Kategorie: Bitcoin News

• The company lifted its 2025 operating income guidance to $40 million.
• A non-cash Bitcoin impairment of $680 million to $700 million is expected for 2025.
• Metaplanet projected a $632 million ordinary loss and $491 million net loss for 2025.

Metaplanet, a Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury company, has raised its revenue and operating income forecasts for 2025 and issued much higher guidance for 2026, even as it flagged a large non-cash Bitcoin write-down that is set to dominate its annual results.

In a notice released on Monday, the company said its Bitcoin income generation business is expected to deliver stronger-than-expected performance, particularly in the final quarter of the year.

However, Metaplanet also projected a steep ordinary loss and net loss for 2025, driven largely by accounting adjustments tied to Bitcoin’s valuation at year-end.

The company is scheduled to file its full-year results on Feb. 16.

Revenue upgrade driven by Bitcoin income generation

Metaplanet said it now expects 2025 revenue of 8.905 billion Japanese yen, or around $58 million, based on its updated guidance.

The company also raised its operating income forecast to $40 million, signalling improved performance at the operating level despite broader market volatility affecting its holdings.

Management said Q4 2025 revenue from its Bitcoin income generation business “is expected to significantly exceed initial projections,” which led it to lift full-year revenue guidance for that segment to about $55 million.

That compares with around $40 million previously announced, showing a sharp upgrade in the contribution from its Bitcoin-linked revenue stream.

Large impairment set to drive headline loss

Even with the stronger operating forecasts, Metaplanet expects to report a deep annual loss for 2025.

The company projected an ordinary loss of $632 million and a net loss of $491 million. These figures are largely attributed to a Bitcoin impairment loss estimated at roughly $680 million to $700 million, which is expected to be recognised in its year-end reporting.

Metaplanet explained that the impairment is a “non-cash accounting adjustment reflecting period-end price fluctuations” and said it has no direct impact on its cash flows or day-to-day operations.

The notice linked the impairment to quarter-end mark-to-market accounting treatment and referenced Bitcoin holdings valued at year-end prices, with Bitcoin shown at $87,876 in the disclosure.

BTC holdings and treasury metrics expand sharply

Metaplanet also reported rapid growth in its Bitcoin treasury business during 2025, underlining how the company has built up its exposure to Bitcoin while developing income generation activities around its holdings.

BTC holdings rose from 1,762 BTC at the end of 2024 to 35,102 BTC at the end of 2025, showing a significant increase in the company’s balance sheet allocation.

It also reported BTC yield per diluted share of 568% for the year. The company uses this metric to measure how much Bitcoin backing each diluted share has increased, offering a per-share view of its Bitcoin accumulation.

While the impairment is expected to weigh heavily on reported net results, Metaplanet’s updated figures suggest it is still expanding its treasury position and Bitcoin-linked operations at a pace.

2026 guidance rises but earnings remain uncertain

For 2026, Metaplanet forecast revenue of around $103 million and operating income of $73 million, representing a sharp step up from its 2025 targets.

The company said almost all of its 2026 revenue is expected to come from the Bitcoin income generation business, reinforcing the segment’s central role in its business model.

Metaplanet also projected selling, general and administrative expenses of about $29 million for 2026 as it ramps up operations.

However, it said it will not provide guidance for ordinary income or net income for 2026 due to the difficulty of forecasting Bitcoin prices, signalling that future reported earnings could remain volatile even if operating performance strengthens.

The company added that it publishes daily data on its BTC holdings, unrealised gains and losses, and related metrics, offering investors regular visibility into how price swings affect its treasury position.

The post Metaplanet boosts forecasts despite Bitcoin write-down clouding annual results appeared first on CoinJournal.

• Bitcoin fell to lows of $87,800 on Tuesday before bouncing to above $89,000.
• Losses for BTC came as gold hit new record high above $4,870.
• Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz says bulls need to take out bears around $100,000-$103,000.

Bitcoin dipped to around $87,800 on Tuesday, breaking lower as risk assets struggled.

However, amid waning investor confidence in the bellwether digital asset, gold has surged to new record highs.

Industry heavyweight Mike Novogratz says the flagship digital asset needs to reclaim the $100,000 mark to resume its uptrend.

Bitcoin price bounces off $87,800 low

Broader market uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions, has kept Bitcoin below the psychologically important $100,000 level.

In the latest session, the cryptocurrency slipped under $90,000, with data from CoinMarketCap showing intraday lows of $87,814 on major exchanges.

Bitcoin’s rally earlier this year was driven by strong institutional demand, but that momentum has eased in recent weeks.

