Ether price forecast: ETH eyes further recovery as price nears $4,200

TL;DR

  • ETH is up 8.5% in the last 24 hours and is now trading above $4,100.
  • The coin could extend its recovery if the daily candle closes above $4,232. 

ETH tops $4,100 after Friday’s flash crash

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is recovering excellently following Friday’s crash. The market crash saw ETH briefly touch the $3,500 region as it lost over 30% of its value within an hour.

However, the coin has now added 8.5% to its value over the last 24 hours and is now trading at $4,165 per coin. The crash was caused by President Trump announcing new tariffs against Chinese imports.

While commenting on the recent market events, Nick Forster, Founder at leading onchain options platform, Derive.xyz, stated that, on the day of the crash, options skew dropped sharply for both BTC and ETH, reflecting a rush into downside protection. Skew measures the relative demand for calls versus puts; a more negative value indicates higher demand for puts.

“Volatility spiked sharply across BTC and ETH markets. Typically, sharp selloffs only lift short-dated volatility (1-7 DTE) as traders expect near-term turbulence to subside. However, Friday’s downturn drove elevated volatility across all expiries, signaling expectations of sustained turbulence and a choppy road ahead,” Forster added. 

ETH could surge higher if the daily candle closes above $4,232 resistance

The ETH/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and inefficient thanks to Friday’s price action. ETH failed to find support around the daily level at $4,488 last week and dumped by over 20% on Friday. However, it has recovered slightly, closing above $4,150. At press time, ETH hovers at around $4,160.

ETH/USD 4H Chart

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s MACD still supports the bearish view but could change soon as the buying pressure increases. The RSI of 54 is above the neutral 50, suggesting that buyers are regaining control of the market. 

If ETH continues its recovery and closes above the daily resistance at $4,232, the coin could surge higher towards the next key resistance level at $4,488. However, failure to overcome the $4,232 resistance could see ETH extend its decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,593 in the coming days.

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Crypto Black Friday explained: How $19.5 billion vanished in hours

  • Bitcoin plunged 8.4% as liquidity collapsed across exchanges.
  • Oracle glitches triggered cross-liquidations and temporary de-pegs.
  • The crash exposed major vulnerabilities in crypto infrastructure.

On 10–11 October 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced one of its sharpest collapses in years — an event the community has dubbed Crypto Black Friday.

In just a few hours, more than $19.5 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, sending Bitcoin down by 8.4% and shaking investor confidence worldwide.

What began as a reaction to the US’s 100% tariff announcement on Chinese goods quickly revealed much deeper cracks in the system — showing how automated trading, thin liquidity, and structural weaknesses combined to trigger a chain reaction across exchanges.

What triggered the sell-off?

The first signs of the crash appeared after President Trump confirmed steep new tariffs on Chinese imports, fuelling fears of higher inflation and tighter Federal Reserve policy.

Traders rushed to unwind risky positions, leading to rapid liquidations in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Wrapped Beacon ETH (WBETH), and Binance-Smart-based Solana (BNSOL).

But geopolitical panic alone doesn’t explain how billions disappeared so quickly. Analysts say technical and structural factors amplified the event.

Liquidity across exchanges was unusually low, and some Binance users reported frozen accounts during the sell-off.

High-leverage looped loans and a temporary de-pegging of the USDE stablecoin made matters worse, creating a cascade of forced sales. Binance later confirmed system issues and offered compensation to affected users.

How technical flaws magnified the collapse

According to a BeinCrypto report, during the sell-off, CoinGlass — a popular analytics site — faced a sophisticated proxy attack that briefly disabled access to its data and services.

This interruption added to market confusion just as traders were scrambling for real-time information.

At the same time, a series of unusually large transactions occurred moments before several oracle updates.

These oracles — the systems that feed real-world prices into blockchain smart contracts — briefly mispriced certain assets, triggering automatic liquidations across multiple trading pairs.

The mispricing also caused some stablecoins to lose their peg temporarily, creating brief windows where arbitrage bots and high-frequency traders could profit.

Within minutes, millions of dollars moved between exchanges as automated systems responded to the volatility, deepening the market crash.

Was it a coordinated attack?

Not everyone believes this was an organic crash. Some analysts argue that the patterns of trades and timing of oracle updates suggest deliberate manipulation.

Data showed that the most extreme de-pegs affected pairs with known update schedules, while large-scale short positions were placed just before liquidation cascades began.

