Monat: September 2022

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Pro on crypto winter: Bitcoin bottom will occur in Q4

  • Bitcoin price is around $18,650 after falling to lows of $18,255 on Monday following another sell-off bout amid a prolonged crypto winter.
  • Analyst Rekt Capital says ‘typical market bottoms’ are often months in the making.
  • He expects BTC price bottom in Q4 this year.

Bitcoin has slumped below the $20,000 and seen a more than 7% dump take prices to lows around $18,255 early Monday.

The decline follows a broader weakness across risk-on assets as the broader market anticipates a massive interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve and equally higher raise from the Bank of England later this week.

If stocks fall further, Bitcoin (which has shown high correlation to movements in equities) will also likely trade lower.

Analyst on Bitcoin price outlook

According to pseudonymous crypto analyst Rekt Capital, it’s likely Bitcoin will continue to struggle with bearish pressure over coming weeks. He tweeted: 

“Typical BTC Bear Market bottoms tend to take months to develop before a new macro uptrend begins. BTC has been meandering at current prices for only a few weeks – history suggests it is too premature to expect a full-blown macro trend reversal so soon.”

On when he expects a Bitcoin bottom, Rekt says it’s likely later in Q4 this year. The analyst bases his perspective on the historical price movement in relation to Bitcoin halving – a four year cycle event that sees new BTC creation (or mining rewards per block) cut in half as the total number of mineable BTC shrinks.

The last halving in 2020 saw miner rewards reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, and this will further fall to 3.125 at the next halving set for 2024.

 “In 2015, BTC bottomed 547 days before the Halving. In 2018, BTC bottomed 517 days before the Halving (discount March 2020 crash). If Bitcoin is going to bottom 517-547 days before the upcoming April 2024 Halving…then the bottom will occur in Q4 this year,” Rekt wrote.

The post Pro on crypto winter: Bitcoin bottom will occur in Q4 appeared first on CoinJournal.

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Where is optimism OP after Ethereum Merge?

  • Optimism token has, alongside L2 Ethereum solutions been surging ahead of the Merge.

  • Optimism witnessed strong fundamentals in July and August.

  • OP could fall by a further 22%.

Optimism OP/USD is a Layer-2 scaling for the Ethereum network. Its role is to facilitate less costly and quick transactions on Ethereum. Following the Ethereum Merge, eyes were on alternatives and scaling layers for price reaction. Since the Merge has occurred, it is crucial to evaluate how Optimism has reacted. 

Well, Optimism was the talk of the streets in July and early August as prices pumped. Whereas the gains were driven largely by speculations, a couple of fundamentals helped. One includes the liquidity mining program which Optimism launched on Aave in early August. The development pushed the deposits on Aave to Optimism up by a significant 493%. 

The Ethereum Merge was also adding momentum to Optimism. The Merge is expected to increase the role of scaling solutions through a “Rollup-Centric Roadmap.” The roadmap allows Ethereum to become the data availability and settlement layer. It will leave the scaling role to Layer-2 Protocols.

OP risks another 22% drop as price falls post-Merge

Technicals are not convincing for the Optimism token. On the daily chart, the price drop coincides with a MACD crossover to the bear zone. That allowed the price to fall below the moving averages. 

Source – TradingView

Assuming an extended correction, OP will fall back to the late August lows of $0.98. That represents a drop of around 22%. The bearish prediction will be invalidated if the price recovers above the 20-MA. It should be confirmed with a clear reversal and improved sentiment.

Concluding thoughts

Optimism could continue to fall despite the expected benefit from the Merge. It suggests that the token already benefited from the post-Merge expectations. $0.98 is the next bottom for OP.

The post Where is optimism OP after Ethereum Merge? appeared first on CoinJournal.