • Gold: Gold fell to a near three-week low, with spot prices down 0.7% to $3,313.57.

  • A recent US-EU trade deal has boosted risk sentiment and temporarily reduced the demand for safe-haven assets ahead of a busy week for corporate earnings and a key US Federal Reserve meeting.

  • Nikkei 225: Asian markets opened lower, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.61% as traders adopted a wait-and-see mode to determine if more regional trade deals can be struck.

  • S&P 500: The S&P 500 ended Monday’s session nearly flat, as the positive news of a US-EU trade deal failed to ignite a significant new rally in U.S. equities.

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PayPal launches “Pay with Crypto” to help US merchants accept digital asset payments

  • Businesses can now accept over 100 cryptocurrencies with near-instant conversions.
  • Pay with Crypto reduces transaction costs by up to 90%.
  • US merchants are now connected to a $4T market and over 650M crypto users

Indeed, the latest stablecoin regulation in the United States was a game-changer.

Besides bolstering bullish momentum, the GENIUS Act has seen many firms stepping deeper into the future of fintech.

To support the increasing cryptocurrency adoption, PayPal has rolled out Pay with Crypto.

The new product will allow US-based merchants to accept payments in over 100 different coins, including stablecoins, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

The best part. Businesses can automatically convert the received tokens to stablecoin or fiat with a 0.99% transaction fee.

The new feature reduces the costs traditionally linked to cross-border transactions.

Most businesses that operate internationally suffer from high fees, complex banking requirements, and delays.

PayPal aims to solve this through a smoother payment process.

It also unlocks global growth with a borderless customer base.

PayPal CEO and President Alex Chriss says:

Businesses of all sizes face incredible pressure when growing globally, from increased costs for accepting international payments to complex integrations. Today, we’re removing these barriers and helping every business of every size achieve its goals.

Solving the international payment crisis

Businesses globally lose billions yearly through international payment models.

Delayed settlements, unpredictable exchange rates, and credit card fees have dented global trade.

That is where Pay with Crypto comes in.

PayPal introduces instant crypto-to-stablecoin or fiat conversion in an already colossal financial infrastructure.
Furthermore, merchants will not have to worry about the technical side of digital asset transactions.

PayPal promises to handle everything, including minimizing volatility, to ensure simplicity without compromising speed and security.
Also, merchants can use PayPal’s Pay with Crypto to increase their profit margins.

For instance, they will enjoy up to 90% lower processing fees compared to credit cards.

Also, businesses that hold their funds as PYUSD (PayPal’s stablecoin) will earn rewards.

Chriss added:

Imagine a shopper in Guatemala buying a special gift from a merchant in Oklahoma City. Using PayPal’s open platform, the business can accept crypto, pay lower fees, and grow their business – all in one simple step.

What’s next?

All merchants in the US will access PayPal’s Pay with Crypto feature in the coming weeks, allowing them to receive payments in over 100 supported digital tokens.

Businesses can link with trusted wallets like Coinbase, Exodus, OKX, and MetaMask to enjoy instant conversion from crypto to stablecoins like USDT or fiat.

United States citizens will soon use digital currencies like ETH, BTC, and SOL to pay for goods and services.

Meanwhile, PayPal is establishing itself as a pioneer amid growing crypto adoption.

Recently, it integrated with Arbitrum to support PYUSD growth.

Moreover, OKX tapped PayPal to simplify cryptocurrency purchases across Europe.

These developments come as digital currencies gain ground in the financial landscape.

The global crypto market cap hovers at $3.93 trillion after correcting from recent highs above $4 trillion.

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