This has led to speculation that certain market actors may have exploited the structure of the crypto market itself — using automated systems and leverage mechanisms to engineer volatility.

The idea is that, rather than hacking wallets or stealing funds, attackers could manipulate the market by exploiting predictable behaviours in oracles, exchanges, and algorithms.

Still, other experts maintain that this was simply an overleveraged market reacting to stress.

When traders take on too much debt and sentiment shifts suddenly, cascading liquidations can happen without any external interference.

The synchronised nature of the event across multiple exchanges, however, continues to fuel debate.

What the crash revealed about crypto markets

Crypto Black Friday has exposed how fragile the digital asset ecosystem remains despite its growing size.

With $19.5 billion wiped out in hours, the event showed how quickly risk can spread when systems rely heavily on leverage, automated trading, and opaque liquidity pools.

Exchanges such as Binance have since launched internal audits and pledged to improve transparency, but experts warn that these are short-term fixes.

The real challenge lies in redesigning core systems — including how leverage is managed, how oracles feed data, and how liquidity is distributed across markets.

The incident has renewed calls for better on-chain oversight and global standards for crypto risk management.

For a trillion-dollar market to mature, analysts say it must balance innovation with stronger safeguards against both systemic shocks and sophisticated manipulation.

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Bitcoin, Ethereum rebound following ‘largest single-day wipeout in crypto history’

  • The crypto market suffered its “largest single-day wipeout in crypto history.”
  • Nearly $20 billion in liquidations were triggered on Friday alone.
  • The crash was sparked by President Trump’s new tariff threats against China.

It was a brutal and historic bloodbath, a sudden and violent purge that resulted in what one analyst has called “the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history.”

A promising “Uptober” rally was brought to a catastrophic halt on Friday as a geopolitical bombshell from the White House sent a shockwave of fear through the global markets, triggering a cascade of liquidations that erased nearly $20 billion from the digital asset space in a single day.

The carnage was swift and merciless. Over a harrowing seven-hour period, Bitcoin plunged from the relative safety of $121,000 to a grim low of $109,000.

The pain was felt across the market, with Ethereum dipping to $3,686 and Solana touching just above $173.

But the real story was in the leveraged positions that were being systematically annihilated.

The volatile session triggered a “flash crash of liquidations,” wiping out almost 7 billion across all markets within a single hour, with a staggering 5.5 billion of that coming from bullish long positions, Sean Dawson, head of research at Dervie, told Decrypt.

By the time the dust settled, the majority of the day’s nearly 20 billion in liquidations—a colossal 16.7 billion—had come from longs, according to CoinGlass data.

The presidential spark: A tariff threat ignites a firestorm

This was not a crypto-specific crisis; it was a contagion of fear sparked by the highest office in the United States.

The sell-off across both crypto and traditional markets followed President Trump’s stunning announcement that he was canceling a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and had ordered a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese imports.

The threat, which Trump himself acknowledged could be “potentially painful” for Americans, immediately sent risk assets into a tailspin.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq dipped 3.6 percent, the S&P 500 fell 2.7 percent, and the Dow dropped 1.9 percent, a clear sign that the market was taking the president’s words as a declaration of a new and more aggressive phase in the trade war.

The aftermath: A textbook relief rally

But just as quickly as the storm descended, a fragile calm began to return.

By the weekend, China appeared to soften its stance, and a market that had been gripped by panic began to recalibrate, with analysts suggesting the brutal rout may have been a brief, if violent, geopolitical overreaction.

Now, a powerful rebound is underway. “What we’re seeing is a textbook relief rally,” Dean Serroni, CEO of crypto investment manager Merkle Tree Capital, told Decrypt.

The recovery has been as swift as the crash was brutal. Bitcoin has surged 5% on the day to retake the $115,100 level.

Ethereum is leading the charge with an impressive 10.5% jump to $4,138, while major altcoins like Solana, BNB, and Dogecoin are soaring with double-digit gains.

Serroni explained the powerful bounce as “pure short-covering and mean reversion after the market overreacted to Trump’s tariff bombshell.”

He pointed to the “thin” selling pressure and the dramatic reset in open interest across derivatives markets, a sign that the carnage was primarily a technical event, a violent purge of “overleveraged derivatives traders” rather than a fundamental shift in the market’s long-term outlook.

His final verdict was a succinct and powerful summary of a wild and historic week: “This rout was a geopolitical knee-jerk, not a structural break.”

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