Cardano price analysis: Is it safe to buy the ADA dip?

Cardano price crashed below an important support level on Tuesday as sentiment crashed. ADA dropped to a low of $0.3870, which was the lowest level since May. It has crashed by more than 87% from its highest level in 2021. As a result, the total market cap has plunged from over $90 billion to about $13 billion.

Why is ADA crashing?

Cardano came in the limelight in 2021 as cryptocurrency prices soared. At the time, the coin became popular as investors started comparing it to Ethereum. As a proof-of-stake (PoS), most analysts believed that it could become a better alternative to Ethereum.

However, the situation has changed since then. Most cryptocurrency prices crashed in 2022. At the same time, Cardano has not achieved a lot of success as most analysts were expecting. This is partly because at its peak, Cardano was a shell that had no smart contract capabilities. 

It powered this capability in 2021 through its Alonzo hard fork. Still, in more than a year, the network has not become as vibrant as most people were expecting. Developers have for long insisted that there are thousands of projects being built using the network. 

However, a closer look shows that only a handful of these projects are actually in operation. Those that do, like SundaeSwap and MuesliSwap, have a significantly small market share. For example, only $70 million is locked in Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem. And in this, Minswap has a market dominance of 51%.

Cardano also has no meaningful market share in other sectors like NFTs and the metaverse, which explains why its token has crashed. Most importantly, the recently launched Vasil upgrade is not expected to have a major impact. Another important aspect is that the number of Cardano stakers has been falling.

Cardano price prediction

The daily chart shows that ADA price has been in a strong sell-off lately. It has crashed by almost 80% from its highest level on record. As a result, it has remained below all moving averages. The coin also formed a descending triangle pattern. On Tuesday, it managed to move below the lower side of this pattern. 

Also, the coin is hovering slightly above the lowest level this year. Therefore, there is a high probability that the coin will now continue falling now that sellers have prevailed. If this happens, the next key level to watch will be at $0.35.

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Will crypto investors flee Portugal following introduction of capital gains tax?

For the last few years, Portugal has become a safe haven for crypto investors.

With many having moved there throughout the pandemic, as crypto rocketed up to high after high, the rug is now being pulled out from under them.

The Portuguese government has proposed a new cryptocurrency tax policy as part of its 2023 national budget. Contained within the 450-page document covering all things fiscal, is a 28% capital gains tax on cryptocurrency gains.

This 28% capital gains tax is the standard within Portugal, meaning it is no longer a paradise for crypto bros and brodettes. Tacked on, too, is a 4% tax on free crypto transfers as well as further stamp duties in certain instances.

Importantly, however, gains via sales of crypto held for greater than one year will still be exempt from such tax. This means the capital gains tax proposed is more of trading tax, in reality.

Portugal had previously hinted at this

This move does not come as a surprise. Minister of Finance Fernando Medina had announced in May that the move to bring cryptocurrency within the capital gains net would come sooner rather than later.

The decision comes off the back of the move to reclassify cryptocurrency as an investment rather than money, meaning it will now get caught by capital gains tax.

Lisbon and Madeira 

Lisbon, the capital city of Portugal, is viewed as one of the European crypto hubs, partially due to the (previously? ) lax crypto laws. Portugal also offers an easier route than many nations to residency, further attracting crypto investors.

It will be interesting to see how this will affect things going forward. The race between jurisdictions to establish themselves as European crypto hotspots has been competitive. Maderia, the Portuguese island from where superstar footballer Cristiano Ronaldo hails, sent a signal of intent at the most recent Bitcoin conference in Miami by announcing Bitcoin as legal tender.

Lugano, a small city in Switzerland, are the only other spot in Europe where Bitcoin is de facto legal tender. In addition to Bitcoin, the stablecoin Tether is also de facto legal tender, while a Lugano-specific stablecoin is also in the works.

Final thoughts

As the bear market roars and investors are hurting everywhere, it does bear reminding that one needs to secure gains to be caught by capital gains tax.

The move to charge capital gains tax likely won’t hurt in the short term, therefore. Remember, any gains from longer than a year ago are immune. And given Bitcoin traded at $69,000 eleven months ago, it’s probably unlikely that there are many traders worried about this 28% tax imminently. Silver lining?

Nonetheless, it will be interesting to track whether crypto enthusiasts begin to set up shop elsewhere, as Lugano and other places continue to push to attract their digital money.

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Portugal working on new crypto tax legislation to levy 28% capital gains tax

An official report released by the Portuguese government shows that the country is working on a new cryptocurrency tax legislation scheduled for enacting in 2023.

The new legislation intends to levy a 28% capital gains tax on crypto profits, a 4%, and stamp duties on any free cryptocurrency transactions.

28% capital gains tax

If the proposed crypto legislation sees the light of day, the Portuguese government will levy a 28% capital gains tax on crypto profits made within a year. However, gains made for holding cryptocurrency assets for a year will not be subjected to the capital gains tax.

According to the 450-page report, gains made from crypto issuing and crypto mining would be subject to the capital gains tax.

4% tax on crypto transactions

In addition to the capital gains tax, the Portuguese government also seeks to introduce a 4% tax and if necessary stamp duties on free crypto transactions.

The idea is to provide a flawless framework for crypto taxes and treat the industry equally with other businesses within the country.

Portuguese parliament stand on cryptocurrencies

In May this year, the Portuguese finance minister said that the country was preparing to start taxing cryptocurrencies, stating that work would begin on working on the legal framework. 

The minister had however declined to provide the legal timeframe at the time.

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Bitcoin risks dropping below $19k soon: Can the bulls defend this psychological level?

Bitcoin could drop below the $19k support level over the coming hours as the leading cryptocurrency has been underperforming so far today.

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency by market cap, has been underperforming over the last 24 hours. BTC has lost less than 1% of its value over the past few hours.

The poor performance comes despite the broader cryptocurrency market recording gains in the past 24 hours. The total cryptocurrency market cap is above $920 billion, as the market has added more than 4% to its value so far today.

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is also down by more than 1% and is now trading below $1,300 per coin.

With Bitcoin currently experiencing losses, the leading cryptocurrency could slip below the $19k level for the first time this month.

Key levels to watch

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish, as Bitcoin has been underperforming over the last few days. BTC has lost more than 4% of its value in the last seven days and could record further losses over the next few hours and days. 

BTC/USD Chart By TradingView

The MACD line has been below the neutral zone since Friday, October 7th, indicating that the bears are currently in control of the Bitcoin market.

The 14-day RSI of 31 shows that BTC could soon enter the oversold region if the bearish trend continues.

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $19,111. If the bearish trend is sustained, BTC could drop below the first major support level at $18,945 before the end of the day.

In the event of an extended bearish run, Bitcoin could trade around $18,700 for the first time in a month.

However, the broader market is bullish, and that could affect Bitcoin’s performance in the near term. If that happens, Bitcoin could make a move toward the $20k resistance level over the next few hours or days. 

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