BTC vs BTC miners: H.C. Wainwright analyst picks a side

  • H.C. Wainwright analyst says mining stocks are better pick than BTC.
  • Mike Colonnese explained his view in a research note on Tuesday.
  • Bitcoin gained 40% in January, mining stocks 124% on average.

Mining stocks are significantly better than direct exposure for investors wanting to fully benefit from a further potential increase in bitcoin prices.

Mining stocks are massively outperforming BTC

Bitcoin investors were a happy lot last month as prices jumped nearly 40%. But Mike Colonnese says the gain was rather trivial compared to a whopping 124% increase on average in mining stocks.

More importantly, the analyst expects that outperformance to continue moving forward. His research note reads:

We expect improved mining economics, driven by higher BTC prices and moderating energy costs to drive upward estimate revisions for the group throughout 2023 and see continued multiple expansion for mining stocks.

Colonnese expects bitcoin prices to particularly celebrate once the U.S. Federal Reserve slams the breaks on raising rates and decides to pivot.

Colonnese names a ‘must-own’ mining stock

The H.C. Wainwright analyst also noted that mining stock continue to build on their gains even though bitcoin pared back a little over the past week.

Part of his bullish view on BTC miners is based also on their monthly production update. Three of them, in particular – Marathon Digital, CleanSpark, and Cipher Mining recently reported a sharp increase in the number of bitcoin they minted in January.

Consequently, Colonnese upgraded CIFR to “buy” this morning and said its shares could climb further to $3.0. That suggests about a 75% upside from here.

In January, Cipher Mining Inc improved its hash rate by roughly 48% versus the prior month. Colonnese dubbed it a “must-own” mining stock in his research note today.

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Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are flipping bullish: Bitfinex report

  • Bitfinex market report points to bullish metrics for BTC
  • Supply in Profit, Bitcoin Realised HODL (RHODL) Multiple and Reserve Risk ratio are all flashing green.
  • Bitcoin has traded to above $23k again after slipping on Monday following broader market reaction to economic news.

Bitcoin is trading around $23,360 at the time of writing, about 2.4% up in the past 24 hours as cryptocurrencies flash green on Tuesday amid an improving market sentiment.

For the world’s leading cryptocurrency by market cap, it appears on-chain metrics are ticking further north to suggest a strengthening bullish case.

Supply in Profit up 20%, points to buy signal

According to analysts at Bitfinex, one of Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics suggesting fresh upside momentum is likely the Supply in Profit indicator. Data shows bulls look to have successfully absorbed selling pressure as short-term and some long-term HODLers turn profitable.

An observation of the metric on the 90-day time frame highlights a 20% jump for the “supply in profit” chart in January 2023, the analysts wrote in the report released on Monday.

This implies that larger and longer-term investors currently hold profitable on-paper spot positions. This is healthy for the latter half of a bear market as a sustained 30-day uptrend after an extensive downtrend on this indicator has historically provided a good buy signal for the following two years,” the Bitfinex team noted.

As far as markets are concerned, the above scenario doesn’t mean that the crypto market is set for an “up-only” move. However, the outlook does suggest bulls have an upper hand in the spot markets, a scenario that’s historically reflective of “late bear and early bull markets.”

The Bitcoin Realised HODL (RHODL) Multiple, historically also bullish, has also been in an uptrend. According to data, the RHODL Multiple has remained positive over a 90-day window, to also suggest profitability for HODLers.

Key metrics suggest a 10x jump for BTC price

Apart from the 90-day EMA, other technical indicators flipping green include the net adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio. Per on-chain data, the indicator is currently above one, which suggests that net sales across the Bitcoin market are profitable.

Also, the Realised Profit to Losses (RPLR) ratio is above zero, which also confirms the profitable selling observed in past few weeks. The metric is currently moving towards 0.2, a reading comparable to the RPLR measure when Bitcoin price fell to lows of $3,600 in 2019. After the RPLR hit 0.2, BTC price flipped green and rallied 19x, hitting its all-time high in November 2021.

Bitcoin Realized Profit Loss Ratio chart by Glassnode

With the metric approaching this ratio when Bitcoin fell to lows of $16,000, the possibility of another 10x rally could see BTC target highs of $160,000 over the next two-three years.

Bitcoin’s reserve risk ratio suggests HODLer conviction is high

Looking at a longer time frame, Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are also pointing to a bullish outlook. One odf these technical indicators is the Reserve Risk ratio.