In contrast, gold has climbed to fresh record highs above $4,870, reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset amid heightened geopolitical risks and ongoing macroeconomic pressures.

Mike Novogratz, the outspoken CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings, weighed in on Bitcoin’s current woes via a post on X.

Novogratz, a veteran Wall Street trader turned crypto evangelist,  notes that Bitcoin could regain its upward momentum if bulls reclaim the $100,000-$103,000 level.

“The gold price is telling us we are losing reserve currency status at an accelerating rate.   The long bond selling off is not a good sign either,” he posted on X. “BTC is disappointing as it is still being met with selling.  I will reiterate it has to take out 100-103k to regain its upward trend. I think it will, in time.”

Bitcoin price technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the declines have pushed prices beneath the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level calculated from its April low of $74,400 to October’s record peak of $126,198.

Bears have also breached the key support zone at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $92,066 and a prior upper consolidation boundary near $90,000.

Other technical signals reinforcing the pessimistic outlook include the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which currently stands at 42.

Notably, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has also flashed a bearish crossover, suggesting sellers are in control.

Volume profiles indicate thinning buying interest, which could exacerbate downside risks if headwinds persist.

A sustained close below $87,700 could accelerate the downturn toward the lower channel boundary at $85,450.

The demand reload zone aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

The post Bitcoin touches lows of $87,800 as gold hits new record high appeared first on CoinJournal.

• Crypto Fear and Greed Index hit “greed” for the first time since the $19B October liquidation event.
• Bitcoin rallied to a two-month high above $97K, helping lift overall crypto market sentiment.
• On-chain data shows retail holders exiting, while declining exchange balances signal reduced sell pressure.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has moved back into “greed” territory for the first time since a $19 billion liquidation event in October rattled digital asset markets, signaling an improvement in investor sentiment as Bitcoin staged a strong recovery.

In an update on Thursday, the index posted a reading of 61, reflecting growing optimism after weeks spent in “fear” and “extreme fear.”

Just a day earlier, the index stood at 48, placing it in the “neutral” zone.

The shift marks a notable change in mood following months of heightened risk aversion among crypto traders.

Sentiment rebounds after October liquidation shock

Crypto investor sentiment collapsed on Oct. 11, when $19 billion was liquidated from the market, sending traders fleeing from altcoins and driving widespread pessimism.

In the weeks that followed, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index recorded some of its lowest readings on record, falling into the low double digits multiple times in November and December.

The index is closely watched by market participants as a barometer of sentiment, helping traders assess whether conditions favor buying, selling, or remaining on the sidelines.

It compiles data from several indicators, including price volatility of major cryptocurrencies, trading volume, market momentum, Google search trends, and overall sentiment on social media platforms.

The return to “greed” suggests that the sharp caution seen late last year has begun to ease, even though markets remain well below the levels that previously triggered euphoric sentiment.

Bitcoin rally lifts overall market mood

Improving sentiment has coincided with a strong rebound in Bitcoin prices.

Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has climbed from $89,799 to reach a two-month high of $97,704 on Wednesday, according to data from CoinGecko.

The move marks the first time Bitcoin has traded above $97,000 since Nov. 14.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $96,218, up by 1% in the last 24 hours.

At that time, however, the Fear and Greed Index was firmly in “extreme fear” territory, as Bitcoin was sliding sharply from all-time highs.

The latest rally has helped stabilize broader market confidence, even as traders remain cautious about sustainability.

While the index’s return to “greed” indicates growing optimism, it remains well below levels typically associated with excessive risk-taking.

On-chain signals show retail exiting positions

Despite the improving price action, some on-chain indicators suggest that retail participation has declined in recent days. Analysts at market intelligence platform Santiment said in an X post on Wednesday that Bitcoin holders have been reducing their exposure.

According to Santiment, over the last three days, there has been a net drop of 47,244 Bitcoin holders, indicating that “retail had been dropping out due to FUD & impatience.”

“When non-empty wallets drop, it’s a sign that the crowd is dropping out, a good sign. Similarly, less supply on exchanges decreases the risk of a selloff,” the analysts said.

They added that “This price bounce has also been supported by a 7-month low 1.18 million Bitcoin on exchanges.”

A lower amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges is generally viewed as a bullish indicator, as it suggests investors are storing assets in private wallets and are less inclined to sell quickly.

Taken together, the rebound in sentiment, rising Bitcoin prices, and declining exchange balances point to a cautiously improving outlook for the crypto market, even as investors continue to weigh lingering risks.

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