Monat: Januar 2023

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DXY vs. Bitcoin/USD – a lead-lag analysis

  • DXY peaked at +20% in early October 2022
  • BTC/USD bottomed at -75% in late 2023
  • Lead-lag analysis suggests BTC/USD might see another +4% to close the gap

For years, cryptocurrency investors have had one big wish – Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, to gain institutional adoption. In time, adoption came, but it changed the game’s rules for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. 

The more institutional investment into cryptocurrencies, the more the leading cryptocurrencies became correlated with the overall financial markets. Also, they started to react to economic data just as, say, the US dollar did, or the US stock market.

In other words, risk sentiment, on or off, dominates classic financial markets but also the cryptocurrency market. This is where we are today – so what happens next for cryptocurrencies? Where should Bitcoin go? 

If the game’s rules have changed, one should look at different ways to evaluate the cryptocurrency market. One way is to interpret the Dollar index’s movement over the past year and compare it with BTC/USD. If the dollar was responsible for the late Bitcoin movements, should the dollar answer where Bitcoin goes next? 

Lead-lag analysis suggests Bitcoin may rally some more

The US dollar rallied last year on the back of the Federal Reserve embarking on a tightening cycle. The interest rate on the main reserve currency has reached 4.5%, and still, investors are looking for at least another hike. 

Therefore, the dollar’s rally in 2022 should not have surprised anyone. It was a general move higher, with the greenback gaining against all its peers. 

Bitcoin could not have acted differently. Despite the general belief that Bitcoin should offer protection against inflation, it failed to do so, just like gold did. 

So the dollar’s strength meant Bitcoin’s weakness. As such, it means that the dollar leads, so a close look at the dollar index (DXY) might help. 

BTCUSD chart by TradingView

Focus on the chart above. It shows the DXY and the BTC/USD since the start of 2022. 

While the DXY peaked at about +20%, Bitcoin fell by about -75%. The interesting part is that Bitcoin kept falling after the dollar peaked. 

Therefore, the recent bounce from -75% to -50% puts Bitcoin just slightly above the level where the DXY peaked. Considering the recent weakness in the DXY, we might conclude that BTC/USD has more room to the upside (about 4%-5%) to catch up with the latest developments in the DXY. 

The post DXY vs. Bitcoin/USD – a lead-lag analysis appeared first on CoinJournal.

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Audius price is up by 95% in 7 days: brace for a major pullback

  • Audius price has been in a strong bullish momentum this week.

  • It is soaring after the latest listing in Coinbase.

  • Historically, these exchange-linked rallies don’t last long.

Audius has had a spectacular week but history suggests that the price action could unwind soon. AUDIO, the network’s token could soon nosedive. It soared to a high of $0.366 on Tuesday, its highest level since August last year. According to CoinMarketCap, the coin’s market cap has surged to more than $308 million. 

Why a pullback is imminent

The main reason why the AUDIO price has jumped sharply this week is that it was finally launched in Coinbase, the second-biggest crypto exchange in the world. This means that the company’s millions of customers can now buy and hold the coin. Also, they tend to rise as the number of people talking about their rise. That’s why we are talking about Audius today.

Historically, cryptocurrencies tend to jump after being listed by one or more major exchanges. At CoinJournal, we have written severally about these immediate jumps. For example, in this article, we wrote that STG surged after Binance listed Stargate Finance’s token. And in this report, we noted that EOS had soared after the EOS/USDT pair was listed in Binance.

However, these gains tend to be temporary in nature. In some cases, they are usually pushed by insiders who had the information of the listing before it happened. For a thinly traded coin like Audius, a few insiders can easily tilt the balance between demand and supply. 

For starters, Audius is a company that seeks to change the music industry using blockchain technology. It is a Spotify disruptor that makes it possible for independent musicians to list their music and monetize it. According to is website, the Jayson Derulo and Katy Perry-backed company, said that it has over 7 million monthly active users.

Audius price prediction

AUDIO chart by TradingView

The other reason why the Audius price is about to pull back is linked to its chart patterns. As shown above, the token has been in a bullish trend in the past few days after it pulled back to a low of $0.2570 on Wednesday. This rebound is part of the coin’s formation of a double-top pattern at about $0.3650. In price action analysis, this pattern is usually one of the most accurate reversal patterns.

Therefore, I suspect that the AUDIO crypto will reverse in the coming days and retest the neckline of the double-top at $0.2565. A move below this level will see the coin drop to the next key support at $0.1975.