According to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, Bitcoin’s reserve risk ratio has fallen to its all-time low. This puts the metric lower than when markets bottomed in 2019 or 2020, Bitfinex analysts pointed out.

As the ratio is a cyclical oscillator that highlights price vs. HODLer conviction, with incentive to sell factored against opportunity cost, a very low ratio translates to a higher conviction among investors.

A positive outlook for Bitcoin is also seen in the Market Value Realised Value (MVRV) ratio, which has recovered and has often coincided with historically bullish returns.

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UK releases consultation paper for its Digital Pound project

  • The Bank of England and HM Treasury published the consultation paper for a Digital Pound on Tuesday, 7 February 2023.
  • The central bank digital currency (CBDC) is envisioned as digital money to work alongside, not replace cash and that households and businesses can use in their everyday life.
  • Yield App CIO Lucas Kiely says a digital pound could support, rather than pose a threat to crypto.

The UK’s plan to launch a digital pound has entered another phase with the Bank of England and HM Treasury publishing a consultation paper on the project.

BoE’s publication on Tuesday highlighted the digital pound as potentially a “new form of money for households and businesses.” The paper has been presented to parliament by the UK’s Economic Secretary to the Treasury.

While the central bank acknowledges that the launch of a digital pound could take time, it does note that preparatory work in getting the necessary infrastructure in place is justified.

A digital pound would be a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) – digital money for use by households and businesses for their everyday payments, issued by the central bank, the Bank of England. The Bank of England (the Bank) and His Majesty’s Treasury (HM Treasury) plan to accelerate our work on the technology and policy architecture for a digital pound,” reads part of the paper released on Tuesday.

CBDCs like digital pound will support, not kill, crypto

The UK’s plans for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) come as the push for creation and deployment of CBDCs continues to gather momentum. It also follows regulatory attention on crypto after a year of a brutal winter and spectacular collapses of several major cryptocurrency projects.

But despite all the up and downs in the sector, the launch of CBDCs like the digital pound does not spell doom for crypto, Lucas Kiely, the CIO of digital wealth platform Yield App told CoinJournal in a commentary.

According to him, CBDCs are inevitable in a world that’s increasingly becoming digitized, with governments keen to benefit from the growing mass adoption of blockchain technology.

If all payments are made on-chain and governments can track stable digital currency then it solves a number of issues. Tax avoidance becomes harder, welfare payments become more straightforward, and governments can control what those welfare payments are used for.

Benefits to the public, including things like faster payment systems and accessible credit histories could of course be negated by potential downsides such as the government seizing assets, monitoring private spending, and so forth. But Kiely is optimistic about the positive impact CBDCs could have on the financial sector and crypto.

According to the details in the consultation paper, the digital pound will not replace the UK cash, but be issued and used alongside it.

In particular, the Bank of England sees a digital pound as a project that could help preserve the usefulness of central bank money in a global financial ecosystem that keeps changing. Apart from safeguarding the country’s monetary sovereignty, a digital pound could help bolster competition and innovation within the UK’s payments industry.

While crypto is making great leaps forward, it is still operating somewhat in the shadows,” the Yield App CIO noted, adding that integration across the broader financial sector could come with even more positives than negatives. He added:

Rather than pose a threat to the development of crypto, by spurring the involvement of the traditional financial sector in on-chain finance, CBDCs may clear the path to crypto adoption and growth.

The Bank of England and HM Treasury’s document is seeking public commentary on the project and will form the basis of the next step that includes a pilot phase. Once launched, the central bank plans to limit individual holdings to £10,000- £20,000 to prevent “hoarding” of the CBDC.

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Lido DAO’s LDO price just went parabolic: 12% gains possible

  • Lido DAO price jumped after the developers announced V2 upgrade.

  • The new upgrade will be implemented ahead of Ethereum Shanghai upgrade.

Lido DAO LDO price jumped to its highest point since January 24 after the developers unveiled the next steps towards Ethereum’s Shanghai upgrade. LDO crypto jumped to a high of $2.63, which was about 40% above the lowest level this year. 

Lido unveils V2 plans

Lido has grown to become the biggest player in decentralized finance (DeFi) with a total value locked (TVL) of over $8.7 billion. Most of these assets are in Ethereum, followed by Polygon, Solana, Polkadot, and Kusama. Lido Staked ETH has a total market cap of over $5.6 billion. 

