Bitcoin touches $24,600 as bulls eye best month since October 2021

Bitcoin touched a high of $24,666 on Coinbase to leave the benchmark cryptocurrency on the cusp of its best monthly performance since October 2021.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to highs of $24,666 on US crypto exchange Coinbase on Saturday, hitting its highest price level since mid-June.

BTC/USD is looking to establish fresh support after retesting the 200-week moving average zone, which could be key to bulls plans to edge higher.

Chart showing BTC/USD monthly performance. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin on track for best month since October

The flagship cryptocurrency, which remains above the $24,500 level despite a brief lull late Saturday, is also on track to record its best monthly performance in nine months.

With gains of over 23% in July, BTC/USD is positioned to see its monthly returns the best since seeing nearly 40% in October 2021.

Bitcoin is also registering a positive monthly return for the first time since March when the 30-day performance stood at around 5.4%. Over the three months of April, May and June, Bitcoin price fell by almost 68%, which leaves July as a very good month for bulls.

On-chain, exchange macro outflows have continued as hodlers dug in amid the crypto winter. According to Glassnode, exchange balances have fallen to just about 12.6% of circulating supply, representing 2.4 million BTC.

Bitcoin’s latest upside followed a broader market reaction to the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike last Wednesday, and mirrored gains across the US indexes where the S&P 500 closed the week more than 4% higher and Nasdaq ended with +4.7%. 

Over the month, the S&P 500 gained more than 9%, while the Nasdaq added over 12%.

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CoinShares: A dovish Fed and weaker dollar could benefit Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to outperform in the face of a dovish flip from the US Federal Reserve and a weaker US dollar, according to digital assets manager CoinShares.

The firm’s bullish outlook for BTC comes amid a sharp bounce for cryptocurrencies on the back of the Fed’s 0.75% interest rate hike and recession talk. But this upside also comes in a bearish run that saw BTC price fall to $17,600 and then struggle to break above $22,000.

CoinShares says the “hiatus” could give way to an outperformance for the flagship cryptocurrency, including a decoupling from equities.

Although Bitcoin’s price performance has been weak in the face of an aggressive FED, this current hiatus in price performance may be short-lived,” the firm explained in the Twitter thread.

A dovish Fed will be bullish for BTC

The Fed’s hawkish tilt has been necessary as the central bank looks to control rising inflation, but market analysts believe the monetary policy could flip dovish to aid economic growth and employment. In its assessment, CoinShares suggests such a move could result in weakness for the US dollar – a combination of macro factors that could buoy a fresh rally in Bitcoin.

While we believe we are likely to see the US Federal Reserve continue to hike interest rates through the summer,” the asset manager noted, “we also believe they are likely to adopt a softer outlook on economic growth thereafter, prompting considerable dollar weakness.”

On what could happen in the market due to these factors, the firm says a decoupling from stocks is likely, with this scenario more likely amid “recession or stagflation.”

Bitcoin was trading around $24,600 on Saturday evening, up more than 8% this past week and 23% in the past 30 days. 

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Babel Finance lost $280 million of customer funds: report

Babel’s losses included 8,000 BTC and 56,000 ETH wiped out in unhedged proprietary trading positions, a proposal deck cited in a recent report detailed.

Babel Finance, an embattled crypto lender that froze customer withdrawals in June amid the crypto market crash, reportedly lost over $280 million of its customers’ funds in bad trading bets, The Block reported citing the crypto company’s restructuring proposal deck.

Per details in the proposal, the Babel Finance’s losses came via proprietary trading of 8,000 bitcoin (BTC) and 56,000 ether (ETH). The failed bets happened last month as the platform faced liquidation amid massive deleveraging across the crypto market.

The firm says in the deck that as BTC price plunged from $30,000 to $20,000, unhedged positions “chalked up significant losses, directly leading to forced liquidation of multiple Trading Accounts.” 

It’s these accounts that wiped out approximately 8k BTC and 56k ETH worth over $280 million in customer funds.

Capitulation and restructuring plans

Babel’s capitulation spiraled as its lending and trading units failed to meet margin calls – and no customer funds to continue honouring withdrawals.

Trouble hit not long after the financial services provider raised $80 million in its Series B financing round in May. The financing, secured at a valuation of $2 billion, saw investments from Jeneration Capital, BAI Capital, 10T, Circle Ventures and Dragonfly Capital among other investors.

The market downturn and the proprietary trading failure has Babel Finance trending alongside other troubled crypto firms like Voyager Digital and Celsius Network, which have both filed for bankruptcy. 

The collapse of crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) and the contagion that followed only heightened the uncertainty.

As part of its restructuring plans, the Babel team is looking to convert $150 million of its largest creditors’ debt into convertible bonds. The lender also seeks to add to its survival kit $250 million to $300 million via convertible bonds, with further funds likely to come from a $200 million revolving credit facility.

The plan, per the proposal deck, is to ultimately incorporate Babel Finance’s major creditors as shareholders.

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