How to buy Audius

Bitstamp

Bitstamp is a leading cryptocurrency exchange which offers trading in fiat currencies or popular cryptocurrencies. Bitstamp is a fully regulated company which offers users an intuitive interface, a high degree of security for your digital assets, excellent customer support and multiple withdrawal methods.

Buy AUDIO with Bitstamp today

Binance

Binance is one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world. It is better suited to more experienced investors and it offers a large number of cryptocurrencies to choose from, at over 600. Binance is also known for having low trading fees and a multiple of trading options that its users can benefit from, such as; peer-to-peer trading, margin trading and spot trading.

Buy AUDIO with Binance today

The post Audius price is up by 95% in 7 days: brace for a major pullback appeared first on CoinJournal.

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115-page doc shows big tech firms, airlines and government entities owed by FTX

  • The 115-page document was filed by FTX lawyers in the US Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.
  • The list of creditors shows all those owed money by the collapse FTX crypto exchange.
  • The document however redacts the names of individual customers whose money is stuck in FTX.

A 115-page document (creditor matrix) filed on late January 25 by the lawyers of the collapse FTX crypto exchange has revealed the list of big tech companies, crypto firms, airlines, media outlets, hotels, banks, charities, government entities, venture capital firms, and local businesses near FTX Bahamas headquarters whose money is stuck in FTX.

The document has shocked many since the majority thought that FTX only worked with crypto-based firms and no government entity was involved.

Creditors listed in the document

The document only listed entities but redacted the names of the nearly 9.7 million individual customers whose funds are stuck in the collapsed exchange.

Prominent crypto and web3 companies including entities of Binance, Circle, Galaxy Digital, Bittrex, Coinbase, Yuga Labs, Sky Mavis, Messari, and Chainalysis have been listed in the document

Big tech companies including Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Microsoft, Twitter, and LinkedIn have been captured in the document and media outlets including New York Times, CoinDesk, and The Wall Street Journal have also been mentioned.

Shockingly according to the document, FTX also owes money to tax offices of several US state agencies and the federal Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in addition to government entities in Australia, Hong Kong, and Japan.

In addition to large companies, FTX also owes funds to a Nassau-based pest control business and a garden centre, FTX’s prior public relations company M Group.

It is however important to note that the entities appearing on the list did not necessarily have a trading account with FTX.

The post 115-page doc shows big tech firms, airlines and government entities owed by FTX appeared first on CoinJournal.

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Aptos (APT) hits new all-time high above $18 after 400% rally

  • Aptos price rose 44% to hit an all-time high of $18.50 on OKX.
  • The Layer 1 blockchain launched in October last year, and its native token has soared more than 400% in the past 30-days.
  • Analysts suggest APT price could pare some of the gains as suggested by negative funding rates.

The Aptos (APT) token has hit a new all-time high amid fresh buying pressure for the layer 1 blockchain platform’s native token.

Aptos shines amid crypto market rally

Aptos, whose mainnet launch was in October last year, is a cryptocurrency platform developed by two ex-Meta Platforms staff. The smart contracts-enabled blockchain had somewhat a rough start, with controversy surrounding its token distribution. 

However, its native token has enjoyed one of the best runs in recent weeks, outperforming the leading cryptocurrencies by market cap amid a broader rally across the digital assets market.

On Wednesday, the price of Aptos rose more than 44% to push the token to above $18.00 across major exchanges. Indeed, the token hit an all-time high of $18.50 on OKX. 

Chart showing Aptos price on OKX. APT surged to highs of $18.50 on the exchange. Source: TradingView

In reaching the new peak, the APT token had rallied more than 136% in the past week. According to data from CoinGecko, the token had surged more than 400% over the past 30 days, with APT having changed hands around $3.69 on 25 December 2022.

Aptos’ total market cap has jumped to over $2.7 billion and APT currently ranks as the 28th largest cryptocurrency project.

What next for Aptos token price?

Can APT price continue its vertical movement? It is likely the coin could still test new highs as the optimism around Bitcoin and some of the top altcoins drive market speculation. However, on-chain data suggests there is a chance the price begins to fall sharply amid profit booking.

One suggestion that bulls may give up some of the gains is the negative funding rates. Pseudonymous crypto trader HornHairs pointed this out earlier Wednesday.

Another crypto trader Altcoin Sherpa thinks APT may provide a great short opportunity later, suggesting that shorting the coin at current levels might not be the safer bet. Instead, he points to a scenario where there is a lower high in play.

The post Aptos (APT) hits new all-time high above $18 after 400% rally appeared first on CoinJournal.