LDO price has done well in the past few months because of the upcoming Shanghai upgrade that will see people be able to withdraw their staked ETH. In a statement, the developers said that they will implement Lido V2 as the road to decentralization continues. It will be the biggest upgrade in the project’s history.

As part of the upgrade, Lido will introduce staking router and withdrawals. With the staking router, anyone will be able to develop on-ramps for new Node Operators. The goal of this upgrade will be to create a more diversified validator ecosystem.

The next part will be on withdrawals, where stETH holders will be able to withdraw from Lido on a 1:1 ratio. This feature will have two modes: Turbo and Bunker modes. Turbo’s withdrawals will be implemented more quickly by automating tooling for node operators and the protocol. The bunker mode will be implemented in case of catastrophic situations.

Therefore, the next few weeks will be crucial for Lido and LDO prices. Analysts expect that the Shanghai upgrade will happen in March or early April. Because Ethereum is the most dominant part of Lido, we could see more activity before then. As we wrote here, Lido will distribute LDO rewards via Aave v3 liquidity pools.

Lido DAO price forecast

LDO/USD chart by TradingView

LDO crypto price jumped to a high of $2.65 on Tuesday, which was the highest point since January 24. As it rose, it moved above the important resistance point at $2.52, the highest point on February 2. It also moved above the 50-period moving average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the overbought level.

Therefore, the outlook of Lido is bullish, with the next reference level being at $2.85, the highest point this year. This price is about 12% above the current level. A break below the support at $2.30 will invalidate the bullish view.

How to buy Lido DAO

As LDO is such a new asset, it’s yet to be listed on major exchanges. You can still purchase LDO using a DEX (decentralised exchange) though, which just means there are a few extra steps. To buy LDO right now, follow these steps:

1. Buy ETH on a regulated exchange or broker, like eToro ›

We suggest eToro because it’s one of the world’s leading multi-asset trading platforms, an exchange and wallet all-in-one with some of the lowest fees in the industry. It’s also beginner-friendly, and has more payment methods available to users than any other available service.

2. Send your ETH to a compatible wallet like Trust Wallet or MetaMask

You’ll need to create your wallet, grab your address, and send your coins there.

3. Connect your wallet to the 1Inch DEX

Head to 1Inch, and ‚connect‘ your wallet to it.

4. You can now swap your ETH for LDO

Now that you’re connected, you’ll be able to swap for 100s of coins including LDO.

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Lido to distribute LDO rewards via Aave v3 liquidity pools

  • Lido DAO community has approved by over 99% of vote to allow for staking rewards distribution across Aave v3 liduidity pools.
  • LDO rewards will now be distributed across Ethereum, Arbitrum and Optimism blockchains.
  • Users earn rewards when they stake Ethereum (ETH) on Lido.

Lido, the liquid staking protocol for Proof-of-Stake (PoS) coins, will now distribute staking rewards in LDO,  the native LidoDAO token through three major Aave v3 liquidity pools.

The distribution across Aave v3 is for staked Ether (stETH) liquidity pools across Ethereum, Arbitrum and Optimism.

Aave v3 to distribute Lido staking rewards

The news follows a community vote on an LDO rewards distribution proposal, which garnered 99% of the support. With this development, every LDO “emission admin” on the three blockchain networks will have access to a wallet that’s controlled by Lido.

Aave, which offers a smart contracts-enabled non-custodial liquidity protocol, recently deployed its v3 on Ethereum. The DeFi platform had already launched the Aave v3 protocol on layer-2 blockchains Arbitrum and Optimism.

In 2022, Lido DAO announced it would offer stETH rewards to liquidity providers on both Arbitrum and Optimism as part of the effort to spur further adoption of the staking protocol. 

Lido users can stake any amount of ETH and earn daily rewards, with LDO then allowing users to participate across the DeFi ecosystem even as their staked ETH remains locked. Notably, Ethereum will allow the withdrawal of staked ETH after its upcoming network upgrade dubbed “Shanghai.” The hard fork is expected in early March this year.

Between 30 Januaryand 6 February, 2023, the amount of ETH staked on Lido surpassed 5.05 million, with over 1.95 million LDO rewards already live in February. According to the Lido team, this follows a spike in new lending pools on Ethereum.

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